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DV: Drowning in a Sea of Useless Anecdotes While Critical Operating Issues Remain Unresolved, Lowering Target to $20

August 19th, 2015

Recently in one of our research notes about Zillow we wrote the following:“Investors love anecdotes about companies; they represent the “broth” in the mosaic theory “soup” we create on any...

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ESI: Was That the Final Goodbye? We’ve Reached the Point of No Return – ESI Might Not Survive Beyond the Next 6-9...

July 30th, 2015

Following a conference call that sounded 50% like a deposition and 50% like an advertisement (it was 100% strange), we can’t help but wonder if this could be the last time we might here from ESI...

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ESI: A Grand Exercise in Greater Fool Theory as the March to Zero Continues

June 2nd, 2015

It’s as if the SEC never filed suit against ESI, the CEO, and the CFO….The 100%+ rally in shares of ESI over the past three trading days has been truly something to behold.  The stock has been acting like the typical villain in a horror...

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ESI: The ZERO Scenario Is Finally Here and the For-Profit Education Space Might Never Be the Same

May 12th, 2015

“You shouldn’t talk to that guy, he’s a liar”You might be thinking that’s a quote from someone talking about Kevin Modany, but in fact this is a quote FROM Kevin Modany which was said to a reporter when he was...

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DV: APOL by Another Name? Lowering Target to $25

April 23rd, 2015

We’re thinking of a for-profit education company that operates a large national university with a strong presence in nursing, a big online platform, and a heavy mix of bachelor’s degree students that also owns a group of international universities.  Can you guess...

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COCO: Closing Out COCO Short Idea with 99.9% Gain, 176.1% Alpha Generation

February 17th, 2015

COCO shares were delisted from the NASDAQ today.  We are closing out our COCO short idea with a 99.9% ABSOLUTE gain and 176.1% alpha generation.  It is our goal to identify short ideas that have 100% absolute return potential.  Obviously,...

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DV: In the Real World, It Sure Looks Like DV’s Operational Challenges Are Just Getting Started, Six Reasons to Stay...

February 6th, 2015

We were very eager to hear DV management’s commentary on the 2Q15 earnings call following a quarter in which almost every single enrollment metric and financial detail seemed to validate our short...

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ESI: The COCO Student Loan Forgiveness Precedent Is Not a Good One for ESI

February 3rd, 2015

ESI shares traded up 20%+ today in reaction to the completion of COCO's asset sale to ECMC and the announcement that loan forgiveness on COCO's Genesis loan program will be 40% of principal.  There are some that want to interpret the 40%...

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For-Profit EDU: A Few Thoughts on Obama’s Free Community College Initiative

January 9th, 2015

Sorry we didn't pass along some feedback sooner, but we wanted to share a few key data points and thoughts on Obama's proposal to make community college free for students that maintain a 2.5 GPA.  The program is largely modeled on one...

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ESI: The Lender of Last Resort Comes a Knockin’; The Stock RALLIES 30%+ Even As Bankruptcy Risk Increases, Follow the...

December 5th, 2014

“On November 17, 2014, we obtained a commitment from Cerberus Business Finance, LLC to provide us with a new $100 million senior secured term loan facility”-          ESI 2Q14 10-Q...

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DV: “History Doesn’t Repeat Itself, but It Often Rhymes”; DV’s Golden Goose Is About to Get Squeezed, Time to...

November 20th, 2014

This oft quoted aphorism (incorrectly attributed to Twain) represents one of the greatest truisms for any seasoned investor: the ability to identify trends and map them to historical patterns is a...

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ESI: A Temporary Reprieve from, but Likely Not a Full Resolution of the Company’s Liquidity Woes

October 17th, 2014

There’s a well-known adage in this business that the “highs are never as high as the lows are low”.  No truer statement could be made about our feelings on our short call on ESI today even with ESI shares down 72%...

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ESI: All That Matters Are Starts and Cash, Both of Which Appear to Be In Increasingly Short Supply; ESI Needs to Raise...

October 16th, 2014

From our perspective, the long awaited filing of ESI’s 2013 10-K was as notable for what was NOT in the document as for what was.  After all, at this stage the only two data points that truly...

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ESI: A Liquidity Crisis Has Arrived (Finally), As Regulatory and Litigation Tail Risk Looms Large, Taking Price Target...

September 19th, 2014

For several years now we have argued that ESI needed to raise capital to position the company to meet its contingent liabilities related to guarantee payments on private student loan portfolios and...

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ESI: It Finally Has Come to This – Who Is the Lender of Last Resort? Lowering Price Target to $5

August 3rd, 2014

“In the process of taking his jacket off, the Artiste [Harry Zale] thrust his thick chest forward. Running down it were a pair of suspenders. They were broad and black, these suspenders, and even at the other end of...

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For-Profit EDU: The Career College Crisis of Summer 2014; Checks Suggest Continued Weakness in Fundamentals – Where...

July 28th, 2014

“The cheaters usually get caught--just never soon enough. Plenty more heads will roll.” Anonymous executive in the for-profit education space Given our longstanding bearish stance on...

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ESI: In a Shock to No One PEAKS Is Finally Being Consolidated, Now ESI Attempts to Thread the Needle on Financial...

