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EXPI: The Minsky Moment Arrives for EXPI as Agents Seek Greener Pastures; Will the Company Ever Growth Agent Count...

February 23rd, 2024

The “Minsky moment” has finally arrived for EXPI, as the company’s agent count declined for the first time in history.  Never forget, for EXPI’s AGENTS it’s always...

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CWH: And Now Comes the Growth Phase, Albeit Slow at the Beginning

February 22nd, 2024

“The truth is, for 2023 the only metric that matters for CWH and the RV industry at large is INVENTORY.  Appropriate inventory channel management preserves economics for everyone in the space and positions the industry for growth once again...

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OSTK: The Winds of Change Are Whipping Across the Peace Coliseum

October 26th, 2023

“Again, we covered a lot and provided more color and guidance than we usually do. In that spirit, I want to remind you that we are here today to discuss our financial results and the progress we made integrating Bed Bath & Beyond. We appreciate...

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CWH: Setting the Stage for the Next Cycle - PAA Research's Fall 2023 RV Dealer Survey

October 12th, 2023

In our view there are four issues that are paramount for CWH shares and that will dictate how the stock trades over the short term 1.How much will demand pull forward in 2020-1H22 impact sales of RVs going forward?  The RV...

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EXPI: Management Starts to Panic as Agent Losses to Upstarts Mount; Watch Out for LPT Realty

September 11th, 2023

“I was at eXp for 3 years, made ICON Agent every year, but the opportunity to build a big downline at eXp is long gone. I went to LPT Realty and have grown from 30 agents to almost 300 in one year. Best thing I could of...

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EXPI: Concerns About Agent Quality and the Erosion of Downline Revenues Should Be Paramount as the Battle for Talent...

August 15th, 2023

Perhaps sell-side analysts and investors still don’t understand the true nature of EXPI’s business. There’s a reason this company has missed EBITDA expectations SEVEN out of the...

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CWH: Success Managing Inventory in 2023 Sets the Stage for Growth in 2024 and Beyond

August 3rd, 2023

“And so we feel like the channel is very, very clean right now…. And there's been tremendous discipline. But we're encouraged and optimistic as it relates to really the cleanliness of the inventories and the weeks...

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EXPI: When EBITDA in the Best Possible Market is $80MM and ZERO (or worse) in a Downturn, What’s That Business Worth?

March 1st, 2023

Amidst all of the gibberish about “net promoter score”, Bain consulting books, and nonsense technological assertions, there are some core realities related to EXPI that probably should be...

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CWH: For 2023, Inventory Is All That Matters

February 22nd, 2023

“We said on retail 370,000 to 390,000 is our expectation. Wholesale 325,000 to 350,000.” Brian Michael Hall, CFO, LCI Industries. 2/14/23. 4Q22 Earnings Conf. Call “The one thing that I'm noticing that is different than any other soft period...

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EXPI: All They Do Is Miss, Dilute Shareholders, and Try to Hold the Multi-Level Marketing Scheme Together; Lowering...

November 2nd, 2022

Here are some fun facts: EXPI missed consensus EBITDA expectations in four of the past five quarters 12-months ago the consensus estimate for EXPI’s FY22 EPS was $0.78. We now estimate...

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CWH: Bears Swimming Against the Tide; When Estimates Go Down and the Stock Goes Up, the Short Interest Starts to Loom...

May 4th, 2022

For the past two years, we have listened to criticism after criticism of Marcus Lemonis and Camping World.   Skeptics typically bring up the following issues when criticizing Marcus, his...

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CWH: Time to Shine

April 4th, 2022

Our latest RV dealer checks suggest industry demand remains solid while inventory levels have started to normalize. More importantly we think we are moving into an environment were the merits of CWH's strategic growth initiatives introduced over the past 2-3 years should start to shine. ...

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CWH: “Stress Test” Estimates on Dealer Productivity Suggest a Potential Earnings Floor of $3.50-$4.00/Share

February 23rd, 2022

Over the past 5-years, Marcus Lemonis and his team at CWH achieved a number of accomplishments including: Increased company revenues by more than 50% Expanded CWH’s leadership at the top of RV...

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EXPI: When the Stock Price Is Your Most Important Fundamental – the SEC Subpoena Version

November 4th, 2021

“On June 1, 2021, the Company received a subpoena issued by the staff of the Division of Enforcement of the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC Staff”) requesting certain documentation and information...

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CWH: At Your Service, Exploring Camping World's $8-$12B Service Revenue Opportunity; RV Dealer Survey Feedback

October 14th, 2021

Camping World investors remain overly obsessed with new RV sales at a time when the company's growth prospects are increasingly tethered to high margin revenue sources such as service, rentals, camping...

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EXPI: As Good as It Will Ever Get? EXPI is the Poster Child for the Bubble in Real Estate Agents

August 5th, 2021

               “For the Indians, one run on, let’s see, one hit? That’s all we got? One g—damn hit?” Harry Doyle....

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CWH: A Simple Sanity Check Suggests the EBITDA Floor Is Higher Than You Think

August 4th, 2021

For those who think they’re really good at playing this game, we present you the following question: A year ago consensus estimates for FY21 EBITDA for CWH were $293MM.  By tomorrow, we expect consensus EBITDA estimates for CWH for...

