Log In

DV: When the “Charm Offensive” Ends and Reality Sets In, DV’s Nursing Problem Will Become the Central Issue, Meet...

May 23rd, 2017

“This is a notable earnings call for me as it marks 1 year since I assumed the CEO position in May of 2016. We have accomplished a great deal in a short period of time, and we're well...

READ MORE >

HCG.TO: “Existence of Material Uncertainty – Future Funding Capabilities”, Reiterating $0 Price Objective

May 12th, 2017

HCG reported 1Q17 adjusted EPS of….. Just kidding.  Make no mistake the entity known as Home Capital Group and its primary lending subsidiary, Home Trust no longer exist.  As we argued a few...

READ MORE >

Z/ZG: Define Small

May 5th, 2017

“Mark, on the CFPB, we don't break out the amount of the revenue that comes from co-marketing efforts, but we have said and it continues to be the case that it's a small portion of overall revenue.” Kathleen Phillips, CFO Zillow, 1Q17 Earnings Conf. Call....

READ MORE >

Z/ZG: These Questions Need to Be Asked; It’s Time to Address the RESPA/CFPB Issue

May 4th, 2017

“Prior to and during the live conference call, investors may submit questions via Sli.do (www.slido.com).  By entering the event code #ZEarnings on the Sli.do homepage, participants will be placed into the queue where they...

READ MORE >

HCG.TO: Liquidation Looks Increasingly Likely, Reiterating $0 Price Objective

April 26th, 2017

               “If it keeps on rainin', levee's goin' to break If it keeps on rainin', levee's goin' to break When the levee breaks I'll have no place to...

READ MORE >

HCG.TO: Truthless, Rudderless, and Now Possibly Valueless, Taking Price Objective to $0

April 20th, 2017

“But I can't end the call without a little ditty that someone passed on to me of how people in the 19th century dealt with shorts. And the little ditty goes something like this. He who sells what isn't his'n, must...

READ MORE >

AYI: Management Has a Vision, Just Not a Clear One, Lowering Price Objective to $108

April 4th, 2017

Truth be told, we’ve all seen this happen before: A management team gets praised for consistently beating numbers and its “long term vision” for the company during the early stage of a product/economic cycle. ...

READ MORE >

NA.TO/Canadian Housing: “Extend and Pretend” Is Alive and Well in the Prairies; How Well Capitalized Are the...

March 22nd, 2017

“Our customers have shown tremendous courage and we’re matching that by sticking with them to the best of our best ability. We believe that working with customers to help get them to a...

READ MORE >

Z/ZG: Is Zillow’s Lender Co-Marketing Strategy under Increased Scrutiny from the CFPB?

March 9th, 2017

Approximately 18-months ago, we published a report entitled: “Is Zillow’s ARPA Growth Miracle Over? The Demise of the “MSA” in the Mortgage Channel Suggests It Could Be, Reducing Estimates”.  In...

READ MORE >

BIG: The Days of Leveraging Without Comps Are Over and the Implications Should Concern BIG Investors

March 3rd, 2017

“There is always a heavy demand for fresh mediocrity. In every generation the least cultivated taste has the largest appetite.” Paul Gauguin Following another 90-minute conference call in which...

READ MORE >

Z/ZG: Investing for Growth or the Cost of Doing Business? A Closer Look at the “Funnel” Suggests Growth for this...

February 8th, 2017

In many ways the investment case for or against Zillow increasingly can be distilled to one single question: Does the company’s current cost structure reflect investments for growth or simply...

READ MORE >

HCG.TO: Pondering the Existential Questions Facing HCG

February 7th, 2017

It’s been an interesting start to 2017 for HCG.  The stock is down a meager (-5.0%) YTD, which belies the drastic change in investor sentiment around the company.  Several major brokerage firms have downgraded HCG shares over the past 4-6...

READ MORE >

DV: Following the Worst Enrollment Intake in the History of DeVry Education Group, Bulls Appear to Be Counting on Hope...

February 3rd, 2017

“Let's begin What where why or when Will all be explained Why destruction is a game See I'm not insane In fact I'm kind of rational….” Boogie Down...

READ MORE >

DV: Trying to “Separate the Game from the Truth” as Ross & AUC Face Structural Challenges and Chamberlain’s...

February 1st, 2017

“All I do is separate the game from the truth” Wallace, Christopher. “One More Chance”. Ready To Die.  Bad Boy, 1994. We think the quote above perfectly...

READ MORE >

AYI: Time Is on Our Side as AYI Enters the First Phase of “Re-Rating”; Lowering Price Objective to $129

January 10th, 2017

When we first introduced AYI as a short idea approximately 9-months ago, the largest pushback on the merits of our investment thesis related to the perceived quality of the company’s management team. ...

READ MORE >

AYI: Lighting Agent Survey - Pricing Pressure on LED Lighting Products Continues to Mount

December 22nd, 2016

We recently completed a survey of lighting agents across the country. The feedback from our survey confirms our view that: Revenue growth in the lighting industry has started to slow Pricing pressure on LED products...

READ MORE >

DV: DeVry Has a Massive Nursing Problem; Time to Short Excess Pricing (and Profits) Generated from RN-BSN Programs

December 16th, 2016

                “I've got depth of perception in my text y'all I get props at my mention 'cause I vex y'all So what'cha...

