There is little doubt that the for-profit postsecondary education sector has been under siege for the past 2-3 years. Most stocks in the space are trading at or near their 52-week lows and at valuations most investors and management teams in...
READ MORE >On 12/15/11 we introduced APOL as a short idea (see “The Monster is Out of the Cage and APOL’s Secular Decline Begins in Earnest”). Our thesis at that time was predicated on the following: Demographic trends were...
READ MORE >It’s True They Did Beat, But….ESI reported 1Q12 revenue and EPS results that were significantly better than consensus estimates. Despite the overall outperformance, there are CLEAR signs now that...
READ MORE >Today the 1Q12 earnings season in the for-profit postsecondary education sector kicks off in earnest. Thus far, many of the 12 issues that we thought would matter most this year have weighed...
READ MORE >If we have learned anything over the past 12 years in which we have been following ESI as analysts and investors it is this: never underestimate the guile of the company’s management team, particularly when it comes to crafting...
READ MORE >The statistics in many respects are simply overwhelming. Consider the following: More than 700,000 students have now graduated from the University of Phoenix Stated another way, 1 in roughly 450 Americans has a degree from the...
READ MORE >Admittedly, WPO’s 4Q11 results beat our estimates by a wide margin. Normally this type of EPS upside would yield a more meaningful reaction in any given company’s stock price – that did not happen. WPO...
READ MORE >Approximately 3-months ago we published a report entitled: “The Monster Is Out of the Cage and APOL’s Secular Decline Begins in Earnest” in which we outlined our short thesis for APOL. Below we quickly review the principal tenets of the secular short case...
READ MORE >It seems like an outlandish question to ask on a day when COCO shares have gapped up a draw-dropping 30% in response to a modest earnings beat that was almost entirely driven by lower bad-debt expense and a 2Q12 enrollment intake that was inline with expectations. However, we think...
READ MORE >It’s True They Did Beat, But….ESI reported 4Q11 revenue and EPS results that were significantly better than consensus estimates. Despite the overall outperformance, many of the critical underlying metrics the company reported were weak and/or should...
READ MORE >Yesterday we published a lengthy report that outlined the 12 issues that we think will have the greatest impact on the enrollment, revenue, EPS and stock sentiment of the publicly traded for-profit...
READ MORE >Perhaps it happens every year, but the relative outperformance of last year’s losers compared to the prior year’s winners has been particularly pronounced thus far in 2012. The 25 worst...
READ MORE >APOL reported 1Q12 enrollment and earnings results that on the surface, at least looked like exactly what bulls on the stock were hoping for. To quickly review: The company posted slight revenue upside and beat on EPS by a...
READ MORE >It used to be something that operators in the for-profit postsecondary education space could joke about with investors. When asked what would represent the biggest competitive threat to their enrollment growth prospects, 5-years ago...
READ MORE >ESI reported inline revenues and a healthy 3Q11 EPS beat. New student starts and total enrollments were both better than our expectations, but still showed weakening trends on a 2-year stacked basis. There are some in the sell-side...
READ MORE >What a difference a few months can make. To put the performance of the publicly traded for-profit postsecondary education companies in perspective for the past few months, we thought it might be...
READ MORE >In an article on Insidehighered.com today entitled “Hitting Hard at Fraud”, more details on the extent of online fraud rings in higher education have emerged. As a reminder, two weeks ago, the Department of...
READ MORE >Earlier today PAA Research hosted a conference call with Deanne Loonin of the National Consumer Law Center, one of the best known and most influential non-profit consumer advocacy organizations in the...
READ MORE >PAA Research will host a conference call TODAY at 2:30PM ET with Deanne Loonin of the National Consumer Law Center, one of the best known and most influential non-profit consumer advocacy...
READ MORE >PAA Research will host a conference call at 2:30PM ET Wednesday October 5th with Deanne Loonin of the National Consumer Law Center, one of the best known and most influential non-profit consumer...
READ MORE >Earlier this week, the Department of Education’s Office of Inspector General published an investigative program advisory report on “Online Education Fraud Rings”. The report was sent to Federal Student Aid (FSA) and...
READ MORE >PAA Research will host a conference call at 2:30PM ET Wednesday October 5th with Deanne Loonin of the National Consumer Law Center, one of the best known and most influential non-profit consumer...
READ MORE >On Friday, WPO management hosted its bi-annual shareholder day. If ever we had any doubts about our long term secular short case for WPO shares, they were all but removed following a series of management presentations. Based on the tenor and...
READ MORE >Approximately 5-6 weeks ago, we published an industry report on the for-profit postsecondary education industry entitled “12 Reasons Why We Remain Bearish; Observations from Our Proprietary Paid Search Analysis”. The subject matter of the report is somewhat self-explanatory. Now that...
READ MORE >We are 24-hours away from what might be the single most important earnings release and conference call in the history of Corinthian Colleges, Inc. The (-50.7%) decline in COCO shares over the past month, even in the context of the broader market decline has been nothing short of...
READ MORE >Key Observations from ESI’s 2Q11 Results and Summer Term Enrollment IntakeESI reported a headline revenue and EPS beat for 2Q11, but we think most investors are likely to be focused on the rapid deceleration in new student starts witnessed in the Summer term. Despite the revenue...
READ MORE >For the past six weeks, we feel like we have been “spitting into the wind” when it comes to our bearish call on stocks in the for-profit postsecondary education sector. Despite our best efforts...
READ MORE >Approximately one-month ago, we published a report entitled “Connecting the Dots on ESI’s Increasingly Worrisome Off-Balance Sheet Exposure – The Potential Daisy Chain of Events”. Apparently our comprehensive and detailed...
READ MORE >In the 6 trading days following APOL’s earnings release, the shares of publicly traded for-profit postsecondary education companies have rallied anywhere from 10-20% compared to a modest sell-off of (-0.2%) for...
READ MORE >COCO Announces New “Private Loan” Facility, And We Use That Term Loosely This morning, COCO announced a new “private loan” facility with ASFG LLC, presumably a subsidiary of American Student...
READ MORE >SELL/SHORT
$4
SELL
$50
SELL/SHORT
$45
SHORT
$18
SELL/SHORT
$5
SELL/SHORT
$42
LONG
$75
LONG
$128
SELL/SHORT
$50
SELL/SHORT
$50
LONG
$5.50
SHORT
$50
SHORT
$28
LONG
$65
LONG
$37
PAIR TRADE
$10
PAIR TRADE
$30
LONG
$35
SHORT
$35
SELL/SHORT
$10
SHORT
$101
SHORT
$15
SHORT
$0
SHORT
$9
SHORT
$0
PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC
25%
PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC
25%
SHORT
$14.00
SHORT
$22
SHORT
$15
SHORT
$20
SHORT
$31
SHORT
$35
SHORT
$30
PAIR - LONG KNL/SHORT MLHR
25%
SHORT
$100
LONG
$8
LONG
$20
SHORT
$22
PAIR - LONG CSGP/SHORT LOOP
40%
LONG
$35
SHORT
$275
SHORT
$0