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OPEN: As Opentable Loses Market Share in North America the Potential for a Minneapolis 2.0 Scenario Should Concern...

December 20th, 2013

As we approach year end it seems like a natural process for most investors to evaluate what they got right and what they were wrong about over the past 12-months.  We are no different.  While...

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OPEN: A One Legged Growth Stool Increasingly Vulnerable to Competitive Threats

November 6th, 2013

North American diners seated per restaurant is for OPEN shareholders “the one metric to rule them all” as far as stock price action is concerned.  In 2012 when diners seated per restaurant in North America slowed, OPEN shares struggled...

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TRLA: Nowhere to Go But Down from Here As Traffic Growth Appears Poised to Slow and “True TAM” Penetration Becomes...

October 30th, 2013

It all sounds so intoxicating doesn’t it? To company management (and presumably bulls on the stock) Trulia is a leading rapidly growing mobile based residential real estate search platform...

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TRLA: A Storm Is Brewing Between Brokers and MLS’s, Assessing the Potential Collateral Damage for TRLA and Z

October 10th, 2013

“There’s something brewing here that really makes me think that the people in this room need to rethink their role.  Some of you[MLS representatives]  may be in denial. You don’t know that there’s a...

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MCRS: As MCRS Continues to Lose Share, a Sequence of Short Term Gains Could Create Longer Term Pain

September 27th, 2013

The purpose of this report is to address several critical questions surrounding MCRS and the company’s future growth prospects. In general, we would argue that most of these queries aren’t part of the general...

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MCRS: After a Year of Zero Growth, Are Shareholders Any Better Off Than They Were 12-Months Ago? Analyzing the Marriott...

August 22nd, 2013

“Hope is a dangerous thing.  Hope can drive a man insane.”Morgan Freeman (Red), Shawshank RedemptionWe are not alone in this.  There’s no shortage of short sellers who lament the action in...

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OPEN: Hope Increasingly Creeping Into the Bull Case

August 1st, 2013

In another market environment things might be different.  Marking the fifth time in the past three years, OPEN missed consensus revenue expectations for 2Q13.  On top of that, the company lowered guidance for FY13 substantially.  Panic? Not exactly.  Had the...

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OPEN: Acquisition of Rezbook - OPEN Dominance or More IACI Incompetence? Probably a Bit of Both, Margin Impact Could be...

August 1st, 2013

In what can only be described as a surprise to the marketplace, OPEN announced that it had reached an agreement to acquire IACI’s Rezbook. As part of the deal Urbanspoon, a leading mobile...

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TRLA: 2Q13 Had More Signposts of Our Short Thesis Then You Might Think, Desktop User Growth is Collapsing – Canary in...

August 1st, 2013

“There’s a party going on right here, a celebration to last through the years….”Kool & the GangIn retrospect it all seems so simple doesn’t it? Let’s play a short game of check this...

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OPEN: YELP’s Acquisition of SeatMe Could Herald the Start of a New Era in the North American ERB Space

July 19th, 2013

And so it begins….Two and a half years ago we introduced OPEN as a short idea predicated on four principal tenets: At its core, OPEN provides a “solution without a problem”.  OPEN’s ERB technology and...

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TRLA: All Listings Aggregators Are Not Created Equal, Time to Get Short

June 7th, 2013

It seems to happen all of the time in growth industries, particularly among small and mid-cap companies.  A leader in said growth industry goes public, creates a successful track record, which engenders investor enthusiasm about the company and...

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MCRS and OPEN: Thoughts From the NRA Show 2013 – Tablet POS Systems Continue to Come of Age as Competitive Headwinds...

May 21st, 2013

Yesterday we had the opportunity to tour the floor at the National Restaurant Association’s 2013 annual conference.  We wanted to pass along some key observations from our time in the exhibit...

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Z: With Few Catalysts on the Horizon, We’re Closing Out Our Long Z Idea With a 72% Gain

May 7th, 2013

Almost a year to the day from when we first introduced Z as a long idea, we’re closing it out with a 72% gain.  It’s been a wild ride to say the least.  Was it really only 6-months ago when the stock ticked $23.00 following...

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OPEN: As Sales Force Productivity Collapses a Few Critical Questions to Ponder; 10-Q Highlights and Observations

May 7th, 2013

Seriously, who wouldn’t love this business?  In 4Q12, OPEN’s growth in diners seated per restaurant collapsed, but the company had healthy net additions in restaurant clients, stability in NA cover...

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OPEN: Four Reasons Why OPEN’s Profitability Prospects in Europe Remain Grim

May 2nd, 2013

A few weeks ago we published a lengthy report which outlined some of the more troubling competitive developments for OPEN in North America. We maintain our view that the company is on the cusp of a major deceleration in many of its key...

