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ATGE: Declining NCLEX Scores Could Have Negative Repercussions on Enrollment Growth at Chamberlain

April 5th, 2023

“Looking at our segments, total enrollment at Chamberlain continued to show modest improvement during the quarter, supported by the success of campus-based BSN programs” Stephen Beard, President and CEO...

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ATGE: A Storm Is Brewing as ATGE Celebrates Two Decades on a March to Nowhere for Shareholders

February 3rd, 2023

“And I'd also say, with the expansion of our nursing schools going forward, probably is somewhere around an incremental investment of $150 million in '23 compared to what we ran in '22. We didn't call...

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ATGE: Management Puts on a Brave Face as Starts Deteriorate

May 6th, 2022

Another quarter and another 20-25 minute earnings conference call where ATGE management attempted to blame COVID19 for all of their demand and operational woes.  There is no doubt that COVID19 has created a significant headwind for demand for nursing...

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ATGE: This Isn’t Just a COVID19 Problem; Reducing Estimates

February 9th, 2022

ATGE management would like investors to believe that the company’s disastrous 2Q22 results and weak outlook for the remainder of the year are solely a function of the surge in COVID19 case counts over the past 3-4 months.  There is no doubt that...

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ATGE: The Irrational Bid in Corporate America Remains Alive and Well, Now Comes the Hard Part for ATGE

January 24th, 2022

This morning ATGE announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement to sell its Financial Services division in two separate transactions for a combined purchase price of $1 billion.  First, ACAMS the...

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ATGE: Zombie Company Walking – How ATGE’s Leverage Could Quickly Blow Out to 6.0-7.0x EBITDA

January 21st, 2022

“Starting in the month of June, among our licensed registered nursing student body at Aspen University, working nurses were needed on the front lines for patient care and, frankly, showed clear signs of fatigue. This...

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PRDO: Borrower Defense to Repayment Claims Could Imperil PRDO’s Cash Balances; What About ATGE?

August 6th, 2021

“The most common types of conduct that might make a borrower eligible for loan relief through borrower defense to repayment discharge are misrepresentations of the truth made by the school or its representatives...

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ATGE: The Walden Conundrum and Other Suspect Reasoning

February 3rd, 2021

“Despite the tremendous opportunity at the Company, we have serious concerns about the ability of the Board of Directors (the “Board”) and management team to realize the Company’s true potential, allocate capital appropriately, and...

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ATGE: The March to Nowhere Continues; Revised Estimates

August 19th, 2020

“What I mentioned before was not so much decline in ACAMS, but our desire to see it grow a lot faster, given what we know are the opportunities…. So from our perspective, we're at an inflection point at ACAMS, growth has plateaued a...

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ATGE: The Company’s 3Q20 Margin Miracle Is a Mirage; Don’t Be Too Quick to Celebrate Chamberlain Start Growth,...

May 6th, 2020

“The increase in segment operating income is the result of strong Chamberlain enrollment trends and efforts to increase efficiency and reduce travel and discretionary spend, partially offset by...

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ATGE: Are You Insulted? At the Very Least Investors Should Be Gravely Concerned About the Sudden Surge in Bad-Debt...

February 5th, 2020

We’re nearly four years into the Wardell regime at ATGE and there are only a few things that we can conclusively state about the current management team at the company: They appear...

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ATGE: Management Slashes Guidance; Remember When Nursing, Med, and Vet Schools Were Supposed to Be Growth Platforms?

October 30th, 2019

“Overall, we're pleased with our top line growth in the quarter, and we believe our stepped-up investments in marketing, along with increased corporate cost discipline position us well to...

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ATGE: 4Q19 - When Corporate Overhead Becomes a “Plug” to Meet Consensus EPS Expectations, While Enrollment Metrics...

August 23rd, 2019

Question – Jeffrey Marc Silber: Okay. And then sorry, just one more question on the quarter. Just looking at some of the details, if I look at the home office expense, even...

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ATGE: Don’t Let the Headline Numbers Fool You, the Business Remains on a March to Nowhere

November 2nd, 2018

To put it simply, ATGE trades like a company that generates mid-to-high single digit YOY organic revenue growth consistently. Every year for the past seven years, ATGE management (both prior and current) has dangled a mid-single...

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ATGE: In the Nursing Market, There’s Nowhere to Run to, Nowhere to Hide

June 22nd, 2018

“The first slide talks about demand for nursing, and I know this is a frequent question that many of you have. And the data are conflicting. There's a lot of disagreement in the marketplace about whether there is or will be a shortage,...

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ATGE: Mediocrity Yes, Quality No

May 4th, 2018

We’re going to keep things brief here. The current ATGE management team has always favored style over substance, particularly in their shareholder communications.  Management has spent an inordinate amount of time crafting a growth narrative around the company when in reality...

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ATGE: The “New Adtalem” Looks a Lot Like the Old DeVry

February 7th, 2018

For the past 18-24 months ATGE bulls have argued that the removal of DVU from the company’s portfolio of education assets would result in meaningful share price appreciation.  For many an ATGE investor, DVU’s severe revenue declines and modest...

