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Recent Reports

HCG.TO: Liquidation Looks Increasingly Likely, Reiterating $0 Price Objective

April 26th, 2017

               “If it keeps on rainin', levee's goin' to break If it keeps on rainin', levee's goin' to break When the levee breaks I'll have no place to...

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HCG.TO: Truthless, Rudderless, and Now Possibly Valueless, Taking Price Objective to $0

April 20th, 2017

“But I can't end the call without a little ditty that someone passed on to me of how people in the 19th century dealt with shorts. And the little ditty goes something like this. He who sells what isn't his'n, must...

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AYI: Management Has a Vision, Just Not a Clear One, Lowering Price Objective to $108

April 4th, 2017

Truth be told, we’ve all seen this happen before: A management team gets praised for consistently beating numbers and its “long term vision” for the company during the early stage of a product/economic cycle. ...

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NA.TO/Canadian Housing: “Extend and Pretend” Is Alive and Well in the Prairies; How Well Capitalized Are the...

March 22nd, 2017

“Our customers have shown tremendous courage and we’re matching that by sticking with them to the best of our best ability. We believe that working with customers to help get them to a...

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Z/ZG: Is Zillow’s Lender Co-Marketing Strategy under Increased Scrutiny from the CFPB?

March 9th, 2017

Approximately 18-months ago, we published a report entitled: “Is Zillow’s ARPA Growth Miracle Over? The Demise of the “MSA” in the Mortgage Channel Suggests It Could Be, Reducing Estimates”.  In...

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BIG: The Days of Leveraging Without Comps Are Over and the Implications Should Concern BIG Investors

March 3rd, 2017

“There is always a heavy demand for fresh mediocrity. In every generation the least cultivated taste has the largest appetite.” Paul Gauguin Following another 90-minute conference call in which...

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Z/ZG: Investing for Growth or the Cost of Doing Business? A Closer Look at the “Funnel” Suggests Growth for this...

February 8th, 2017

In many ways the investment case for or against Zillow increasingly can be distilled to one single question: Does the company’s current cost structure reflect investments for growth or simply...

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HCG.TO: Pondering the Existential Questions Facing HCG

February 7th, 2017

It’s been an interesting start to 2017 for HCG.  The stock is down a meager (-5.0%) YTD, which belies the drastic change in investor sentiment around the company.  Several major brokerage firms have downgraded HCG shares over the past 4-6...

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DV: Following the Worst Enrollment Intake in the History of DeVry Education Group, Bulls Appear to Be Counting on Hope...

February 3rd, 2017

“Let's begin What where why or when Will all be explained Why destruction is a game See I'm not insane In fact I'm kind of rational….” Boogie Down...

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DV: Trying to “Separate the Game from the Truth” as Ross & AUC Face Structural Challenges and Chamberlain’s...

February 1st, 2017

“All I do is separate the game from the truth” Wallace, Christopher. “One More Chance”. Ready To Die.  Bad Boy, 1994. We think the quote above perfectly...

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AYI: Time Is on Our Side as AYI Enters the First Phase of “Re-Rating”; Lowering Price Objective to $129

January 10th, 2017

When we first introduced AYI as a short idea approximately 9-months ago, the largest pushback on the merits of our investment thesis related to the perceived quality of the company’s management team. ...

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AYI: Lighting Agent Survey - Pricing Pressure on LED Lighting Products Continues to Mount

December 22nd, 2016

We recently completed a survey of lighting agents across the country. The feedback from our survey confirms our view that: Revenue growth in the lighting industry has started to slow Pricing pressure on LED products...

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DV: DeVry Has a Massive Nursing Problem; Time to Short Excess Pricing (and Profits) Generated from RN-BSN Programs

December 16th, 2016

                “I've got depth of perception in my text y'all I get props at my mention 'cause I vex y'all So what'cha...

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BIG: Celebrating Mediocrity, While Investors Are Left to Ponder How Long Financial Engineering Can Prop Up EPS,...

December 5th, 2016

“It's just that I've never seen people celebrate mediocrity the way you do.” Jack Byrnes (Robert DeNiro). Meet the Fockers. Dir. Jay Roach. Universal Studios 2004. For...

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Canadian Housing: Losses on the Ground Are Real; When Will the Banks Start Taking Provisions On Their Credit Exposure...

November 23rd, 2016

“As cooler weather starts driving up heating costs, Calgary distress centres are finding more people who once earned steady incomes are now struggling to pay their bills and seeking relief with...

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Z/ZG: Tick, Tick, Tick…. Time Is Running Out on the Growth of the Premier Agent Advertising Program as the Top of the...

November 2nd, 2016

Zillow management did it again. The company guided down for the forward quarter and “talked down” margin expectations for the out year. This has become a tried and true practice for...

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PAA Research's 2016 Canadian Mortgage Broker Survey: A New Era in the Canadian Housing Market

November 2nd, 2016

We recently conducted a survey of 148 mortgage brokers located across Canada. The key findings from our survey include: Home price weaknes is becoming more broad based The underlying bid for housing remains...

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CSGP: Who’s Going to Give Them Credit for 2018 When Everything’s Slowing?

October 27th, 2016

“….but I do want to remind everybody that CoStar has shown again and again and again that we are able to reduce costs after an investment initiative. We are very good at that and we need credit for that.” Andy...

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AYI: Now the Shot Clock on Growth Is Officially Ticking, Just Ask the Dept. of Energy

October 6th, 2016

Yes, it’s true that AYI does not provide earnings guidance for investors, but the manner in which the company handled its latest earnings release has to be viewed as troubling.  AYI missed by a wide margin on both the top...

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Canadian Housing: The Wind of Change

October 4th, 2016

Will Monday, October 3, 2016 be remembered as the day that the housing market in Ontario peaked?  Maybe.  In a move that appears to have shaken the Canadian housing market to its core (or at least rattled a few branches), Minister of Finance, Bill Morneau announced a...

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HCG.TO: Liquidation Looks Increasingly Likely, Reiterating $0 Price Objective

April 26th, 2017

               “If it keeps on rainin', levee's goin' to break If it keeps on rainin', levee's goin' to break When the levee breaks I'll have no place to...

READ MORE >

HCG.TO: Truthless, Rudderless, and Now Possibly Valueless, Taking Price Objective to $0

April 20th, 2017

“But I can't end the call without a little ditty that someone passed on to me of how people in the 19th century dealt with shorts. And the little ditty goes something like this. He who sells what isn't his'n, must...

READ MORE >

AYI: Management Has a Vision, Just Not a Clear One, Lowering Price Objective to $108

April 4th, 2017

Truth be told, we’ve all seen this happen before: A management team gets praised for consistently beating numbers and its “long term vision” for the company during the early stage of a product/economic cycle. ...

READ MORE >

Current Ideas

HCG.TO

SHORT

$0

AYI

SHORT

$129

BIG

SHORT

$28

DV

SHORT

$15

Z

SHORT

$14.00

NA.TO

SHORT

$22

ING.PA

SHORT

$35

BCO

LONG

$35

WWE

LONG

$25

XOXO

LONG

$20

CSGP

SHORT

$100

ARC

LONG

$12.50

Some Companies We Follow