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ATGE: Declining NCLEX Scores Could Have Negative Repercussions on Enrollment Growth at Chamberlain

April 5th, 2023

“Looking at our segments, total enrollment at Chamberlain continued to show modest improvement during the quarter, supported by the success of campus-based BSN programs” Stephen Beard, President and CEO...

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PRDO: If You Read the 10-K Not the Earnings Release for Guidance, You’ll Know a Cat 5 Storm Could Be Coming to...

February 24th, 2023

“It’s absolutely ridiculous that anyone would buy shares in a company after reading an earnings release instead of the annual report” Charlie Munger (Probably) “As...

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STRA: Three Critical Observations from the Earnings Report of a Secularly Challenged For-Profit Education Company...

February 23rd, 2023

“We had probably the only thing that was a little bit of a surprise is we had a little bit higher bad debt than we expected. That's typical. Now with the benefit of hindsight, when we have...

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ATGE: A Storm Is Brewing as ATGE Celebrates Two Decades on a March to Nowhere for Shareholders

February 3rd, 2023

“And I'd also say, with the expansion of our nursing schools going forward, probably is somewhere around an incremental investment of $150 million in '23 compared to what we ran in '22. We didn't call...

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STRA: Why Is Management Lying About Lead Trends? Maybe It’s to Distract from Awful Earnings; Lowering Price Objective...

July 27th, 2022

“As I said a moment ago, we've seen a significant inflection in demand in our U.S. Higher Education segment. Inquiry volume is up more than 20% from the prior year. And within Strayer...

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ATGE: Management Puts on a Brave Face as Starts Deteriorate

May 6th, 2022

Another quarter and another 20-25 minute earnings conference call where ATGE management attempted to blame COVID19 for all of their demand and operational woes.  There is no doubt that COVID19 has created a significant headwind for demand for nursing...

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PRDO: We’ve Seen This Story Before, It’s What the Beginning of the End Looks Like

February 25th, 2022

Over the past 20 years, we have become particularly adept at identifying the early stages of a potential “death spiral” for a for-profit education company.   From a notional perspective, for-profit education...

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ATGE: This Isn’t Just a COVID19 Problem; Reducing Estimates

February 9th, 2022

ATGE management would like investors to believe that the company’s disastrous 2Q22 results and weak outlook for the remainder of the year are solely a function of the surge in COVID19 case counts over the past 3-4 months.  There is no doubt that...

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ATGE: The Irrational Bid in Corporate America Remains Alive and Well, Now Comes the Hard Part for ATGE

January 24th, 2022

This morning ATGE announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement to sell its Financial Services division in two separate transactions for a combined purchase price of $1 billion.  First, ACAMS the...

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ATGE: Zombie Company Walking – How ATGE’s Leverage Could Quickly Blow Out to 6.0-7.0x EBITDA

January 21st, 2022

“Starting in the month of June, among our licensed registered nursing student body at Aspen University, working nurses were needed on the front lines for patient care and, frankly, showed clear signs of fatigue. This...

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PRDO: Nelson Finally Steps Down, Don’t Let the Door Hit You….

January 21st, 2022

Yesterday after the close, PRDO announced that Todd Nelson stepped down as President and CEO of PRDO effective 1/20/22. That’s right, no transition period.  This is a meaningful development for PRDO, the higher education industry, and our...

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PRDO: Starts Weakness Suggests EPS Power Could Unravel QUICKLY for PRDO, Mapping PRDO’s Huge Cash Uses, Lowering...

November 5th, 2021

Heading into PRDO’s earnings release, we never know what to expect. It is the hallmark of the company to do everything in its power to sustain a mirage of growth, stable enrollment, and...

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PRDO: Borrower Defense to Repayment Claims Could Imperil PRDO’s Cash Balances; What About ATGE?

August 6th, 2021

“The most common types of conduct that might make a borrower eligible for loan relief through borrower defense to repayment discharge are misrepresentations of the truth made by the school or its representatives...

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TRUP: Another Challenging M&A Comp for Trupanion

May 18th, 2021

Over the past 2-3 years there have been two landmark M&A transactions in the pet insurance space.  First, SYF acquired Pets Best in March 2019 for roughly $80MM. No more than a month later, specialty insurance player WTM purchased Embrace for $73MM. ...

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PRDO: From the Frying Pan to the Fire – New 90/10 Proposal Represents an Existential Threat to PRDO, Is This...

February 9th, 2021

“We have implemented various measures intended to reduce the percentage of our institution's cash basis revenue attributable to Title IV Program funds, including AIU’s deferred...