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ATGE: How Much Would You Pay to Change a Story? For ATGE the Price STARTS at $7.5 Million

December 5th, 2017

In a move that has been telegraphed for some time but occurred sooner than expected, ATGE announced that it has reached an agreement with Cogswell Education to “sell” DVU.  The headline purchase price is $1,...

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ATGE: Games People Play – Management Continues to Try to “Fake It Until They Make It” While Diluting the Core...

November 3rd, 2017

“Games people play, You take it or leave it Things that they say, Just don't make it right If I'm tellin' you the truth right now, do you believe it Games people play in...

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FOR-PROFIT EDU: STRA and CPLA - A Merger Forged Out of Necessity, If Not Fear of Survival

October 30th, 2017

This morning STRA and CPLA announced their intention to “merge” in an all-stock deal.  CPLA shareholders will receive 0.875 shares of STRA stock for each share they own.  Although this transaction has been...

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ATGE: Boxed Into a Corner as We Approach Stall Speed

August 18th, 2017

“Our transformation is well underway, as reflected in our heightened focus on our student-centric culture, our new corporate name and our improving financial performance.” Lisa Wardell, CEO Adtalem Global Education, Inc. 8/17/17 Well at least...

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DV: When the “Charm Offensive” Ends and Reality Sets In, DV’s Nursing Problem Will Become the Central Issue, Meet...

May 23rd, 2017

“This is a notable earnings call for me as it marks 1 year since I assumed the CEO position in May of 2016. We have accomplished a great deal in a short period of time, and we're well...

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DV: Following the Worst Enrollment Intake in the History of DeVry Education Group, Bulls Appear to Be Counting on Hope...

February 3rd, 2017

“Let's begin What where why or when Will all be explained Why destruction is a game See I'm not insane In fact I'm kind of rational….” Boogie Down...

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DV: Trying to “Separate the Game from the Truth” as Ross & AUC Face Structural Challenges and Chamberlain’s...

February 1st, 2017

“All I do is separate the game from the truth” Wallace, Christopher. “One More Chance”. Ready To Die.  Bad Boy, 1994. We think the quote above perfectly...

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DV: DeVry Has a Massive Nursing Problem; Time to Short Excess Pricing (and Profits) Generated from RN-BSN Programs

December 16th, 2016

                “I've got depth of perception in my text y'all I get props at my mention 'cause I vex y'all So what'cha...

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DV: Meet the New Boss; Same as the Old Boss? Either Way the Central Elements of Our Short Thesis Continue to Come to...

August 19th, 2016

Over the years, there are few things that we have looked forward to less than listening to DV earnings conference calls.  For the most part, the conference calls and presentations during the...

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DV: FTC and Dept. of Ed. Actions Confirm What We’ve Known All Along, There’s No Way DVU Has a 90% Job Placement...

January 27th, 2016

For once, it appears that DV management might has gotten something right in their “fearless” forecasting – the FTC investigation from our perspective has come to its “logical close”.  We...

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DV: Buying at 20x When Trading for 4x EBITDA Might Not Be Good for Long Term IRR’s

December 15th, 2015

At DeVry Brasil, executing our game plan continues to be about adding valued acquisitions, launching new programs, marketing effectiveness and achieving operating leverage. By the way, we expect FX to moderate over the planning...

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DV: Drowning in a Sea of Useless Anecdotes While Critical Operating Issues Remain Unresolved, Lowering Target to $20

August 19th, 2015

Recently in one of our research notes about Zillow we wrote the following:“Investors love anecdotes about companies; they represent the “broth” in the mosaic theory “soup” we create on any...

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DV: APOL by Another Name? Lowering Target to $25

April 23rd, 2015

We’re thinking of a for-profit education company that operates a large national university with a strong presence in nursing, a big online platform, and a heavy mix of bachelor’s degree students that also owns a group of international universities.  Can you guess...

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Current Ideas

EXPI

SELL/SHORT

$4

HUSQ.B

SELL

$50

UFPI

SELL/SHORT

$45

TREX

SHORT

$18

PRDO

SELL/SHORT

$5

STRA

SELL/SHORT

$42

CWH

LONG

$75

OSTK

LONG

$128

CM

SELL/SHORT

$50

RY

SELL/SHORT

$50

ARC

LONG

$5.50

AYI

SHORT

$50

BIG

SHORT

$28

WWE

LONG

$65

XOXO

LONG

$37

RLGY

PAIR TRADE

$10

RDFN

PAIR TRADE

$30

BCO

LONG

$35

ING.PA

SHORT

$35

TRUP

SELL/SHORT

$10

CTC

SHORT

$101

ATGE

SHORT

$15

HCG.TO

SHORT

$0

RON.TO

SHORT

$9

ESI

SHORT

$0

BGG

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

TTC

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

Z

SHORT

$14.00

NA.TO

SHORT

$22

ZU

SHORT

$15

TRLA

SHORT

$20

MCRS

SHORT

$31

APOL

SHORT

$35

OPEN

SHORT

$30

KNL

PAIR - LONG KNL/SHORT MLHR

25%

CSGP

SHORT

$100

GCA

LONG

$8

IPSU

LONG

$20

MLHR

SHORT

$22

LOOP

PAIR - LONG CSGP/SHORT LOOP

40%

THQI

LONG

$35

WPO

SHORT

$275

COCO

SHORT

$0

HNI

SIG

RGR