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Recent Reports

TRUP: New York State Department of Financial Services Clamps Down on Trupanion; Other Key Findings from the 2023...

March 7th, 2024

“We expect to roll off a portion of our other business starting in 2025 subject to certain limitations in order to allow us to utilize capital for other purposes, but we do not control the...

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TRUP: Questionable Pricing Power as More State Regulators Question TRUP; 10-K Filing Highlights

February 29th, 2024

“When we went into 2023, we assumed 12% because that was what we saw in '22. We actually saw a 15% level of inflation, which meant that we were already behind the curve, and we had to catch up again. We started in...

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EXPI: The Minsky Moment Arrives for EXPI as Agents Seek Greener Pastures; Will the Company Ever Growth Agent Count...

February 23rd, 2024

The “Minsky moment” has finally arrived for EXPI, as the company’s agent count declined for the first time in history.  Never forget, for EXPI’s AGENTS it’s always...

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CWH: And Now Comes the Growth Phase, Albeit Slow at the Beginning

February 22nd, 2024

“The truth is, for 2023 the only metric that matters for CWH and the RV industry at large is INVENTORY.  Appropriate inventory channel management preserves economics for everyone in the space and positions the industry for growth once again...

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TRUP: An Industry and Company in Crisis – Crashing Enrollment Growth and Accounting Woes Highlight a Long List of...

February 16th, 2024

“While we saw a surge in pet adoptions during the pandemic period, coupled with stimulus and facilitated discretionary spending, the current economic environment means many consumers are...

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TRUP: New York Says “NO” as the Insurance Rate Spiral Gains Speed; Examining TRUP’s Discontinued Operations...

January 16th, 2024

“It should be noted that for Pet Insurance, this Department generally considers renewal increases more than +30% to be unduly burdensome….It should be noted that generally DFS...

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PAA Research’s Fourth Quarter 2023 Lighting Agent Survey - How long can AYI sustain record gross margins with pricing...

January 8th, 2024

PAA Research surveys lighting agents across the country on a semi-annual basis.  The latest survey was conducted in the first two weeks of December.  17 lighting agents responded to our...

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TREX: Always Consider the Source -Trust this Management Team at Your Own Peril

October 31st, 2023

“I am feeling more positive about the Trex consumer today than I was feeling a year ago” Bryan Fairbanks, President and CEO. Trex Company, Inc. 10/30/23. 3Q23 Earnings Conf. Call Imagine having the unmitigated gall to...

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OSTK: The Winds of Change Are Whipping Across the Peace Coliseum

October 26th, 2023

“Again, we covered a lot and provided more color and guidance than we usually do. In that spirit, I want to remind you that we are here today to discuss our financial results and the progress we made integrating Bed Bath & Beyond. We appreciate...

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TRUP: Negative Estimate Revisions Incoming as Rising Churn, Weaker Demand, Accelerated Run-Off at Pets Best, and...

October 19th, 2023

“And we expect currently that, that will be fully rolled off by the end of next year. We are still enrolling new business for Pets Best as we sit here today. So there is still a lot...

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CWH: Setting the Stage for the Next Cycle - PAA Research's Fall 2023 RV Dealer Survey

October 12th, 2023

In our view there are four issues that are paramount for CWH shares and that will dictate how the stock trades over the short term 1.How much will demand pull forward in 2020-1H22 impact sales of RVs going forward?  The RV...

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AYI: Riding Three Unsustainable Trends; The Threat of Mean Reversion (or Worse) in Gross Margins Looms Large

October 5th, 2023

Heading into 2023, we thought the broader industrial complex would be fertile ground for short ideas, particular those companies that generated meaningful revenue, earnings, and cash flow growth through...

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OSTK: The Good, the Bad, and the Pathway to Massive Shareholder Value Creation

September 22nd, 2023

Following OSTK over the past 4-years has been nothing short of exhausting. Over the past 6-12 months, we have grown increasingly disappointed and frustrated with OSTK’s execution miscues, market share losses, poorly crafted investor...

