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ESI: Closing Out ESI Short Idea with a 100% Gain; Let the Record Show that the Blame for ESI’s Demise Lies with...

September 23rd, 2016

“How did you go bankrupt? Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly” Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises ITT Educational Services ceased to exist as of September 16th.  The...

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BIG: Financial Engineering Has Run Its Course and “Jennifer” Is Nowhere to Be Found; Time to Get Short

August 25th, 2016

“Financial engineering is the use of mathematical techniques to solve financial problems. Financial engineering uses tools and knowledge from the fields of computer science, statistics, economics and applied...

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DV: Meet the New Boss; Same as the Old Boss? Either Way the Central Elements of Our Short Thesis Continue to Come to...

August 19th, 2016

Over the years, there are few things that we have looked forward to less than listening to DV earnings conference calls.  For the most part, the conference calls and presentations during the...

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Z/ZG: Leads Don’t Grow to the Sky and Other Troublesome Comments from Management

August 5th, 2016

Believe it or not, there was a time even after we adopted a bearish stance on Zillow’s stock that we were allowed to ask questions on the company’s earnings conference calls.  Unfortunately we asked too many difficult...

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HCG.TO: Can You See It Now? HCG Is a Shrinking Lender with Declining Margins, Enormous Credit Risk, and Potential...

July 28th, 2016

To anyone (ourselves included) that has followed the publicly available financial data on Home Trust from OSFI over the past few months, it is not a surprise that the company once again missed...

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HCG.TO: In the Biggest Housing Bull Market in the History of Canada, HCG Still Can’t Grow Their Loan Book –...

July 20th, 2016

HCG is desperate. How do we know this? Well certainly in this case actions speak louder than words.  Consider the following steps the company has taken over the past 6-12 months to shore up...

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Z/ZG: Myth vs. Reality

July 18th, 2016

Over the past month, we surveyd approximately 470 real estate agents.  The vast majority of the agents we surveyed have at least 10-years experience, generate at least 15 transaction sides annually, and work for one of the REAL Trends 500 brokerage firms.  Additionally, a significant...

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NA.TO: Negative Variance Seems Inevitable, As Does another Capital Raise

June 2nd, 2016

The continued sharp decline in oil prices over the last couple of years has had a detrimental effect on the Alberta economy, resulting in several high-value provisions and writeoffs in our commercial portfolio, predominantly within the energy...

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Canadian Housing: A Tale of Four Markets, Foreign Buyers, and Fraud

May 24th, 2016

We recently conducted a survey of approximately 230 real estate agents in Canada.  The attached presentation summarizes our key findings from the survey.

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Z/ZG: What Is Adjusted EBITDA? Zillow Continues to Hide Elevated Cash Technology Spending in Plain Sight

May 13th, 2016

“EBITDA isn’t a controlled substance or a law enforcement agency. It’s the standard abbreviation for the financial-analysis term “Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and...

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HCG.TO: Every Arrow In the Quiver Has Been Fired and Earnings are Still Declining Leaving Bulls With a Chilling...

May 5th, 2016

In the strongest housing market in the history of Ontario while taking provisions for credit losses as close to zero as possible, HCG still missed consensus 1Q16 earnings expectations....

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Z/ZG: Where’s the Operating Leverage? And Other Questions That Need to Be Asked

May 4th, 2016

The structural flaws with Zillow’s operating model are all hiding in plain sight.  It’s May 2016, nearly 5-years after Zillow went public and the company is no closer to achieving its theoretical adjusted EBITDA margin...

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AYI: The Narrative Is About to Change, Time to Get Short

April 26th, 2016

As a firm, we pride ourselves on the rigors of our idea generation process. Rigorous fundamental analysis, in-depth primary research, accounting scrutiny etc. are all hallmarks of our investment process.  However, despite the intensity of our work on any...

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ESI: As EBITDA Generation Dwindles, The Cash Wind-down Begins in Earnest

April 21st, 2016

ESI shares traded higher after hours based on the company's long awaited 4Q15 operating results.  It appears some investors are emboldened by the earnings upside in 4Q15 despite continued weakness in student...

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Current Ideas

EXPI

SELL/SHORT

$4

HUSQ.B

SELL

$50

UFPI

SELL/SHORT

$45

TREX

SHORT

$18

PRDO

SELL/SHORT

$5

STRA

SELL/SHORT

$42

CWH

LONG

$75

OSTK

LONG

$128

CM

SELL/SHORT

$50

RY

SELL/SHORT

$50

ARC

LONG

$5.50

AYI

SHORT

$50

BIG

SHORT

$28

WWE

LONG

$65

XOXO

LONG

$37

RLGY

PAIR TRADE

$10

RDFN

PAIR TRADE

$30

BCO

LONG

$35

ING.PA

SHORT

$35

TRUP

SELL/SHORT

$10

CTC

SHORT

$101

ATGE

SHORT

$15

HCG.TO

SHORT

$0

RON.TO

SHORT

$9

ESI

SHORT

$0

BGG

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

TTC

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

Z

SHORT

$14.00

NA.TO

SHORT

$22

ZU

SHORT

$15

TRLA

SHORT

$20

MCRS

SHORT

$31

APOL

SHORT

$35

OPEN

SHORT

$30

KNL

PAIR - LONG KNL/SHORT MLHR

25%

CSGP

SHORT

$100

GCA

LONG

$8

IPSU

LONG

$20

MLHR

SHORT

$22

LOOP

PAIR - LONG CSGP/SHORT LOOP

40%

THQI

LONG

$35

WPO

SHORT

$275

COCO

SHORT

$0

HNI

SIG

RGR