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BGG/TTC: Housing, Operating Efficiency, and FCF Improvements Indicate BGG Might Finally Flex Its Earnings Muscles

October 18th, 2012

The Spring/Summer 2012 selling season will not be remembered fondly by participants in the outdoor power equipment marketplace.  Severe drought through much of the US and ongoing economic in weakness led...

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BGG/TTC: Drought Aside, Earnings Visibility and FCF Prospects Are Improving Rapidly for BGG

August 9th, 2012

BGG shares traded off modestly today following 4Q12 results and initial FY13 guidance that were both below consensus expectations.  Two factors weighed on the company’s 2Q12 and significantly dampened the company’s FY13...

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My Interview in Barron's

July 1st, 2012

In case you missed it, I recently had the opportunity to speak with Leslie Norton of Barron's about PAA Research, our approach to idea generation, and some of our latest thoughts on for-profit education, payment processing and OPEN, Z, BGG, and TTC.  You can find the full interview HERE.

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BGG/TTC: BGG, This Needed to Happen, Now the Stock Becomes Even More Compelling

January 27th, 2012

Admittedly, we did not expect something like this.  Suffice it to say BGG’s 2Q12 earnings results and conference call included a number of unexpected outcomes both operationally and strategically.  Obviously the big news of the day was...

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BGG/TTC: BGG 2Q12 Preview, Highlights from Proprietary Outdoor Power Equipment Dealer Survey, Still Favor Long...

January 25th, 2012

If there has been any sector that has served as the backbone of the recent rally in the market it has been the homebuilders.  Most of the largest publicly traded homebuilders have witnessed stock...

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BGG/TTC: BGG, “Shooting Star” Price Action Aside, Stock Appears Poised for Gains

October 20th, 2011

As we anticipated, BGG reported 1Q12 results that were well above consensus expectations.  The magnitude of revenue upside was larger than we expected, but the company’s loss per share was roughly inline with our forecast. ...

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TTC: Now Comes the Hard Part, Still Favor Long BGG/Short TTC

August 18th, 2011

For the first time in a long time, TTC reported quarterly results that fell short of expectations.  While some investment firms and analysts are willing to look past the company’s “product rework” expense in the quarter as a “one-time” item, we...

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BGG/TTC: BGG, What the Market Is (Or Isn’t) Telling Us About Value

August 11th, 2011

Admittedly, BGG’s 4Q11 results and initial FY12 EPS guidance were well below our expectations. Our channel checks indicated that sell through of outdoor power equipment weakened from 1Q11 to 2Q11 and that trends in June and July were modestly worse...

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BGG/TTC: BGG 4Q11 Preview, Highlights from Proprietary Outdoor Power Equipment Dealer Survey, Still Favor Long...

August 10th, 2011

We have been recommending a pair trade: long BGG/short TTC for approximately 9-12 months.  Thus far the trade has not been a winner, generating a modest (-3.0%) loss compared to a relatively healthy...

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BGG: 3Q11 Yields a Solid Beat, Mgmt. Sets a Low Bar for the Rest of the Fiscal Year

April 28th, 2011

BGG shares rallied modestly today, despite the significant outperformance posted by the company on both the top and bottomline for 3Q11. We attribute the tepid stock price response to the relatively muted outlook for 4Q11 provided by...

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BGG/TTC: Survey Results from Outdoor Power Equipment Dealers Adds Credence to Our Long BGG/Short TTC Pair Trade

April 27th, 2011

We have been recommending a pair trade: long BGG/short TTC for approximately 6-9 months.  Thus far the trade has not been a winner, generating a modest gain 1.5% compared to a robust 26.5% increase for the...

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TTC: Near Term Earnings Upside Appears Priced In, Still Favor Long BGG/Short TTC

February 17th, 2011

TTC reported 1Q11 results today that were well above consensus expectations.  You can read the full release here.  Despite the large upside delivered for 1Q11, the upward revision to FY11 guidance, and communication of a FY14 operating...

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BGG: 2Q11 Earnings Not As Impressive As Headline Results Suggest, Waiting for Signs of Spring

January 28th, 2011

BGG reported 2Q11 results that we would characterize as far less impressive as the headline numbers would suggest.  In general, it appears that relatively strong demand in Australia and Asia combined with slightly earlier...

