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Closing Our Our SWHC Short Idea With a 10.6% Return

March 11th, 2010

This report was originally published on 10/28/09.We are closing out our short idea in Smith and Wesson (SWHC 4.74 ↑0.42%).  We are also removing the SWHC short position from our PAA Research SMid Cap portfolio.  Even though we think consensus estimates remain...

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The “Obama Effect” One Year Later – What Firearms Dealers Are Saying Now

March 10th, 2010

This report was originally published 9/30/09.There is little debate that President Obama’s most effective economic stimulus has been for the broader firearms industry.  As soon as it became clear in October of last year that Obama would...

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August NICS Background Check Data Shows First Month-to Month Sequential Improvment in a While, Key Questions Heading...

March 10th, 2010

This report was originally published on 9/8/09.The August data for the number of background checks conducted under the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) was released this...

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Sturm, Ruger Strong 2Q09 Results, but Orders are Falling and Channel Inventories Rising – Back to Normalcy in the...

March 10th, 2010

This report was originally published on 7/29/09.Sturm, Ruger& Company, Inc. reported 2Q09 results after the close.  You can view the resultshere.  The company reported revenues and EPS of $72.4...

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The June NICS Background Checks Are In – Another Sequential Month to Month Decline

March 9th, 2010

This report was originally published on 7/16/09.The June data for the number of background checks conducted under the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) was released this morning. Overall, the total number of...

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June Traffic Data Suggests A Further Slowdown in Firearm Sales

March 9th, 2010

This report was originally published on 7/14/09.As we have noted in the past, we are actively following website traffic to the leading online gun dealers to gain a better gauge of current and future demand for firearms. Outside of the monthly data from the...

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What To Do About Smith and Wesson (SWHC) Now

March 8th, 2010

This report was originally published on 6/19/09.SWHC shares have rallied dramatically today following the company’s positive pre-announcement after the close yesterday. As we highlighted in our original post on both SWHC and Sturm, Ruger (RGR), consensus estimates for...

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Another Decline in Traffic to Leading Online Gun Dealers, Query Data Suggest Gun Sales Will Continue To Slow

March 8th, 2010

This report was originally published on 6/08/09In our original post on Smith and Wesson and Sturm, Ruger, we argued that declining traffic to leading online gun dealers in April was a critical indicator that...

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More Evidence the “Obama Effect” On Gun Sales Has Peaked – NICS Background Checks Decline 16.5% M/M from April to...

March 8th, 2010

This report was originally published on 6/3/09.In our original post on Smith and Wesson and Sturm, Ruger, we argued that these two stocks were poised to see significant downside as the “Obama...

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The Smoking Gun? It Appears the “Obama Effect” on Firearm Sales Has Started to Wane

March 7th, 2010

This report was originally published on 5/14/09.There have been few, if any bright spots in the consumer discretionary space over the past 12-18 months.  The threat of job losses combined with an unprecedented shock to the net...

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Current Ideas

HCG.TO

SHORT

$0

AYI

SHORT

$129

RON.TO

SHORT

$9

BIG

SHORT

$28

ESI

SHORT

$0

DV

SHORT

$15

BGG

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

TTC

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

Z

SHORT

$14.00

NA.TO

SHORT

$22

ING.PA

SHORT

$35

ZU

SHORT

$15

TRLA

SHORT

$20

MCRS

SHORT

$31

APOL

SHORT

$35

OPEN

SHORT

$30

BCO

LONG

$35

WWE

LONG

$25

KNL

PAIR - LONG KNL/SHORT MLHR

25%

XOXO

LONG

$20

CSGP

SHORT

$100

GCA

LONG

$8

IPSU

LONG

$20

MLHR

SHORT

$22

ARC

LONG

$12.50

LOOP

PAIR - LONG CSGP/SHORT LOOP

40%

THQI

LONG

$35

WPO

SHORT

$275

COCO

SHORT

$0

HNI

SIG

RGR