Log In

TRUP: New York State Department of Financial Services Clamps Down on Trupanion; Other Key Findings from the 2023...

March 7th, 2024

“We expect to roll off a portion of our other business starting in 2025 subject to certain limitations in order to allow us to utilize capital for other purposes, but we do not control the...

READ MORE >

TRUP: Questionable Pricing Power as More State Regulators Question TRUP; 10-K Filing Highlights

February 29th, 2024

“When we went into 2023, we assumed 12% because that was what we saw in '22. We actually saw a 15% level of inflation, which meant that we were already behind the curve, and we had to catch up again. We started in...

READ MORE >

TRUP: An Industry and Company in Crisis – Crashing Enrollment Growth and Accounting Woes Highlight a Long List of...

February 16th, 2024

“While we saw a surge in pet adoptions during the pandemic period, coupled with stimulus and facilitated discretionary spending, the current economic environment means many consumers are...

READ MORE >

TRUP: New York Says “NO” as the Insurance Rate Spiral Gains Speed; Examining TRUP’s Discontinued Operations...

January 16th, 2024

“It should be noted that for Pet Insurance, this Department generally considers renewal increases more than +30% to be unduly burdensome….It should be noted that generally DFS...

READ MORE >

TRUP: Negative Estimate Revisions Incoming as Rising Churn, Weaker Demand, Accelerated Run-Off at Pets Best, and...

October 19th, 2023

“And we expect currently that, that will be fully rolled off by the end of next year. We are still enrolling new business for Pets Best as we sit here today. So there is still a lot...

READ MORE >

TRUP: Why Was TRUP Forced to Meet with the New York Department of Financial Services? Accounting Issues, and Other...

August 24th, 2023

“And then finally, we are, for the first time in our history, overcapitalized, Sometimes, we have cash and we have to put it into risk-based capital as we continue to grow. That is not the case...

READ MORE >

TRUP: Six Key Takeaways from TRUP’s 2Q23 Results as the Insurance Rate Spiral Gains Speed and the Company Approaches...

August 4th, 2023

Even though we know we would be better off not listening to a single word from the TRUP management team, we simply cannot turn our attention away.  It is utterly fascinating to us that a loss...

READ MORE >

TRUP: Slamming the Brakes? Latest Florida Rate and Policy Change Request Exposes Many of TRUP’s Massive Problems in...

July 26th, 2023

It’s hard to believe but almost three months have passed since TRUP reported disastrous 1Q23 operating results highlighted by a skyrocketing loss ratio and higher than expected cash burn. ...

READ MORE >

TRUP: A Company in Crisis – Key Observations from the TRUP Shareholder Meeting and Latest Objection Response in CA

June 9th, 2023

We spent the better part of Wednesday listening to a gaggle of Trupanion executives discuss their business and the opportunities ahead.  From our seat, thousands of miles away, the tension in the...

READ MORE >

TRUP: The Most Frightening Chart for TRUP Longs; Key Findings from the Latest California “Objection Response” and...

May 16th, 2023

Very few TRUP investors take the time to review the statutory statements from the company’s primary underwriting subsidiary, American Pet Insurance Company (APIC).  We think this is a huge...

READ MORE >

TRUP: California Asks More Questions

May 9th, 2023

On 5/9/23, The California Department of Insurance filed yet ANOTHER Objection Response to Trupanion’s 2023 28% base rate increase request. To put things in perspective, the original rate increase request was filed on 12/6/22.  On 2/14/23, American Pet Insurance...

READ MORE >

TRUP: Contextualizing “Trust” as Investors Wrangle with TRUP’s Capital Incineration and Other Issues, Lowering...

May 5th, 2023

“At Trupanion, we value trust and transparency. These values form the basis of our interactions with all stakeholders, including pet owners, veterinarians and their staff, state regulators,...

READ MORE >

TRUP: Key Observations and Questions from the Latest State Regulatory Filing as a Critical Price Increase Is Placed on...

April 24th, 2023

Maria Ripps, Analyst Canaccord Genuity Corp., Research Division “Got it. And going back to price increases, I believe there were still a couple of different markets, where they were not...

READ MORE >

TRUP: First Pets Best, Now TRUP’s Partnerships with AFL and CHWY Are Under Intense Scrutiny from Regulators

April 17th, 2023

“Yes. I mean, at the highest level, this [the decision to fire the CFO, General Counsel, and EVP of Pricing] comes down to decentralization….” Margaret Tooth, President, Trupanion Inc....

READ MORE >

TRUP: The Plot Thickens in California

March 24th, 2023

Yesterday, we published a note outlining the details of a previously undisclosed investigation from the Insurance Commissioner in the State of California related to TRUP’s “pricing policies”.  The Insurance Commissioner in California filed an enforcement...

READ MORE >

TRUP: When You Blow Out THREE C-Level Executives In a Single Day, the Road Might Just Lead You to California

March 23rd, 2023

Close your eyes for a moment and imagine a stock with the following dynamics thus far in 2023: The company guided down significantly on both a revenue and EBITDA basis for 2023 The company lost its...

READ MORE >

TRUP: Troubling Details Emerge from the 10-K and American Pet Insurance Company Statutory Statements

March 7th, 2023

It’s kind of remarkable that TRUP shares are down a meager (-5.4%) since the company reported 4Q22 results, delivered disappointing 1Q23 and 2023 guidance, and announced that it was unwinding the relationship with...

READ MORE >

TRUP: The Narrative Cannot Hold When the Business Model Breaks

February 16th, 2023

The year is 2023 and TRUP is no closer to generating profitability than it was when the company went public back in 2014.  It’s a remarkable achievement.  In 2014, TRUP generated Adjusted EBITDA of (-$10MM), not too far off from the meager...

