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TRUP: As the Growth Story Blows Up Before Our Eyes the Stage Is Set for a Return to Losses and Cash Burn

October 31st, 2024

Well, we can’t help ourselves, we’re going to ask: What about the company’s 3Q24 earnings warranted a 44.0% gain in TRUP shares since the company reported 2Q24 results?  Yes, we hear you. You...

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TRUP: The “Trupanion Trap” Remains Alive and Well as the Company Guides Down Enrollment Growth AGAIN

September 19th, 2024

After listening to TRUP’s management team drone on for 3-4 hours yesterday afternoon, one singular word keeps ringing through our heads: ENTITLEMENT.  Not to worry, this note is not about to devolve into...

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TRUP: With Enrollment Growth Collapsing, Management Is Quickly Approaching the Point of No Return for Its Aging Book of...

August 9th, 2024

Let’s start with an honest question: Why are TRUP shares up 50% in the past 3-months?It’s a perplexing dynamic. Presumably, the company’s 2Q24 results and outlook would have...

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TRUP: The Inevitability of It All as TRUP Management Faces Deterioration in the “Sinister Six” KPIs

July 15th, 2024

It’s been a quiet couple of months since the abrupt short squeeze (orchestrated) in TRUP shares in mid-to-late May.  Anecdotally, inbound calls on the name have subsided and the stock has bounced between...

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TRUP: About Those Loss Ratios…. It’s Not Just Veterinary Cost Inflation as TRUP Is Forced to Jump From the Frying...

May 23rd, 2024

TRUP shares have rallied an astonishing 50%+ over the past two-weeks. Just as the stock appeared poised to “break down” technically speaking, an unexpected sequence of events caused...

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TRUP: Longs Are Stuck in the Trupanion Trap When All of the Grownups Have Left the Building and the Kids Are NOT Alright

May 3rd, 2024

“And as we start to see our margins expand, we will put the foot on the accelerator in terms of our overall pet acquisition, and we'll start to see that number moving in the right...

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TRUP: The Lowlights From the Shareholder Letter and the Coming Pet Ownership Crisis

April 17th, 2024

“We believe that the low market penetration of medical insurance for pets coupled with our vet-centric model allows for 20% revenue growth for at least another 10 years. Perhaps we could expect growth to slow once we would need to...

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TRUP: New York State Department of Financial Services Clamps Down on Trupanion; Other Key Findings from the 2023...

March 7th, 2024

“We expect to roll off a portion of our other business starting in 2025 subject to certain limitations in order to allow us to utilize capital for other purposes, but we do not control the...

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TRUP: Questionable Pricing Power as More State Regulators Question TRUP; 10-K Filing Highlights

February 29th, 2024

“When we went into 2023, we assumed 12% because that was what we saw in '22. We actually saw a 15% level of inflation, which meant that we were already behind the curve, and we had to catch up again. We started in...

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TRUP: An Industry and Company in Crisis – Crashing Enrollment Growth and Accounting Woes Highlight a Long List of...

February 16th, 2024

“While we saw a surge in pet adoptions during the pandemic period, coupled with stimulus and facilitated discretionary spending, the current economic environment means many consumers are...

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TRUP: New York Says “NO” as the Insurance Rate Spiral Gains Speed; Examining TRUP’s Discontinued Operations...

January 16th, 2024

“It should be noted that for Pet Insurance, this Department generally considers renewal increases more than +30% to be unduly burdensome….It should be noted that generally DFS...

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TRUP: Negative Estimate Revisions Incoming as Rising Churn, Weaker Demand, Accelerated Run-Off at Pets Best, and...

October 19th, 2023

“And we expect currently that, that will be fully rolled off by the end of next year. We are still enrolling new business for Pets Best as we sit here today. So there is still a lot...

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TRUP: Why Was TRUP Forced to Meet with the New York Department of Financial Services? Accounting Issues, and Other...

August 24th, 2023

“And then finally, we are, for the first time in our history, overcapitalized, Sometimes, we have cash and we have to put it into risk-based capital as we continue to grow. That is not the case...

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TRUP: Six Key Takeaways from TRUP’s 2Q23 Results as the Insurance Rate Spiral Gains Speed and the Company Approaches...

August 4th, 2023

Even though we know we would be better off not listening to a single word from the TRUP management team, we simply cannot turn our attention away.  It is utterly fascinating to us that a loss...

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TRUP: Slamming the Brakes? Latest Florida Rate and Policy Change Request Exposes Many of TRUP’s Massive Problems in...

July 26th, 2023

It’s hard to believe but almost three months have passed since TRUP reported disastrous 1Q23 operating results highlighted by a skyrocketing loss ratio and higher than expected cash burn. ...

