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NA.TO/HCG.TO/RON.TO: The Canadian Housing Market - Dancing on the Edge of a Razor Blade, Time to Get Short – FULL...

March 13th, 2015

This report is a follow up to our note published 3/10/15 in which we introduced Home Capital Group (HCG.TO), National Bank of Canada (NA.TO), and Rona Inc. (RON.TO) as short ideas.“Get busy with...

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NA.TO/HCG.TO/RON.TO: The Canadian Housing Market - Dancing on the Edge of a Razor Blade, Time to Get Short

March 10th, 2015

“Get busy with the facts, No zodiacs or almanacs, No maniacs in polyester slacks, Just the facts…. The small gets big, It’s a rig…. You better run homeboy, A fact’s a fact… Roll the...

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Z: Zillow Provides a Glimpse of the Future, While Investing In It

May 3rd, 2012

Some investors might be perplexed by the strength in Zillow shares after hours.  Yes, the company did report strong 1Q12 results that handily beat estimates.  Yes, the operating metrics delivered in 1Q12 were fantastic and well above what most...

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700+ Real Estate Agents Can’t Be Wrong. The Housing Market Is On the Cusp of a Sustained Recovery. Getting Long Zillow

May 1st, 2012

This is a report about housing. This is also a report about a company that has the potential to transform the home purchase process in the US.  Every Spring for each of the past three years we have...

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A View From the Frontlines of Housing - Feedback From 500 Residential Real Estate Brokers

September 28th, 2010

A few months ago, we published the first in what will be a series of reports backed by our proprietary survey of residential real estate brokers across the country, "A View from the Frontlines of Housing".  At that time we argued...

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A View from the Frontlines of Housing

May 27th, 2010

We've stated it before and we'll say it again: we are firm believers in Edward Leamer's thesis that "Housing is the Business Cycle".  It continues to be the prism through which we view the economic cycle. It colors every investment idea we evaluate and how we position the PAA...

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PAA Research SMid Cap Portfolio Update – Closing out ZIPR Investment Idea with 77% Gain

March 12th, 2010

This report was originally published on 3/2/10.We wanted to provide you with an update on the performance of our SMid Cap portfolio, which we introduced on 9/3/09. As a reminder this is a “mock” portfolio with an initial...

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ZIPR Blows Away 4Q09 Revenue Estimates, Continued Market Share Gains Should Lead to Positive EBITDA and FCF in 2010

March 12th, 2010

This report was originally published on 1/6/10.ZipRealty Inc. announced preliminary revenue results for 4Q09.  You can read the full releasehere.  Overall, the company topped consensus revenue...

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What ZipRealty’s Results Tell Us About the State of Housing, ZIPR’s Path to Profitability

March 10th, 2010

This report was originally published 8/6/09.We are somewhat surprised that there aren’t more people following the results of ZipRealty on a regular basis.  We understand the stock trades almost on a “by appointment”...

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Housing is the Business Cycle, So Where are We Now?

March 9th, 2010

This report was originally published on 6/29/09.As we’ve mentioned in the past, we are firm believers in Edward Leamer’s thesis that “Housing is the Business Cycle“. It continues to shape the prism through which we view the economic cycle. The relative...

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ZipRealty’s Traffic Continues to Grow

March 7th, 2010

There are a number of third party providers of website traffic data. ComScore is probably the best known, but there are a few other established players including: Nielsen NetRatings, Compete. Alexa, Quantcast and others. We typically have used compete.com for the most part to...

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ZIPR Missed, but the Long Term Thesis Remains Intact

March 7th, 2010

This report was originally published on 5/6/09.ZIPR reported revenues and a loss per share of $21.7 million and ($0.37) vs. consensus of $24.1 million and ($0.19). The miss was driven by four factors: A very weak start to the quarter in January, which was offset by...

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Affordability Still Matters, VOLUMES in the Housing Market have Bottomed, In Search of a Forgotten MicroCap

March 7th, 2010

This report was originally published 5/5/09.We would like to borrow a phrase from Edward E. Leamer PhD., the esteemed Professor of Economics at UCLA: “Housing is the Business Cycle“. Professor Leamer’s...

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Current Ideas

AYI

SHORT

$129

RON.TO

SHORT

$9

BIG

SHORT

$28

ESI

SHORT

$0

DV

SHORT

$15

BGG

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

TTC

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

Z

SHORT

$14.00

NA.TO

SHORT

$22

HCG.TO

SHORT

$20

ING.PA

SHORT

$35

ZU

SHORT

$15

TRLA

SHORT

$20

MCRS

SHORT

$31

APOL

SHORT

$35

OPEN

SHORT

$30

BCO

LONG

$35

WWE

LONG

$25

KNL

PAIR - LONG KNL/SHORT MLHR

25%

XOXO

LONG

$20

CSGP

SHORT

$100

GCA

LONG

$8

IPSU

LONG

$20

MLHR

SHORT

$22

ARC

LONG

$12.50

LOOP

PAIR - LONG CSGP/SHORT LOOP

40%

THQI

LONG

$35

WPO

SHORT

$275

COCO

SHORT

$0

HNI

SIG

RGR