READ MORE >

TRUP: Trying to Solve the California Crisis - TRUP Requests a 28%(!) Base Rate Increase in CA for 2023

December 7th, 2022

“Let me map it out because I know it can be a little difficult. So we had going through the third quarter 7% rate. During the third quarter and into October, we did additional filings, which now brings what we...

READ MORE >

TRUP: A Broken Covenant and Now a Test of Faith

November 4th, 2022

There has been a covenant of sorts between TRUP management and the investment community, at least those that are willing to take a leap of faith on the company’s stock.  TRUP management crafted a narrative around low TAM penetration of pet insurance in the...

READ MORE >

TRUP: The Four Biggest Problems Facing TRUP Right Now

October 10th, 2022

Over the past week, TRUP shares have been noticeably weak, underperforming the broader indices by roughly (-14%).  In the past we would expect a high beta, TAM/growth story like TRUP to generate 5-10% returns in a scenario in which the indices rallied...

READ MORE >

TRUP: The Narrative Blew Up and the Loss Rate Spiral Could Be Upon Us

August 4th, 2022

Aside from profitless prosperity, there is one thing that TRUP management truly has mastered: narrative.  It’s absolutely remarkable that the company still has a market cap approaching $3.0B when the only thing that TRUP has demonstrated...

READ MORE >

TRUP: JAB Goes All in on Pet Insurance Which Could Accelerate TRUP’s Struggles

June 21st, 2022

Yesterday, JAB Holding Company announced the largest acquisition in the history of the pet insurance industry.  Through the transaction, JAB will acquire the Crum & Forster Pet Insurance Group and PetHealth Inc. from Fairfax...

READ MORE >

TRUP: Not Now, Not Ever; This Is What the Start of a Broken Growth Story Looks Like

April 29th, 2022

It’s a signature of the human condition: two people can look at the same exact thing and have completely different reactions and descriptions as to what it is.  This is particularly true of works of art whose value is almost...

READ MORE >

TRUP: We’ll Take Your “Kuyashii” and Wish TRUP Shares “Sayonara”; TRUP Lowers Its Growth Objectives Amidst...

April 27th, 2022

Was it really only 5-months ago when TRUP shares surged to $150+ following the announcement that the company forged a partnership with the leading ecommerce platform for pet products, CHWY? ...

READ MORE >

TRUP: Shift in Guidance Looks to Be a Harbinger of Growth Deceleration

February 17th, 2022

Will TRUP’s 4Q21 earnings conference call be remembered as the event at which the company’s management team signaled to the investment community that enrollment and revenue growth were on the cusp of a major deceleration? In our view, we...

READ MORE >

TRUP: Short Sellers Get “CHWYed” Up, the Market Reaction Calculus in Business Terms, Like Aflac, Another Deal of...

December 8th, 2021

This conversation happened more in our heads over the past 24 hours than it did in reality….. Druckenmiller: “Why are you still short this TRUP?” PAA: “It’s a...

READ MORE >

TRUP: Problems, Problems, Problems….. And Then There’s New Jersey

July 29th, 2021

“Easy, compadre. I'm your friend out here, all right?... If you want to throw down, fine. I've got Jack Johnson and Tom O'Leary waiting for you…… Well, guess what? Now this is...

READ MORE >

TRUP: When Will the COVID-19 Tailwinds End for TRUP? Other Key Questions Heading into the Company’s 1Q21 Earnings...

April 20th, 2021

What changed? We posed the same question to start 2021 following a year in which TRUP shares rallied more than 230%, despite the company’s continued struggles to grow profitably.  TRUP...

READ MORE >

TRUP: What Changed? Certainly Not TRUP’s Profitability Prospects; Marketing IRR’s Could Collapse in 2021

February 11th, 2021

What changed? That is the one question that has been plaguing us (and many other short sellers) about TRUP for the past 12-months.  What elements of TRUP’s business improved over the past year to...

READ MORE >

Scroll to load more

Current Ideas

EXPI

SELL/SHORT

$4

HUSQ.B

SELL

$50

UFPI

SELL/SHORT

$45

TREX

SHORT

$18

PRDO

SELL/SHORT

$5

STRA

SELL/SHORT

$42

CWH

LONG

$75

OSTK

LONG

$128

CM

SELL/SHORT

$50

RY

SELL/SHORT

$50

ARC

LONG

$5.50

AYI

SHORT

$50

BIG

SHORT

$28

WWE

LONG

$65

XOXO

LONG

$37

RLGY

PAIR TRADE

$10

RDFN

PAIR TRADE

$30

BCO

LONG

$35

ING.PA

SHORT

$35

TRUP

SELL/SHORT

$10

CTC

SHORT

$101

ATGE

SHORT

$15

HCG.TO

SHORT

$0

RON.TO

SHORT

$9

ESI

SHORT

$0

BGG

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

TTC

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

Z

SHORT

$14.00

NA.TO

SHORT

$22

ZU

SHORT

$15

TRLA

SHORT

$20

MCRS

SHORT

$31

APOL

SHORT

$35

OPEN

SHORT

$30

KNL

PAIR - LONG KNL/SHORT MLHR

25%

CSGP

SHORT

$100

GCA

LONG

$8

IPSU

LONG

$20

MLHR

SHORT

$22

LOOP

PAIR - LONG CSGP/SHORT LOOP

40%

THQI

LONG

$35

WPO

SHORT

$275

COCO

SHORT

$0

HNI

SIG

RGR