Recent Reports

Buyback Outliers: March 2025 Update

March 20th, 2025

In our first report in which we introduced the Buyback Outliers List, we argued that those companies with consistent and sizeable buyback programs typically performed better during market downturns even though the relative outperformance of serial stock repurchasers compared to the...

FRPT: Estimates Remain Jarringly High in the Context of Increasingly Clear Signs of Revenue Deceleration (Even at...

February 24th, 2025

There were signs…. Starting back in early January, FRPT management elected not to include a new slide deck as part of its presentation at the ICR Conference. At the time, management...

TRUP: The Jaws Are Closing Quickly in the “Trupanion Trap”

February 20th, 2025

If you’re still not convinced that price action determines the narrative around any given stock, consider the following changes in how investors think about TRUP: • Ten weeks ago: Trupanion is a market leader poised to profitably...

KNSL: Slowing Growth Brings Investors Closer to Seeing KNSL For What the Company Really Is

February 14th, 2025

“Also of note, the appreciation of Kinsale's stock price over the course of 2024 exceeded that of the S&P 500 Index for the eighth time in the last 9 years since our IPO back in...

PAA Research: The January 2025 PAA Research Watch List Has Been Published

January 28th, 2025

You can find it on the WATCH LIST tab on our website or by clicking the link below.

PAA Research’s “Five and Dime” List: Up 13% Over the Past 3-Months, 123% Inception to Date; Latest Changes to the...

January 20th, 2025

Approximately two years ago, we introduced our first “Five and Dime” List as part of our regularly published “Watch List”. In January 2023, we were just a few months...

TRUP: A Broken Product - State Level Data Puts TRUP’s “Insurance Rate Spiral” in Full Relief as Base Rates Reach...

January 9th, 2025

As far as our work on TRUP is concerned, we were delighted to turn the page on 2024. If you told us that TRUP would witness a massive deceleration in enrollment growth, persistently high churn, and...

Introducing the PAA Research Buyback Outliers List

December 19th, 2024

“Analysts tend to be cheer-leaders for corporate re-purchase programs. In my view, these programs only make sense under one condition – the company is buying back shares that are significantly under-valued. Most management teams have demonstrated the total...

TRUP: The Insurance Rate Spiral Is Firmly Entrenched in CA, FL, and NY (and Elsewhere) as the Aflac “Overhang”...

November 15th, 2024

“The Aflac Pet Insurance Powered by Trupanion program plans are administered as a voluntary benefit to employees and generally available for selection once per year. Given we first introduced...

EXPI: Dead Company Walking? EXPI Desperately Raises Agent Comp AGAIN as Multi-Level Marketing Economics Start to Unravel

November 8th, 2024

“When someone shows you who they are, believe them the first time” - Maya Angelou Imagine a company that SLASHED prices on its core product four times in a period of less...

TRUP: As the Growth Story Blows Up Before Our Eyes the Stage Is Set for a Return to Losses and Cash Burn

October 31st, 2024

Well, we can’t help ourselves, we’re going to ask: What about the company’s 3Q24 earnings warranted a 44.0% gain in TRUP shares since the company reported 2Q24 results? Yes, we hear you. You...

TREX: As Operating Efficiency Declines the “Add-Backs” and Management Nonsense Gets More Egregious

October 29th, 2024

“We haven't decided how we'll report that next year as of yet. If it's more helpful to the market, we'll show it that way..” - Bryan Fairbanks, CEO Trex Company, Inc.. 10/24/24. 3Q24...

BYON: Only Four Things Matter Now and It Starts With Execution

October 25th, 2024

“Don't shut it off. I'm warning you.” Peter Venkman. Ghostbusters. Reitman, Ivan. Performances by Bill Murray. Columbia-Delphi Pictures. 1984 Our journey in BYON over the past 4-5 years has been for brief periods of time...

KNSL: An Insurer of Last Resort Riding an E&S Pricing Wave; Time to Get Short with a Price Objective of $230

October 24th, 2024

“Earthquake insurance is something I'm keen to take a whack at…collect premiums for a gazillion years, and if the big one ever does hit, declare bankruptcy and retire” Caton-Jones,...

AYI: PAA Research's September 2024 Lighting Agent Survey

September 30th, 2024

The report below outlines feedback from our latest survey of lighting agents across the country.

TRUP: The “Trupanion Trap” Remains Alive and Well as the Company Guides Down Enrollment Growth AGAIN

September 19th, 2024

After listening to TRUP’s management team drone on for 3-4 hours yesterday afternoon, one singular word keeps ringing through our heads: ENTITLEMENT. Not to worry, this note is not about to devolve into...

FRPT: A More Detailed Look at FRPT Raises More Questions Than Answers

August 13th, 2024

This is a lengthy follow-up report to our initial note on Freshpet, Inc.

TRUP: With Enrollment Growth Collapsing, Management Is Quickly Approaching the Point of No Return for Its Aging Book of...

August 9th, 2024

Let’s start with an honest question: Why are TRUP shares up 50% in the past 3-months?It’s a perplexing dynamic. Presumably, the company’s 2Q24 results and outlook would have...

