Log In

CSGP: Have You Noticed?

October 29th, 2015

It truly is remarkable. Quarter after quarter, CSGP management talks about phenomenal traffic gains for its flagship properties and explosive growth in bookings.  Yet, when the rhetoric melts away and questions are asking about organic or “core” revenue growth the answers are considerably...

READ MORE >

CSGP: A Year From Now, Who Will Remember Brad Bellflower? Cutting Adjusted EBITDA and EPS Estimates

June 8th, 2015

Now that was a press release straight out of the late 1990’s tech company playbook.  Even for a management team that’s renown for its constant self-promotion and “smoke and mirrors” games with growth metrics,...

READ MORE >

CSGP: Why Are Investors Excited About CoStar’s Capital Intensive, Margin Dilutive Market Share Grab in Rentals?

May 1st, 2015

“Yeah. I'm not buying that stock [Apartment finder] at that price [14x EBITDA]. I will buy that stock at half that price.”-          Andy Florance, CEO CoStar Group, Inc. 4/30/15Just an...

READ MORE >

CSGP: Throwing the Marketing Gauntlet Down in Rentals Could Have Negative Implications for Everyone, Including CSGP and...

February 17th, 2015

“So hold on tight, with all your might… Cause MC's [market caps] crumble when we rumble… Cause in this battle, I’m takin no prisoners, I’m slayin MC's right on the...

READ MORE >

Z/CSGP: Can Rentals Save the Zillow Narrative? Don’t Count On It; CSGP Increasingly Looks Like a “Leap of...

October 31st, 2014

“…the long-term opportunity for Rentals, we look at competitors in the rental space kind of pure play what they call ILSs or Internet Listing Sites, Internet Listing Services and we see a couple...

READ MORE >

MCRS: Closing Out Short Idea with a Loss of (-41.3%), Alpha Generation of 5.8%

June 23rd, 2014

“Oracle is focused, focused like a laser on one goal over the next few years: becoming the number one company in Cloud computing's two most profitable segments: software-as-a-service, SaaS; and platform-as-a-service, PaaS.” · Larry...

READ MORE >

MCRS and OPEN: Market Share Losses and Cannibalization of TAM Are Accelerating

May 21st, 2014

Yesterday we had the opportunity to tour the floor at the National Restaurant Association’s 2014 annual conference.  We wanted to pass along some key observations from our time in the exhibit hall.  As you might imagine given our...

READ MORE >

MCRS: Three Reasons Why Investors Should Question the Quality of 3Q14 Upside – XP, Tax Rate, and Record Capitalized...

May 2nd, 2014

For the past 6-9 months we’ve been screaming from the mountain tops (or this molehill depending on your perspective) that much of MCRS’s recent revenue growth has been largely a function of...

READ MORE >

MCRS: The Investor Day Was a “Schnoozer” and That’s a Good Thing for Shorts

February 21st, 2014

Stasis is MCRS’s best asset.  That’s our grand takeaway from the company’s investor day. Otherwise, we can’t help but wonder how bulls on the stock feel about the company’s growth prospects and management team.  Those who were...

READ MORE >

MCRS: As MCRS Continues to Lose Share, a Sequence of Short Term Gains Could Create Longer Term Pain

September 27th, 2013

The purpose of this report is to address several critical questions surrounding MCRS and the company’s future growth prospects. In general, we would argue that most of these queries aren’t part of the general...

READ MORE >

MCRS: After a Year of Zero Growth, Are Shareholders Any Better Off Than They Were 12-Months Ago? Analyzing the Marriott...

August 22nd, 2013

“Hope is a dangerous thing.  Hope can drive a man insane.”Morgan Freeman (Red), Shawshank RedemptionWe are not alone in this.  There’s no shortage of short sellers who lament the action in...

READ MORE >

OPEN: YELP’s Acquisition of SeatMe Could Herald the Start of a New Era in the North American ERB Space

July 19th, 2013

And so it begins….Two and a half years ago we introduced OPEN as a short idea predicated on four principal tenets: At its core, OPEN provides a “solution without a problem”.  OPEN’s ERB technology and...

READ MORE >

MCRS and OPEN: Thoughts From the NRA Show 2013 – Tablet POS Systems Continue to Come of Age as Competitive Headwinds...

May 21st, 2013

Yesterday we had the opportunity to tour the floor at the National Restaurant Association’s 2013 annual conference.  We wanted to pass along some key observations from our time in the exhibit...

READ MORE >

MCRS: As the Company Runs out of “Arrows in the Quiver”, Bulls Are Left to Wonder What Catalysts Remain as Secular...

