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BIG: A Troubling Fact Pattern Emerges as Thesis Creep Sets in For Longs

March 9th, 2018

Heading into BIG’s 4Q17 earnings release, we thought the company would be able to generate positive comps, albeit lower than consensus, but would struggle to generate the kind of operating leverage on meager SSS growth it has achieved over...

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BIG: Will Unrelenting Competitive Pressures and Rising Cost Inflation Finally Lead to Massive EPS Degradation?

February 28th, 2018

Presumably BIG will report 4Q17 earnings results on Friday morning.  At this stage, the company has not yet announced an official reporting date which is somewhat unusual.  Historically, BIG has...

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BIG: A Low Quality Earnings Beat Is the Least Worrisome of the Red Flags

December 4th, 2017

Expanded square footage, broader product offerings and SKU sets (gray!), more liberal down payment options through Progressive, and the Big Lots private label credit card couldn’t prevent BIG from witnessing massive deceleration in growth...

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CTC: We’ve Seen This Story Before and It Doesn’t End Well, Time to Get Short

October 9th, 2017

“We’re focused on growth in e-commerce….I don’t think enough companies worry about obsolescence. We think about it all the time.” Kevan Gorrie, CEO Pure Industrial REIT 2/9/17 (Canada...

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BIG: After Months of Frustration We Now Can See the Beginning of the End

August 25th, 2017

“I guess the best thing that I can say is from a strategic standpoint, Seasonal and Furniture and Soft Home seem to be categories that not everybody is focused on.” Timothy A. Johnson, Big Lots CFO, 8/25/17 2Q17 Earnings Conf....

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BIG: The Days of Leveraging Without Comps Are Over and the Implications Should Concern BIG Investors

March 3rd, 2017

“There is always a heavy demand for fresh mediocrity. In every generation the least cultivated taste has the largest appetite.” Paul Gauguin Following another 90-minute conference call in which...

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BIG: Celebrating Mediocrity, While Investors Are Left to Ponder How Long Financial Engineering Can Prop Up EPS,...

December 5th, 2016

“It's just that I've never seen people celebrate mediocrity the way you do.” Jack Byrnes (Robert DeNiro). Meet the Fockers. Dir. Jay Roach. Universal Studios 2004. For...

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BIG: Financial Engineering Has Run Its Course and “Jennifer” Is Nowhere to Be Found; Time to Get Short

August 25th, 2016

“Financial engineering is the use of mathematical techniques to solve financial problems. Financial engineering uses tools and knowledge from the fields of computer science, statistics, economics and applied...

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RON.TO: The Irrational Bid Is Alive and Well in Canada, Closing Out Short Idea with a (-49%) Loss Following Acquisition...

February 3rd, 2016

This isn’t the first time, nor will it be the last (unfortunately) that the stock of a company that we have recommended going short has been acquired. It happened with OPEN, MCRS, and now RON. ...

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Key Observations from Our Proprietary Survey of Independent Jewelery Retailers

November 22nd, 2010

We recently conducted a survey of approximately 20 independent specialty jeweler retailers. The purpose of our survey was to: Gain greater insight on sales trends in the first few weeks of the holiday season Determine how independent...

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Channel Checks With Independent Jewelers Indicate Trends Might Not Be As Bad as the Zales November Comp Would Have You...

March 11th, 2010

This report was originally published on 12/16/09.Shares of SIG (29.54 ↓0.94%) have pulled back in the past 10-days following ZLC (3.03↓6.19%)’s 10-Q filing, in which Zale’s reported...

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Signet Jewelers (SIG) Remains the Best Investment Vehicle in the Specialty Jewelery Space

March 10th, 2010

This report was originally published 9/9/09.SIG reported 2Q10 results this morning.  You can find the full press release here.  Overall, the company handily beat consensus expectations and the stock has reacted...

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Are Polished Diamond Prices About to Increase?

March 10th, 2010

This report was originally published 8/25/09.In a recent post on NILE (54.88 ↑1.95%), we discussed the primary fundamental short thesis on the stock, which included among other things the company’s “operating margin conundrum”.  In short, it is our view that...

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A Closer Look at Blue Nile’s Promotion Strategy and the Company’s Operating Margin Conundrum – The Fundamental...

March 10th, 2010

This report was originally published on 8/12/09.Approximately 6-weeks ago we introduced a pair trade recommendation Long Signet Jewelers/Short Blue Nile.  Thus far it has not yielded positive...

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A Pair Trade with Some Sparkle – Long Signet Jewelers/Short Blue Nile

March 8th, 2010

This report was originally published on 6/25/09.Over the past few months there have been some nascent signs of stabilization in consumer spending. For the most part we have avoided the entire consumer sector during the recovery in the market over...

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XOXO

LONG

$37

WWE

LONG

$65

AYI

SHORT

$98

RY

SELL/SHORT

$70

CM

SELL/SHORT

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CTC

SHORT

$101

ATGE

SHORT

$15

HCG.TO

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$0

RON.TO

SHORT

$9

BIG

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$28

ESI

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$0

BGG

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

TTC

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

Z

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NA.TO

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ING.PA

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ZU

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TRLA

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MCRS

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APOL

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$35

OPEN

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BCO

LONG

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KNL

PAIR - LONG KNL/SHORT MLHR

25%

CSGP

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$100

GCA

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IPSU

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$20

MLHR

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ARC

LONG

$12.50

LOOP

PAIR - LONG CSGP/SHORT LOOP

40%

THQI

LONG

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WPO

SHORT

$275

COCO

SHORT

$0

HNI

SIG

RGR