TREX: Have We Reached the “Enough Is Enough” Phase Yet? Earnings Could Fall Off a Cliff In the Next 18-24 Months

August 7th, 2024

Let’s put ourselves in the shoes of a TREX investor this morning. You walked into the office yesterday thinking that TREX was one of the best secular growth stories in the industrial complex...

FRPT: Questionable Economics While Entering the Wrong Side of the “S-Curve”; Time to Get Short with a Price...

August 2nd, 2024

“Freshpet strengthens the bond between people and our pets so that we both live longer, healthier and happier lives while being kind to the planet” Freshpet Investor Presentation...

Buyback Outliers: March 2025 Update

March 20th, 2025

FRPT: Estimates Remain Jarringly High in the Context of Increasingly Clear Signs of Revenue Deceleration (Even at...

February 24th, 2025

There were signs…. Starting back in early January, FRPT management elected not to include a new slide deck as part of its presentation at the ICR Conference. At the time, management...

TRUP: The Jaws Are Closing Quickly in the “Trupanion Trap”

February 20th, 2025

Current Ideas

KNSL

SELL/SHORT

$230

BYON

LONG

$70

EXPI

SELL/SHORT

HUSQ.B

SELL

$50

UFPI

SELL/SHORT

$45

TREX

SHORT

$18

PRDO

SELL/SHORT

STRA

SELL/SHORT

$42

CWH

LONG

$75

SELL/SHORT

$50

SELL/SHORT

$50

AYI

SHORT

$50

RLGY

PAIR TRADE

$10

RDFN

PAIR TRADE

$30

TRUP

SELL/SHORT

$10

CTC

SHORT

$101

ATGE

SHORT

$15

HCG.TO

SHORT

$14.00

NA.TO

SHORT

$22

CSGP

SHORT

$100

Log In

We are unique among
investment research firms

The Research Product

Alpha Generation of Our
Investment Ideas Is the True
Measure of our
Research Product

PAA RESEARCH
IN THE MEDIA

Recent Reports

Buyback Outliers: March 2025 Update

FRPT: Estimates Remain Jarringly High in the Context of Increasingly Clear Signs of Revenue Deceleration (Even at...

TRUP: The Jaws Are Closing Quickly in the “Trupanion Trap”

KNSL: Slowing Growth Brings Investors Closer to Seeing KNSL For What the Company Really Is

PAA Research: The January 2025 PAA Research Watch List Has Been Published

PAA Research’s “Five and Dime” List: Up 13% Over the Past 3-Months, 123% Inception to Date; Latest Changes to the...

TRUP: A Broken Product - State Level Data Puts TRUP’s “Insurance Rate Spiral” in Full Relief as Base Rates Reach...

Introducing the PAA Research Buyback Outliers List

TRUP: The Insurance Rate Spiral Is Firmly Entrenched in CA, FL, and NY (and Elsewhere) as the Aflac “Overhang”...

EXPI: Dead Company Walking? EXPI Desperately Raises Agent Comp AGAIN as Multi-Level Marketing Economics Start to Unravel

TRUP: As the Growth Story Blows Up Before Our Eyes the Stage Is Set for a Return to Losses and Cash Burn

TREX: As Operating Efficiency Declines the “Add-Backs” and Management Nonsense Gets More Egregious

BYON: Only Four Things Matter Now and It Starts With Execution

KNSL: An Insurer of Last Resort Riding an E&S Pricing Wave; Time to Get Short with a Price Objective of $230

AYI: PAA Research's September 2024 Lighting Agent Survey

TRUP: The “Trupanion Trap” Remains Alive and Well as the Company Guides Down Enrollment Growth AGAIN

FRPT: A More Detailed Look at FRPT Raises More Questions Than Answers

TRUP: With Enrollment Growth Collapsing, Management Is Quickly Approaching the Point of No Return for Its Aging Book of...

TREX: Have We Reached the “Enough Is Enough” Phase Yet? Earnings Could Fall Off a Cliff In the Next 18-24 Months

FRPT: Questionable Economics While Entering the Wrong Side of the “S-Curve”; Time to Get Short with a Price...

Buyback Outliers: March 2025 Update

FRPT: Estimates Remain Jarringly High in the Context of Increasingly Clear Signs of Revenue Deceleration (Even at...

TRUP: The Jaws Are Closing Quickly in the “Trupanion Trap”

Current Ideas

Some Companies We Follow

Log In

We are unique among investment research firms

The Research Product

Alpha Generation of Our Investment Ideas Is the True Measure of our Research Product

PAA RESEARCH IN THE MEDIA

Recent Reports

Buyback Outliers: March 2025 Update

FRPT: Estimates Remain Jarringly High in the Context of Increasingly Clear Signs of Revenue Deceleration (Even at...

Buyback Outliers: March 2025 Update

FRPT: Estimates Remain Jarringly High in the Context of Increasingly Clear Signs of Revenue Deceleration (Even at...

TRUP: The Jaws Are Closing Quickly in the “Trupanion Trap”

Current Ideas

Some Companies We Follow

We are unique among
investment research firms

Alpha Generation of Our
Investment Ideas Is the True
Measure of our
Research Product

PAA RESEARCH
IN THE MEDIA