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TRUP: The Insurance Rate Spiral Is Firmly Entrenched in CA, FL, and NY (and Elsewhere) as the Aflac “Overhang”...

November 15th, 2024

“The Aflac Pet Insurance Powered by Trupanion program plans are administered as a voluntary benefit to employees and generally available for selection once per year. Given we first introduced...

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EXPI: Dead Company Walking? EXPI Desperately Raises Agent Comp AGAIN as Multi-Level Marketing Economics Start to Unravel

November 8th, 2024

“When someone shows you who they are, believe them the first time” - Maya Angelou   Imagine a company that SLASHED prices on its core product four times in a period of less...

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TRUP: As the Growth Story Blows Up Before Our Eyes the Stage Is Set for a Return to Losses and Cash Burn

October 31st, 2024

Well, we can’t help ourselves, we’re going to ask: What about the company’s 3Q24 earnings warranted a 44.0% gain in TRUP shares since the company reported 2Q24 results?  Yes, we hear you. You...

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TREX: As Operating Efficiency Declines the “Add-Backs” and Management Nonsense Gets More Egregious

October 29th, 2024

“We haven't decided how we'll report that next year as of yet. If it's more helpful to the market, we'll show it that way..” - Bryan Fairbanks, CEO Trex Company, Inc.. 10/24/24. 3Q24...

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BYON: Only Four Things Matter Now and It Starts With Execution

October 25th, 2024

“Don't shut it off. I'm warning you.”  Peter Venkman. Ghostbusters. Reitman, Ivan. Performances by Bill Murray. Columbia-Delphi Pictures. 1984 Our journey in BYON over the past 4-5 years has been for brief periods of time...

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KNSL: An Insurer of Last Resort Riding an E&S Pricing Wave; Time to Get Short with a Price Objective of $230

October 24th, 2024

“Earthquake insurance is something I'm keen to take a whack at…collect premiums for a gazillion years, and if the big one ever does hit, declare bankruptcy and retire” Caton-Jones,...

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AYI: PAA Research's September 2024 Lighting Agent Survey

September 30th, 2024

The report below outlines feedback from our latest survey of lighting agents across the country.

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TRUP: The “Trupanion Trap” Remains Alive and Well as the Company Guides Down Enrollment Growth AGAIN

September 19th, 2024

After listening to TRUP’s management team drone on for 3-4 hours yesterday afternoon, one singular word keeps ringing through our heads: ENTITLEMENT.  Not to worry, this note is not about to devolve into...

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FRPT: A More Detailed Look at FRPT Raises More Questions Than Answers

August 13th, 2024

This is a lengthy follow-up report to our initial note on Freshpet, Inc.

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TRUP: With Enrollment Growth Collapsing, Management Is Quickly Approaching the Point of No Return for Its Aging Book of...

August 9th, 2024

Let’s start with an honest question: Why are TRUP shares up 50% in the past 3-months?It’s a perplexing dynamic. Presumably, the company’s 2Q24 results and outlook would have...

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TREX: Have We Reached the “Enough Is Enough” Phase Yet? Earnings Could Fall Off a Cliff In the Next 18-24 Months

August 7th, 2024

Let’s put ourselves in the shoes of a TREX investor this morning.  You walked into the office yesterday thinking that TREX was one of the best secular growth stories in the industrial complex...

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FRPT: Questionable Economics While Entering the Wrong Side of the “S-Curve”; Time to Get Short with a Price...

August 2nd, 2024

“Freshpet strengthens the bond between people and our pets so that we both live longer, healthier and happier lives while being kind to the planet” Freshpet Investor Presentation...

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TRUP: The Inevitability of It All as TRUP Management Faces Deterioration in the “Sinister Six” KPIs

July 15th, 2024

It’s been a quiet couple of months since the abrupt short squeeze (orchestrated) in TRUP shares in mid-to-late May.  Anecdotally, inbound calls on the name have subsided and the stock has bounced between...

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CSGP/Z/ZG/EXPI/HOUS/RDN: PUTTING RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE SERVICES TO THE "BEZOS TEST"

June 10th, 2024

Assessing the winners and losers following the NAR settlement as we ask how Zillow or CoStar can win. Putting residential real estate services to the "Bezos Test" as we try to identify what changes and more importantly what...

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TRUP: About Those Loss Ratios…. It’s Not Just Veterinary Cost Inflation as TRUP Is Forced to Jump From the Frying...

May 23rd, 2024

TRUP shares have rallied an astonishing 50%+ over the past two-weeks. Just as the stock appeared poised to “break down” technically speaking, an unexpected sequence of events caused...

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EXPI: Desperate Times Call For Desperate Measures as Shareholders Are Forced to Foot the Bill to Keep the MLM Comp...

May 14th, 2024

For the past week, we’ve been wondering why EXPI shares rallied roughly 20% following the company’s 1Q24 earnings release. Yes the results were better than expected but the KPIs, notably...