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EXPI: Management Starts to Panic as Agent Losses to Upstarts Mount; Watch Out for LPT Realty

September 11th, 2023

“I was at eXp for 3 years, made ICON Agent every year, but the opportunity to build a big downline at eXp is long gone. I went to LPT Realty and have grown from 30 agents to almost 300 in one year. Best thing I could of...

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TRUP: Why Was TRUP Forced to Meet with the New York Department of Financial Services? Accounting Issues, and Other...

August 24th, 2023

“And then finally, we are, for the first time in our history, overcapitalized, Sometimes, we have cash and we have to put it into risk-based capital as we continue to grow. That is not the case...

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EXPI: Concerns About Agent Quality and the Erosion of Downline Revenues Should Be Paramount as the Battle for Talent...

August 15th, 2023

Perhaps sell-side analysts and investors still don’t understand the true nature of EXPI’s business. There’s a reason this company has missed EBITDA expectations SEVEN out of the...

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TRUP: Six Key Takeaways from TRUP’s 2Q23 Results as the Insurance Rate Spiral Gains Speed and the Company Approaches...

August 4th, 2023

Even though we know we would be better off not listening to a single word from the TRUP management team, we simply cannot turn our attention away.  It is utterly fascinating to us that a loss...

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CWH: Success Managing Inventory in 2023 Sets the Stage for Growth in 2024 and Beyond

August 3rd, 2023

“And so we feel like the channel is very, very clean right now…. And there's been tremendous discipline. But we're encouraged and optimistic as it relates to really the cleanliness of the inventories and the weeks...

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TRUP: Slamming the Brakes? Latest Florida Rate and Policy Change Request Exposes Many of TRUP’s Massive Problems in...

July 26th, 2023

It’s hard to believe but almost three months have passed since TRUP reported disastrous 1Q23 operating results highlighted by a skyrocketing loss ratio and higher than expected cash burn. ...

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TRUP: A Company in Crisis – Key Observations from the TRUP Shareholder Meeting and Latest Objection Response in CA

June 9th, 2023

We spent the better part of Wednesday listening to a gaggle of Trupanion executives discuss their business and the opportunities ahead.  From our seat, thousands of miles away, the tension in the...

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TRUP: New York State Department of Financial Services Clamps Down on Trupanion; Other Key Findings from the 2023...

March 7th, 2024

“We expect to roll off a portion of our other business starting in 2025 subject to certain limitations in order to allow us to utilize capital for other purposes, but we do not control the...

READ MORE >

TRUP: Questionable Pricing Power as More State Regulators Question TRUP; 10-K Filing Highlights

February 29th, 2024

“When we went into 2023, we assumed 12% because that was what we saw in '22. We actually saw a 15% level of inflation, which meant that we were already behind the curve, and we had to catch up again. We started in...

READ MORE >

EXPI: The Minsky Moment Arrives for EXPI as Agents Seek Greener Pastures; Will the Company Ever Growth Agent Count...

February 23rd, 2024

The “Minsky moment” has finally arrived for EXPI, as the company’s agent count declined for the first time in history.  Never forget, for EXPI’s AGENTS it’s always...

READ MORE >

Current Ideas

EXPI

SELL/SHORT

$4

HUSQ.B

SELL

$50

UFPI

SELL/SHORT

$45

TREX

SHORT

$18

PRDO

SELL/SHORT

$5

STRA

SELL/SHORT

$42

CWH

LONG

$75

OSTK

LONG

$128

CM

SELL/SHORT

$50

RY

SELL/SHORT

$50

AYI

SHORT

$50

RLGY

PAIR TRADE

$10

RDFN

PAIR TRADE

$30

TRUP

SELL/SHORT

$10

CTC

SHORT

$101

ATGE

SHORT

$15

HCG.TO

SHORT

$0

Z

SHORT

$14.00

NA.TO

SHORT

$22

CSGP

SHORT

$100

Some Companies We Follow