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TRUP: A Company in Crisis – Key Observations from the TRUP Shareholder Meeting and Latest Objection Response in CA

June 9th, 2023

We spent the better part of Wednesday listening to a gaggle of Trupanion executives discuss their business and the opportunities ahead.  From our seat, thousands of miles away, the tension in the...

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TRUP: The Most Frightening Chart for TRUP Longs; Key Findings from the Latest California “Objection Response” and...

May 16th, 2023

Very few TRUP investors take the time to review the statutory statements from the company’s primary underwriting subsidiary, American Pet Insurance Company (APIC).  We think this is a huge...

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TRUP: California Asks More Questions

May 9th, 2023

On 5/9/23, The California Department of Insurance filed yet ANOTHER Objection Response to Trupanion’s 2023 28% base rate increase request. To put things in perspective, the original rate increase request was filed on 12/6/22.  On 2/14/23, American Pet Insurance...

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TRUP: Contextualizing “Trust” as Investors Wrangle with TRUP’s Capital Incineration and Other Issues, Lowering...

May 5th, 2023

“At Trupanion, we value trust and transparency. These values form the basis of our interactions with all stakeholders, including pet owners, veterinarians and their staff, state regulators,...

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TRUP: Key Observations and Questions from the Latest State Regulatory Filing as a Critical Price Increase Is Placed on...

April 24th, 2023

Maria Ripps, Analyst Canaccord Genuity Corp., Research Division “Got it. And going back to price increases, I believe there were still a couple of different markets, where they were not...

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TRUP: First Pets Best, Now TRUP’s Partnerships with AFL and CHWY Are Under Intense Scrutiny from Regulators

April 17th, 2023

“Yes. I mean, at the highest level, this [the decision to fire the CFO, General Counsel, and EVP of Pricing] comes down to decentralization….” Margaret Tooth, President, Trupanion Inc....

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TRUP: The Plot Thickens in California

March 24th, 2023

Yesterday, we published a note outlining the details of a previously undisclosed investigation from the Insurance Commissioner in the State of California related to TRUP’s “pricing policies”.  The Insurance Commissioner in California filed an enforcement...

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TRUP: When You Blow Out THREE C-Level Executives In a Single Day, the Road Might Just Lead You to California

March 23rd, 2023

Close your eyes for a moment and imagine a stock with the following dynamics thus far in 2023: The company guided down significantly on both a revenue and EBITDA basis for 2023 The company lost its...

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TRUP: Troubling Details Emerge from the 10-K and American Pet Insurance Company Statutory Statements

March 7th, 2023

It’s kind of remarkable that TRUP shares are down a meager (-5.4%) since the company reported 4Q22 results, delivered disappointing 1Q23 and 2023 guidance, and announced that it was unwinding the relationship with...

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TRUP: The Narrative Cannot Hold When the Business Model Breaks

February 16th, 2023

The year is 2023 and TRUP is no closer to generating profitability than it was when the company went public back in 2014.  It’s a remarkable achievement.  In 2014, TRUP generated Adjusted EBITDA of (-$10MM), not too far off from the meager...

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TRUP: Trying to Solve the California Crisis - TRUP Requests a 28%(!) Base Rate Increase in CA for 2023

December 7th, 2022

“Let me map it out because I know it can be a little difficult. So we had going through the third quarter 7% rate. During the third quarter and into October, we did additional filings, which now brings what we...

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TRUP: A Broken Covenant and Now a Test of Faith

November 4th, 2022

There has been a covenant of sorts between TRUP management and the investment community, at least those that are willing to take a leap of faith on the company’s stock.  TRUP management crafted a narrative around low TAM penetration of pet insurance in the...

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TRUP: The Four Biggest Problems Facing TRUP Right Now

October 10th, 2022

Over the past week, TRUP shares have been noticeably weak, underperforming the broader indices by roughly (-14%).  In the past we would expect a high beta, TAM/growth story like TRUP to generate 5-10% returns in a scenario in which the indices rallied...

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TRUP: The Narrative Blew Up and the Loss Rate Spiral Could Be Upon Us

August 4th, 2022

Aside from profitless prosperity, there is one thing that TRUP management truly has mastered: narrative.  It’s absolutely remarkable that the company still has a market cap approaching $3.0B when the only thing that TRUP has demonstrated...

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TRUP: JAB Goes All in on Pet Insurance Which Could Accelerate TRUP’s Struggles

June 21st, 2022

Yesterday, JAB Holding Company announced the largest acquisition in the history of the pet insurance industry.  Through the transaction, JAB will acquire the Crum & Forster Pet Insurance Group and PetHealth Inc. from Fairfax...

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