READ MORE >

BIG: Celebrating Mediocrity, While Investors Are Left to Ponder How Long Financial Engineering Can Prop Up EPS,...

December 5th, 2016

“It's just that I've never seen people celebrate mediocrity the way you do.” Jack Byrnes (Robert DeNiro). Meet the Fockers. Dir. Jay Roach. Universal Studios 2004. For...

READ MORE >

Canadian Housing: Losses on the Ground Are Real; When Will the Banks Start Taking Provisions On Their Credit Exposure...

November 23rd, 2016

“As cooler weather starts driving up heating costs, Calgary distress centres are finding more people who once earned steady incomes are now struggling to pay their bills and seeking relief with...

READ MORE >

Z/ZG: Tick, Tick, Tick…. Time Is Running Out on the Growth of the Premier Agent Advertising Program as the Top of the...

November 2nd, 2016

Zillow management did it again. The company guided down for the forward quarter and “talked down” margin expectations for the out year. This has become a tried and true practice for...

READ MORE >

PAA Research's 2016 Canadian Mortgage Broker Survey: A New Era in the Canadian Housing Market

November 2nd, 2016

We recently conducted a survey of 148 mortgage brokers located across Canada. The key findings from our survey include: Home price weaknes is becoming more broad based The underlying bid for housing remains...

READ MORE >

CSGP: Who’s Going to Give Them Credit for 2018 When Everything’s Slowing?

October 27th, 2016

“….but I do want to remind everybody that CoStar has shown again and again and again that we are able to reduce costs after an investment initiative. We are very good at that and we need credit for that.” Andy...

READ MORE >

AYI: Now the Shot Clock on Growth Is Officially Ticking, Just Ask the Dept. of Energy

October 6th, 2016

Yes, it’s true that AYI does not provide earnings guidance for investors, but the manner in which the company handled its latest earnings release has to be viewed as troubling.  AYI missed by a wide margin on both the top...

READ MORE >

Canadian Housing: The Wind of Change

October 4th, 2016

Will Monday, October 3, 2016 be remembered as the day that the housing market in Ontario peaked?  Maybe.  In a move that appears to have shaken the Canadian housing market to its core (or at least rattled a few branches), Minister of Finance, Bill Morneau announced a...

READ MORE >

ESI: Closing Out ESI Short Idea with a 100% Gain; Let the Record Show that the Blame for ESI’s Demise Lies with...

September 23rd, 2016

“How did you go bankrupt? Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly” Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises ITT Educational Services ceased to exist as of September 16th.  The...

READ MORE >

BIG: Financial Engineering Has Run Its Course and “Jennifer” Is Nowhere to Be Found; Time to Get Short

August 25th, 2016

“Financial engineering is the use of mathematical techniques to solve financial problems. Financial engineering uses tools and knowledge from the fields of computer science, statistics, economics and applied...

READ MORE >

DV: Meet the New Boss; Same as the Old Boss? Either Way the Central Elements of Our Short Thesis Continue to Come to...

August 19th, 2016

Over the years, there are few things that we have looked forward to less than listening to DV earnings conference calls.  For the most part, the conference calls and presentations during the...

READ MORE >

Z/ZG: Leads Don’t Grow to the Sky and Other Troublesome Comments from Management

August 5th, 2016

Believe it or not, there was a time even after we adopted a bearish stance on Zillow’s stock that we were allowed to ask questions on the company’s earnings conference calls.  Unfortunately we asked too many difficult...

READ MORE >

HCG.TO: Can You See It Now? HCG Is a Shrinking Lender with Declining Margins, Enormous Credit Risk, and Potential...

July 28th, 2016

To anyone (ourselves included) that has followed the publicly available financial data on Home Trust from OSFI over the past few months, it is not a surprise that the company once again missed...

READ MORE >

HCG.TO: In the Biggest Housing Bull Market in the History of Canada, HCG Still Can’t Grow Their Loan Book –...

July 20th, 2016

HCG is desperate. How do we know this? Well certainly in this case actions speak louder than words.  Consider the following steps the company has taken over the past 6-12 months to shore up...

READ MORE >

Scroll to load more

Current Ideas

HCG.TO

SHORT

$0

AYI

SHORT

$129

RON.TO

SHORT

$9

BIG

SHORT

$28

ESI

SHORT

$0

DV

SHORT

$15

BGG

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

TTC

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

Z

SHORT

$14.00

NA.TO

SHORT

$22

ING.PA

SHORT

$35

ZU

SHORT

$15

TRLA

SHORT

$20

MCRS

SHORT

$31

APOL

SHORT

$35

OPEN

SHORT

$30

BCO

LONG

$35

WWE

LONG

$25

KNL

PAIR - LONG KNL/SHORT MLHR

25%

XOXO

LONG

$20

CSGP

SHORT

$100

GCA

LONG

$8

IPSU

LONG

$20

MLHR

SHORT

$22

ARC

LONG

$12.50

LOOP

PAIR - LONG CSGP/SHORT LOOP

40%

THQI

LONG

$35

WPO

SHORT

$275

COCO

SHORT

$0

HNI

SIG

RGR