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EXPI: Slowing Agent Productivity Gains Are the First (of Many) Red Flags in a White Hot Housing Market; Let the...

May 6th, 2021

Well that was quite the round trip.  No one rings the bell when valuation compression starts, or for that matter when it stops. EXPI shareholders and their agents (one in the same in this case),...

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CWH: Breaking Through the Ceiling Creates a New Floor; Raising Estimates

May 5th, 2021

For the past 6-9 months, every single one of our conversations around CWH revolved around a single question: When will demand collapse?  Put this in the category of “every general fights the last war”.  Even after crushing...

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CWH: The Inventory Advantage, Raising Target to $75, PAA Research's Spring 2021 RV Dealer Survey

April 27th, 2021

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EXPI: As Good as It Will Ever Get? Someone Needs to Tell EXPI’s New Agents That Downline Opportunities for Passive...

November 12th, 2020

Following a quarter in which EXPI added more than 4,700 agents, generated more than $23.6B in transaction volume, and of course increased the share count by 3MM, there’s really only one...

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CWH: Camping World Shares Are Absurdly Cheap and Ten Other Things We Know for Certain

November 3rd, 2020

Eighty-one cents?! That’s all CWH gained yesterday following a quarter during which the generated 26.9% same store sales growth, delivered 740 bps of gross profit margin expansion, efficiently managed G&A costs, and beat...

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CWH: Building the "Costco of Camping" - Our Letter to Buffett and Munger

October 13th, 2020

We sent the attached slide deck along with individual letters to Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger. This is the second time we have sent a letter to Warren Buffett. Eleven years ago, we sent a letter to Mr. Buffett to illuminate some of the...

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EXPI: When Stock Price Is Your Only Fundamental, It’s Time To Sell; Introducing EXPI as a Short Idea with a Price...

September 28th, 2020

The stock market has been extraordinarily kind to “fake it until you make it” stories that operate in large total addressable markets (TAM).  If you run a long/short book in any...

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CWH: What a Successful Launch of the “AirBnB” for the RV Space Could Mean for Camping World – An Absolute Game...

August 26th, 2020

“As we think about the possibilities of it, it wouldn't surprise me if we -- it wouldn't surprise me if we stayed away from the rental business, but we looked at alternative technology...

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CWH: Camping World Is Getting Back to Its Compounding/Market Share Gain Roots, $3.00+ in EPS Is in Sight, Raising Price...

August 6th, 2020

“So we have 2 goals going forward; grow our total file size [customers] profitably, by the way; and grow the average spend per member. That is our business model, and it always has been. We did...

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RLGY: Collateral Damage in the Battle Between the Four Horsemen of the Real Estate Services Apocalypse

May 2nd, 2019

“I am on the hunt for new and bigger ideas that can change our company and even the industry. I know we have to keep thinking bigger given the industry dynamics and our need to create more shareholder...

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The Tipping Point Has Been Reached - Introducing a New Pair Trade Long RDFN/Short RLGY, Update to our Zillow Short...

October 22nd, 2018

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DV: DeVry Has a Massive Nursing Problem; Time to Short Excess Pricing (and Profits) Generated from RN-BSN Programs

December 16th, 2016

                “I've got depth of perception in my text y'all I get props at my mention 'cause I vex y'all So what'cha...

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BIG: Celebrating Mediocrity, While Investors Are Left to Ponder How Long Financial Engineering Can Prop Up EPS,...

December 5th, 2016

“It's just that I've never seen people celebrate mediocrity the way you do.” Jack Byrnes (Robert DeNiro). Meet the Fockers. Dir. Jay Roach. Universal Studios 2004. For...

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Current Ideas

EXPI

SELL/SHORT

$4

HUSQ.B

SELL

$50

UFPI

SELL/SHORT

$45

TREX

SHORT

$18

PRDO

SELL/SHORT

$5

STRA

SELL/SHORT

$42

CWH

LONG

$75

OSTK

LONG

$128

CM

SELL/SHORT

$50

RY

SELL/SHORT

$50

ARC

LONG

$5.50

AYI

SHORT

$50

BIG

SHORT

$28

WWE

LONG

$65

XOXO

LONG

$37

RLGY

PAIR TRADE

$10

RDFN

PAIR TRADE

$30

BCO

LONG

$35

ING.PA

SHORT

$35

TRUP

SELL/SHORT

$10

CTC

SHORT

$101

ATGE

SHORT

$15

HCG.TO

SHORT

$0

RON.TO

SHORT

$9

ESI

SHORT

$0

BGG

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

TTC

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

Z

SHORT

$14.00

NA.TO

SHORT

$22

ZU

SHORT

$15

TRLA

SHORT

$20

MCRS

SHORT

$31

APOL

SHORT

$35

OPEN

SHORT

$30

KNL

PAIR - LONG KNL/SHORT MLHR

25%

CSGP

SHORT

$100

GCA

LONG

$8

IPSU

LONG

$20

MLHR

SHORT

$22

LOOP

PAIR - LONG CSGP/SHORT LOOP

40%

THQI

LONG

$35

WPO

SHORT

$275

COCO

SHORT

$0

HNI

SIG

RGR