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AYI: Lighting Agent Survey - Pricing Pressure on LED Lighting Products Continues to Mount

December 22nd, 2016

We recently completed a survey of lighting agents across the country. The feedback from our survey confirms our view that: Revenue growth in the lighting industry has started to slow Pricing pressure on LED products...

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DV: DeVry Has a Massive Nursing Problem; Time to Short Excess Pricing (and Profits) Generated from RN-BSN Programs

December 16th, 2016

                “I've got depth of perception in my text y'all I get props at my mention 'cause I vex y'all So what'cha...

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BIG: Celebrating Mediocrity, While Investors Are Left to Ponder How Long Financial Engineering Can Prop Up EPS,...

December 5th, 2016

“It's just that I've never seen people celebrate mediocrity the way you do.” Jack Byrnes (Robert DeNiro). Meet the Fockers. Dir. Jay Roach. Universal Studios 2004. For...

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Canadian Housing: Losses on the Ground Are Real; When Will the Banks Start Taking Provisions On Their Credit Exposure...

November 23rd, 2016

“As cooler weather starts driving up heating costs, Calgary distress centres are finding more people who once earned steady incomes are now struggling to pay their bills and seeking relief with...

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Z/ZG: Tick, Tick, Tick…. Time Is Running Out on the Growth of the Premier Agent Advertising Program as the Top of the...

November 2nd, 2016

Zillow management did it again. The company guided down for the forward quarter and “talked down” margin expectations for the out year. This has become a tried and true practice for...

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PAA Research's 2016 Canadian Mortgage Broker Survey: A New Era in the Canadian Housing Market

November 2nd, 2016

We recently conducted a survey of 148 mortgage brokers located across Canada. The key findings from our survey include: Home price weaknes is becoming more broad based The underlying bid for housing remains...

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CSGP: Who’s Going to Give Them Credit for 2018 When Everything’s Slowing?

October 27th, 2016

“….but I do want to remind everybody that CoStar has shown again and again and again that we are able to reduce costs after an investment initiative. We are very good at that and we need credit for that.” Andy...

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AYI: Now the Shot Clock on Growth Is Officially Ticking, Just Ask the Dept. of Energy

October 6th, 2016

Yes, it’s true that AYI does not provide earnings guidance for investors, but the manner in which the company handled its latest earnings release has to be viewed as troubling.  AYI missed by a wide margin on both the top...

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Canadian Housing: The Wind of Change

October 4th, 2016

Will Monday, October 3, 2016 be remembered as the day that the housing market in Ontario peaked?  Maybe.  In a move that appears to have shaken the Canadian housing market to its core (or at least rattled a few branches), Minister of Finance, Bill Morneau announced a...

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ESI: Closing Out ESI Short Idea with a 100% Gain; Let the Record Show that the Blame for ESI’s Demise Lies with...

September 23rd, 2016

“How did you go bankrupt? Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly” Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises ITT Educational Services ceased to exist as of September 16th.  The...

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BIG: Financial Engineering Has Run Its Course and “Jennifer” Is Nowhere to Be Found; Time to Get Short

August 25th, 2016

“Financial engineering is the use of mathematical techniques to solve financial problems. Financial engineering uses tools and knowledge from the fields of computer science, statistics, economics and applied...

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DV: Meet the New Boss; Same as the Old Boss? Either Way the Central Elements of Our Short Thesis Continue to Come to...

August 19th, 2016

Over the years, there are few things that we have looked forward to less than listening to DV earnings conference calls.  For the most part, the conference calls and presentations during the...

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Z/ZG: Leads Don’t Grow to the Sky and Other Troublesome Comments from Management

August 5th, 2016

Believe it or not, there was a time even after we adopted a bearish stance on Zillow’s stock that we were allowed to ask questions on the company’s earnings conference calls.  Unfortunately we asked too many difficult...

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HCG.TO: Can You See It Now? HCG Is a Shrinking Lender with Declining Margins, Enormous Credit Risk, and Potential...

July 28th, 2016

To anyone (ourselves included) that has followed the publicly available financial data on Home Trust from OSFI over the past few months, it is not a surprise that the company once again missed...

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HCG.TO: In the Biggest Housing Bull Market in the History of Canada, HCG Still Can’t Grow Their Loan Book –...

July 20th, 2016

HCG is desperate. How do we know this? Well certainly in this case actions speak louder than words.  Consider the following steps the company has taken over the past 6-12 months to shore up...

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Z/ZG: Myth vs. Reality

July 18th, 2016

Over the past month, we surveyd approximately 470 real estate agents.  The vast majority of the agents we surveyed have at least 10-years experience, generate at least 15 transaction sides annually, and work for one of the REAL Trends 500 brokerage firms.  Additionally, a significant...

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Current Ideas

EXPI

SELL/SHORT

$4

HUSQ.B

SELL

$50

UFPI

SELL/SHORT

$45

TREX

SHORT

$18

PRDO

SELL/SHORT

$5

STRA

SELL/SHORT

$42

CWH

LONG

$75

OSTK

LONG

$128

CM

SELL/SHORT

$50

RY

SELL/SHORT

$50

ARC

LONG

$5.50

AYI

SHORT

$50

BIG

SHORT

$28

WWE

LONG

$65

XOXO

LONG

$37

RLGY

PAIR TRADE

$10

RDFN

PAIR TRADE

$30

BCO

LONG

$35

ING.PA

SHORT

$35

TRUP

SELL/SHORT

$10

CTC

SHORT

$101

ATGE

SHORT

$15

HCG.TO

SHORT

$0

RON.TO

SHORT

$9

ESI

SHORT

$0

BGG

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

TTC

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

Z

SHORT

$14.00

NA.TO

SHORT

$22

ZU

SHORT

$15

TRLA

SHORT

$20

MCRS

SHORT

$31

APOL

SHORT

$35

OPEN

SHORT

$30

KNL

PAIR - LONG KNL/SHORT MLHR

25%

CSGP

SHORT

$100

GCA

LONG

$8

IPSU

LONG

$20

MLHR

SHORT

$22

LOOP

PAIR - LONG CSGP/SHORT LOOP

40%

THQI

LONG

$35

WPO

SHORT

$275

COCO

SHORT

$0

HNI

SIG

RGR