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TREX: Capacity Expansion Into a Slowing End-Market Amidst Heightened Marketing Spend – All Yours for 40x+

May 10th, 2024

“And the comment that I'm making has more do with the amount of capacity that all the wood/plastic composite manufacturers have added over the years, and there's a number of smaller participants in...

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BYON: The Beginning of Beyond

May 8th, 2024

We’re exhausted, so if you’re reading this and you’ve been a long time BYON shareholder then we know that you’re beyond spent.  We initially wrote up BYON/OSTK nearly 5-yaers ago. In that time, the stock crossed $100 on three separate occasions, doubled off its...

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TRUP: Longs Are Stuck in the Trupanion Trap When All of the Grownups Have Left the Building and the Kids Are NOT Alright

May 3rd, 2024

“And as we start to see our margins expand, we will put the foot on the accelerator in terms of our overall pet acquisition, and we'll start to see that number moving in the right...

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ATGE: Chamberlain’s Nursing Crisis (Not the One You’re Thinking Of)

May 1st, 2024

We have watched with faint amusement over the past 3-months as ATGE shares have come under pressure largely due to two short reports published by Safkhet Capital Research. The reports are well written, wonderfully illustrated (the AI use case...

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CWH: Stable Sales and Clean Channel Inventories

April 22nd, 2024

The following report outlines our long thesis on CWH as well as the feedback from our latest survey of independent RV dealers across the country.

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TRUP: The Lowlights From the Shareholder Letter and the Coming Pet Ownership Crisis

April 17th, 2024

“We believe that the low market penetration of medical insurance for pets coupled with our vet-centric model allows for 20% revenue growth for at least another 10 years. Perhaps we could expect growth to slow once we would need to...

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EXPI/HOUS/RDFN/RMAX/Z/ZG/CSGP/DOUG/COMP: Winners and Losers From the Proposed NAR Settlement; 10 Things That WILL...

March 21st, 2024

Last Friday was a rough trading day in the residential real estate services space for ardent supporters of the efficient market hypothesis. After all, the original case against the National...

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TRUP: New York State Department of Financial Services Clamps Down on Trupanion; Other Key Findings from the 2023...

March 7th, 2024

“We expect to roll off a portion of our other business starting in 2025 subject to certain limitations in order to allow us to utilize capital for other purposes, but we do not control the...

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TRUP: Questionable Pricing Power as More State Regulators Question TRUP; 10-K Filing Highlights

February 29th, 2024

“When we went into 2023, we assumed 12% because that was what we saw in '22. We actually saw a 15% level of inflation, which meant that we were already behind the curve, and we had to catch up again. We started in...

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EXPI: The Minsky Moment Arrives for EXPI as Agents Seek Greener Pastures; Will the Company Ever Growth Agent Count...

February 23rd, 2024

The “Minsky moment” has finally arrived for EXPI, as the company’s agent count declined for the first time in history.  Never forget, for EXPI’s AGENTS it’s always...

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CWH: And Now Comes the Growth Phase, Albeit Slow at the Beginning

February 22nd, 2024

“The truth is, for 2023 the only metric that matters for CWH and the RV industry at large is INVENTORY.  Appropriate inventory channel management preserves economics for everyone in the space and positions the industry for growth once again...

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TRUP: An Industry and Company in Crisis – Crashing Enrollment Growth and Accounting Woes Highlight a Long List of...

February 16th, 2024

“While we saw a surge in pet adoptions during the pandemic period, coupled with stimulus and facilitated discretionary spending, the current economic environment means many consumers are...

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TRUP: New York Says “NO” as the Insurance Rate Spiral Gains Speed; Examining TRUP’s Discontinued Operations...

January 16th, 2024

“It should be noted that for Pet Insurance, this Department generally considers renewal increases more than +30% to be unduly burdensome….It should be noted that generally DFS...

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PAA Research’s Fourth Quarter 2023 Lighting Agent Survey - How long can AYI sustain record gross margins with pricing...

January 8th, 2024

PAA Research surveys lighting agents across the country on a semi-annual basis.  The latest survey was conducted in the first two weeks of December.  17 lighting agents responded to our...

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Current Ideas

KNSL

SELL/SHORT

$230

FRPT

SELL/SHORT

$55

BYON

LONG

$70

EXPI

SELL/SHORT

$4

HUSQ.B

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$50

UFPI

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TREX

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PRDO

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STRA

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CWH

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CM

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RY

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ARC

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AYI

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BIG

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WWE

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XOXO

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RLGY

PAIR TRADE

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RDFN

PAIR TRADE

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BCO

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ING.PA

SHORT

$35

TRUP

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CTC

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ATGE

SHORT

$15

HCG.TO

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RON.TO

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ESI

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BGG

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

TTC

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

Z

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NA.TO

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ZU

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TRLA

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MCRS

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$31

APOL

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OPEN

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KNL

PAIR - LONG KNL/SHORT MLHR

25%

CSGP

SHORT

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GCA

LONG

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IPSU

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MLHR

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$22

LOOP

PAIR - LONG CSGP/SHORT LOOP

40%

THQI

LONG

$35

WPO

SHORT

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COCO

SHORT

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HNI

SIG

RGR