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ATGE: The Walden Conundrum and Other Suspect Reasoning

February 3rd, 2021

“Despite the tremendous opportunity at the Company, we have serious concerns about the ability of the Board of Directors (the “Board”) and management team to realize the Company’s true potential, allocate capital appropriately, and...

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ATGE: The March to Nowhere Continues; Revised Estimates

August 19th, 2020

“What I mentioned before was not so much decline in ACAMS, but our desire to see it grow a lot faster, given what we know are the opportunities…. So from our perspective, we're at an inflection point at ACAMS, growth has plateaued a...

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PRDO: Is AIU Unraveling Before Our Eyes While the Walls Close in on CTU?

August 7th, 2020

“I did read the article. I thought -- again, it was -- some of the arguments, again, I felt were very outdated, and frankly, some of them are just not -- again, I don't think really applied, but that's my opinion. But regarding the...

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STRA: The Writing Is on the Wall as Strayer Faces Its “Minsky Moment”; Lowering Price Objective to $56

July 30th, 2020

“ Strayer's leading indicators have remained relatively stable and strong for the past 8 weeks, essentially staying well above last year's targets on a quarter-to-date basis. What portion of this...

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PRDO: What Is the Status of GI Bill Funding for AIU and CTU Students? What Happened in New York? Other Key Questions...

May 6th, 2020

We wanted to quickly go through some key questions that PRDO faces as we approach the company’s 1Q20 earnings release and conference call.  Sadly, we doubt that the company will address...

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ATGE: The Company’s 3Q20 Margin Miracle Is a Mirage; Don’t Be Too Quick to Celebrate Chamberlain Start Growth,...

May 6th, 2020

“The increase in segment operating income is the result of strong Chamberlain enrollment trends and efforts to increase efficiency and reduce travel and discretionary spend, partially offset by...

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STRA: This Is Not Your Uncle’s Higher Ed Market; Secular Headwinds and Now a Demand Shock, Time to Sell with a $63...

March 31st, 2020

“Given that more than 95% of our students are already taking all of their classes online and given that we have the capability to operate our company with our entire workforce working remotely,...

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PRDO: “90/10” Kill Zone? Potential Loss of VA Funding Could Create Massive Regulatory Issues for CTU/ AIU as Well...

March 9th, 2020

In a press release today, the U.S. Department of Veteran Affairs announced that it would disapprove the enrollment of new GI Bill students at the following five institutions: University of...

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ATGE: Are You Insulted? At the Very Least Investors Should Be Gravely Concerned About the Sudden Surge in Bad-Debt...

February 5th, 2020

We’re nearly four years into the Wardell regime at ATGE and there are only a few things that we can conclusively state about the current management team at the company: They appear...

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CECO: Another Nelson Signature – Awful Earnings Quality

November 7th, 2019

If you’ve followed Todd Nelson’s career in the for-profit education space over the years, a few core competencies become evident: Running “fast and loose” with regulatory compliance Achieving enrollment growth at any cost for...

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ATGE: Management Slashes Guidance; Remember When Nursing, Med, and Vet Schools Were Supposed to Be Growth Platforms?

October 30th, 2019

“Overall, we're pleased with our top line growth in the quarter, and we believe our stepped-up investments in marketing, along with increased corporate cost discipline position us well to...

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CECO: A Case of History Repeating Itself in the Worst Possible Way?

September 18th, 2019

It’s been an interesting six weeks for Career Education Corporation.  In the time since we introduced CECO as a short idea, the stock has witnessed a 20%+ rally following the company’s 2Q19 earnings results, only to give up almost all...

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ATGE: 4Q19 - When Corporate Overhead Becomes a “Plug” to Meet Consensus EPS Expectations, While Enrollment Metrics...

August 23rd, 2019

Question – Jeffrey Marc Silber: Okay. And then sorry, just one more question on the quarter. Just looking at some of the details, if I look at the home office expense, even...

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CECO: Failing Grades in Brand, Price, and Programmatic Differentiation + Todd Nelson? Time to Sell

August 1st, 2019

“The proliferation of outsourced online degree programs offered by traditional academic institutions has changed the competitive landscape in higher education.  The programs require almost no capital investment...

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ATGE: Don’t Let the Headline Numbers Fool You, the Business Remains on a March to Nowhere

November 2nd, 2018

To put it simply, ATGE trades like a company that generates mid-to-high single digit YOY organic revenue growth consistently. Every year for the past seven years, ATGE management (both prior and current) has dangled a mid-single...

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