April 25th, 2013

When we initially introduced MCRS as a short idea roughly 8-months ago, here were the principal tenets of our thesis: The elimination of the hardware “tether” could result in rapid share gains...

READ MORE >

MCRS: Not Much to See Here…. For Now

January 25th, 2013

MCRS reported a quarter that was as uneventful as it was uninspiring. Ultimately there were operating metrics that improved somewhat and those that could be construed as confirmation of our short thesis.  Below we discuss the key positives and negatives from the quarter.

READ MORE >

Proprietary Restaurant Checks Suggest Challenges Could Mount for OPEN and MCRS in 2013; Other Key Observations

January 22nd, 2013

Over the past month, PAA Research conducted a survey of approximately 80-85 restaurant operators a significant percentage of which are clients of OPEN and MCRS. The general purpose of the survey was to gain...

READ MORE >

MCRS: Thoughts from the National Retail Federation “Big Show”

January 15th, 2013

Yesterday we had the opportunity to tour the floor at the National Retail Federation’s “Big Show 2013”.  We wanted to pass along some key observations from our time in the exhibit hall.  As you might imagine given our outstanding short call on...

READ MORE >

MCRS: How MCRS Really Makes Money and Why It Should Alarm Investors in the New Age of mPOS and iOS POS Solutions

December 12th, 2012

It’s been nearly four months since we first introduced MCRS as a short idea.  Since that time the stock has declined (-13%) compared to a 1% gain for the S&P 500 over the same period.  As so often is...

READ MORE >

MCRS: The Burden of Proof Has Shifted

October 24th, 2012

With one simple statement, the management of Urban Outfitters changed the entire perception surrounding the sustainability of incumbent providers of PC based POS software solutions to restaurants and retailers.  On September 27th at the Urban Outfitters investor day, the...

READ MORE >

MCRS: “Square”ly in the Scope of the Mobile Payments and iOS Revolutions, Time to Get Short

August 23rd, 2012

“I just charge additional license fees for these iPad implementations, so it actually drives business”Peter Rodgers, EVP Investor Relations and Business Development MICROS Systems, Inc.That’s it, nothing to see here....

READ MORE >

OPEN: Another OPEX Driven Beat Aside, the Signposts of Growth Maturation and Competitive Pressures Continue to Pile Up

August 3rd, 2012

With OPEN shares down 24% in the past month and now trading at what some might think is an attractive 18.7x consensus EPS for 2013 we shouldn’t be completely surprised by the strength in the stock...

READ MORE >

OPEN: Evaluating OPEN’s Competitive Challenges in Europe – Is Market Leadership in Europe “Fait Accompli”?

March 17th, 2011

Approximately 2-weeks ago, we introduced OPEN as a short idea.  You can read our original 40-page report by clicking here.  The principal elements of our short thesis are as follows: 1. OPEN’s...

READ MORE >

CSGP: Noisy Quarter Shouldn't Overshadow Acceleration in Core Business, Traction for Showcase.com

April 20th, 2010

Approximately two months ago we introduced a pair trade idea to go long CSGP against a short position in LOOP.  You can read our original report here.  Thus far the trade has not delivered the type of return we...

READ MORE >

When the Castle Is Under Siege It Helps To Have a Wide Moat: Long CSGP/Short LOOP

March 12th, 2010

This report was originally published on 2/11/10.A few years ago, Warren Buffet stated to Fortune magazine:“The key to investing is not assessing how much an industry is going to affect society, or how much it will grow, but rather...

READ MORE >

Current Ideas

CTC

SHORT

$101

ATGE

SHORT

$15

AYI

SHORT

$108

HCG.TO

SHORT

$0

RON.TO

SHORT

$9

BIG

SHORT

$28

ESI

SHORT

$0

BGG

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

TTC

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

Z

SHORT

$14.00

NA.TO

SHORT

$22

ING.PA

SHORT

$35

ZU

SHORT

$15

TRLA

SHORT

$20

MCRS

SHORT

$31

APOL

SHORT

$35

OPEN

SHORT

$30

BCO

LONG

$35

WWE

LONG

$25

KNL

PAIR - LONG KNL/SHORT MLHR

25%

XOXO

LONG

$20

CSGP

SHORT

$100

GCA

LONG

$8

IPSU

LONG

$20

MLHR

SHORT

$22

ARC

LONG

$12.50

LOOP

PAIR - LONG CSGP/SHORT LOOP

40%

THQI

LONG

$35

WPO

SHORT

$275

COCO

SHORT

$0

HNI

SIG

RGR