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BGG: Survey Results from Outdoor Power Equipment Dealers and 2Q11 Preview

January 26th, 2011

We have been recommending a pair trade: long BGG/short TTC for approximately three months.  Thus far the trade has not been a winner, generating a modest loss (-0.3%) compared to a whopping 21.3% gain for the S&P 500.  As a reminder, the...

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BGG: Channel Sell Through Slowed Over Past 3-Months, but Earnings Upside for the Quarter Still Seems Likely

October 19th, 2010

We have been recommending a pair trade: long BGG/short TTC for approximately three months.  Thus far the trade has not been a winner, generating a (-4.7%) return compared to a 9.4% gain for the S&P 500.  As...

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TTC: Large 3Q10 Beat As Expected, Guides Inline, Headwinds Should Start to Emerge in FY11, Still Favor Long BGG/Short...

August 19th, 2010

TTC reported strong 3Q10 result this morning,  you can read the full release here.  On the heels of BGG's blow-out numbers, it should come as no surprise that TTC delivered significant upside to...

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BGG: Replacement Driven Demand, Monster FCF Highlight Strong 4Q10, Still Favor Long BGG, Short TTC

August 12th, 2010

We recently introduced a pair trade idea: long BGG/short TTC.  Thus far the trade has returned 2.1% compared to a 2.3% gain for the S&P 500.  We still think the pair trade has the potential to generate a total...

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Closing out BGG and TTC Shorts with 21.2% and 7.3% Gains, Going Long BGG Against Short Position in TTC

July 19th, 2010

Approximately three months ago we introduced two short ideas in the outdoor power equipment space: BGG and TTC.  Since that time shares of BGG have sold off 21.2%, while those of TTC have declined 7.3% compared to a...

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TTC: 2Q10 Upside More than Overshadowed by Threat of Slowdown in the US, Golf and European Headwinds

May 21st, 2010

TTC reported 2Q10 results earlier today.  You can read the full release here.  The company's earnings results were inline with TTC's positive pre-announcement on 5/13.Key Observations from TTC's 2Q10 ResultsHere are...

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Time to Grab the "Bull" by the Horns, Getting Short TTC and BGG

April 19th, 2010

The outdoor power equipment sector is an industry whose revenue growth trends have historically been driven by three primary factors: home sales, general consumer confidence, and weather.  It should come as no surprise given these factors that unit sales...

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Current Ideas

KNSL

SELL/SHORT

$230

FRPT

SELL/SHORT

$55

BYON

LONG

$70

EXPI

SELL/SHORT

$4

HUSQ.B

SELL

$50

UFPI

SELL/SHORT

$45

TREX

SHORT

$18

PRDO

SELL/SHORT

$5

STRA

SELL/SHORT

$42

CWH

LONG

$75

CM

SELL/SHORT

$50

RY

SELL/SHORT

$50

ARC

LONG

$5.50

AYI

SHORT

$50

BIG

SHORT

$28

WWE

LONG

$65

XOXO

LONG

$37

RLGY

PAIR TRADE

$10

RDFN

PAIR TRADE

$30

BCO

LONG

$35

ING.PA

SHORT

$35

TRUP

SELL/SHORT

$10

CTC

SHORT

$101

ATGE

SHORT

$15

HCG.TO

SHORT

$0

RON.TO

SHORT

$9

ESI

SHORT

$0

BGG

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

TTC

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

Z

SHORT

$14.00

NA.TO

SHORT

$22

ZU

SHORT

$15

TRLA

SHORT

$20

MCRS

SHORT

$31

APOL

SHORT

$35

OPEN

SHORT

$30

KNL

PAIR - LONG KNL/SHORT MLHR

25%

CSGP

SHORT

$100

GCA

LONG

$8

IPSU

LONG

$20

MLHR

SHORT

$22

LOOP

PAIR - LONG CSGP/SHORT LOOP

40%

THQI

LONG

$35

WPO

SHORT

$275

COCO

SHORT

$0

HNI

SIG

RGR