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MCRS: As the Company Runs out of “Arrows in the Quiver”, Bulls Are Left to Wonder What Catalysts Remain as Secular...

April 25th, 2013

When we initially introduced MCRS as a short idea roughly 8-months ago, here were the principal tenets of our thesis: The elimination of the hardware “tether” could result in rapid share gains...

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OPEN: As Competitive Undercurrents Take Hold in North America When Will Investors Start to Take Notice?

April 12th, 2013

It’s true, OPEN shares are up 55.6% over the past 12-months with the stock witnessing gains of nearly 22% in the past 3-months alone.  The short interest, which once represented close to 50% of the float has now...

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Z: 20% of the Traffic (and growing) and Less Than 1% of the Spend; Zillow’s TAM Story Gets Better and Better

February 14th, 2013

Didn’t we go through the same experience last quarter?  Zillow beat revenue and EPS for 4Q12, operating metrics were stellar, and management guided lower in large part due to increased expectations for...

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OPEN: Growth Is Grinding To a Halt…. And TopTable Isn’t Going to Save the Day

February 8th, 2013

Well at least they didn’t miss consensus revenue estimates again….  Seriously though, do you remember the “good old days” when supposed growth companies that reported a massive deceleration in operating metrics, low quality...

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MCRS: Not Much to See Here…. For Now

January 25th, 2013

MCRS reported a quarter that was as uneventful as it was uninspiring. Ultimately there were operating metrics that improved somewhat and those that could be construed as confirmation of our short thesis.  Below we discuss the key positives and negatives from the quarter.

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Proprietary Restaurant Checks Suggest Challenges Could Mount for OPEN and MCRS in 2013; Other Key Observations

January 22nd, 2013

Over the past month, PAA Research conducted a survey of approximately 80-85 restaurant operators a significant percentage of which are clients of OPEN and MCRS. The general purpose of the survey was to gain...

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MCRS: Thoughts from the National Retail Federation “Big Show”

January 15th, 2013

Yesterday we had the opportunity to tour the floor at the National Retail Federation’s “Big Show 2013”.  We wanted to pass along some key observations from our time in the exhibit hall.  As you might imagine given our outstanding short call on...

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MCRS: How MCRS Really Makes Money and Why It Should Alarm Investors in the New Age of mPOS and iOS POS Solutions

December 12th, 2012

It’s been nearly four months since we first introduced MCRS as a short idea.  Since that time the stock has declined (-13%) compared to a 1% gain for the S&P 500 over the same period.  As so often is...

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XOXO: After Another Quarter of EPS Upside and Strong FCF Generation, We Have to Ask: Where is the Love (from Investors)?

November 9th, 2012

Heading into XOXO’s 3Q12 earnings release we thought we knew the following: The Knot and the Bump franchises remained incredibly strong from a consumer engagement perspective Investors had...

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Z: Sometimes It’s Important to Remember These Guys are “Empire Builders”…

November 6th, 2012

If you told us heading into the earnings print that Zillow would have added more than 4,000 premier agent subscribers in the third quarter, we almost certainly would have expected Zillow shares to trade higher.  Obviously that has not...

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OPEN: After Another Ho-Hum Quarter, the Six Lingering Questions We’re Thinking About

November 2nd, 2012

Heading into the company’s 3Q12 earnings release, OPEN shares had rallied 31.8% over the past 3-months compared to a meager 3.4% gain for the Nasdaq.  Clearly investor enthusiasm for OPEN shares continued to increase over the past...

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MCRS: The Burden of Proof Has Shifted

October 24th, 2012

With one simple statement, the management of Urban Outfitters changed the entire perception surrounding the sustainability of incumbent providers of PC based POS software solutions to restaurants and retailers.  On September 27th at the Urban Outfitters investor day, the...

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Z: A Closer Look at the Rental Property Marketplace – Raising Estimates and Price Objective to $50

October 22nd, 2012

In the housing depression over the past five years, there has been one segment of the marketplace that has performed quite well – rentals. Historically, the rental property market has been largely comprised of...

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MCRS: “Square”ly in the Scope of the Mobile Payments and iOS Revolutions, Time to Get Short

August 23rd, 2012

“I just charge additional license fees for these iPad implementations, so it actually drives business”Peter Rodgers, EVP Investor Relations and Business Development MICROS Systems, Inc.That’s it, nothing to see here....

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Z: All About the Metrics

August 8th, 2012

Zillow shares traded off sharply after hours yesterday following earnings results that were good, but perhaps not strong enough relative to “whisper numbers”.  Additionally, the company filed a shelf offering which included the option for significant stock holders to sell as much as 3.6MM...

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