June 25th, 2014

In a surprise to no one at this point, ESI disclosed in an 8-K filing yesterday that the company’s Audit Committee in concert with the SEC Office of the Chief Accountant determined that the...

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ESI: What Is the Value of a Higher Education Company with Private Student Loan Default Rates in Excess of 75%?

May 22nd, 2014

Rather than give you our usual initial diatribe, we’re going to present you with some quotes from ESI management over the past few years...

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ESI: College Portfolio Buyer Agrees to Purchase a Real Estate Portfolio From ESI, Wait Who?

May 14th, 2014

After the close today, ESI announced that the company has reached an agreement with College Portfolio Buyer LLC for a sale leaseback transaction.  College Portfolio Buyer will purchase 24 ITT Tech locations for approximately...

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ESI: Desperate Times Call for Desperate Measures… ESI Attempts to Access the Only Source of Incremental Capital It...

April 11th, 2014

For more than a year now, we have been arguing that ESI might need to raise capital to shore up its liquidity position in light of the company’s deteriorating operating fundamentals and...

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ESI: PEAKS Losses Inform Investors as Much about the Present as the Past; Lowering Estimates Due to Reduced Starts...

March 25th, 2014

It what has become standard practice for ESI, the company filed an 8-K last Friday after the market close which delivered more unfavorable news.   If bulls are to be believed the latest development...

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COCO: The Reasons Why We Think COCO Could Have a Significant Liquidity Crisis over the Next 6-12 Months

February 5th, 2014

In many respects, we are stunned that COCO shares did not trade down more today.  Let’s consider what “new” information we learned as a result of the company’s earnings release: 1) starts trends are...

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ESI: In a Web of Partial Truths, Mis-statements, and False Promises, Focus on These Realities

January 30th, 2014

Really, who would trust this management team?  The current management team of ESI has been wrong on almost every front over the past 3-4 years whether it be: student start prospects, market clearing tuition levels, or actual...

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For-Profit EDU: The Hope for Hope Trade Could Be Coming To an End as Winter Term Enrollment Results Bring a Cold Dose...

January 29th, 2014

The for-profit postsecondary education sector has been a “contrarian’s delight” for the better part of 12-months.  Initially what started as a long trade predicated on overly bearish sentiment...

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ESI: The PEAKS Problem – It’s Bigger than You Think

November 14th, 2013

“On the cost reduction efforts….As far as opportunities going forward there aren't a ton of opportunities right now, so we're not throwing another target out there, we're not throwing another bogey out there right now.” 10/24/13 Kevin Modany,...

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COCO: What Will Happen First? Evaluating Key Catalysts as the Company’s Options Appear More and More Limited

November 5th, 2013

Tick, tick, tick…..  From where we sit, it certainly feels like the walls are closing in on COCO as the company’s weak enrollment results, shrinking EBITDA generation, tenuous liquidity position, and...

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ESI: Despite the Stock Action, All Evidence Suggests the Downward Spiral in Earnings Power Could Continue

October 24th, 2013

Only in this environment might some people view an 10% move in a stock as a “relief”, but that is certainly how we feel today with ESI. That’s not to say our conviction in our short thesis has wavered in any...

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For-Profit EDU: The Stocks Have Been Telling Us For the Past 6-Months That the Fall Term Enrollment Intake Would...

October 22nd, 2013

“It’s real the pain you feel, you trust, you must confess Is someone getting the best, the best, the best of you?”-          Foo FightersOften wrong, never in doubt…. If we could use...

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COCO: Hanging on By a Thread While the Challenges Continue to Mount

August 29th, 2013

We watched the stock price action in COCO over the past two weeks with considerable befuddlement and consternation. After all, the stock rallied more than 25% following the announcement that the Department of Education had preliminarily sided with the...

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ESI: Robbing Peter to Pay Paul in a Race to the Bottom

July 26th, 2013

In a vacuum, there might be legitimate cause for excitement.  After 11 consecutive quarters during which ESI reported a YOY decline in new student starts the company was finally able to identify an elixir to its enrollment woes – aggressive tuition discounting...

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EXPI

SELL/SHORT

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HUSQ.B

SELL

$50

UFPI

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TREX

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PRDO

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STRA

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CWH

LONG

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OSTK

LONG

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CM

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RY

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ARC

LONG

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AYI

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BIG

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WWE

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XOXO

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RLGY

PAIR TRADE

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RDFN

PAIR TRADE

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BCO

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ING.PA

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TRUP

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CTC

SHORT

$101

ATGE

SHORT

$15

HCG.TO

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RON.TO

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ESI

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BGG

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

TTC

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

Z

SHORT

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NA.TO

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ZU

SHORT

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TRLA

SHORT

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MCRS

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APOL

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OPEN

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KNL

PAIR - LONG KNL/SHORT MLHR

25%

CSGP

SHORT

$100

GCA

LONG

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IPSU

LONG

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MLHR

SHORT

$22

LOOP

PAIR - LONG CSGP/SHORT LOOP

40%

THQI

LONG

$35

WPO

SHORT

$275

COCO

SHORT

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HNI

SIG

RGR