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2012 Performance Update: Do Our Investment Ideas Generate Alpha? Other Ways We Measure our Performance

December 31st, 2012

First and foremost we wanted to wish everyone a happy, healthy, and prosperous new year and thank you for your continued interest in our research.  While there was plenty to be pleased about from a performance...

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MCRS: Analyst Day Fails to Address Our Concerns

December 13th, 2012

Coming into MCRS’s first “Investor Day” in over 13 years, we thought the burden of proof very much was on management to articulate why the proliferation of mobile POS solutions, mobile ordering, and cloud based iOS systems would not negatively impact the company’s...

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MCRS: How MCRS Really Makes Money and Why It Should Alarm Investors in the New Age of mPOS and iOS POS Solutions

December 12th, 2012

It’s been nearly four months since we first introduced MCRS as a short idea.  Since that time the stock has declined (-13%) compared to a 1% gain for the S&P 500 over the same period.  As so often is...

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WWE: Evaluating Positive Developments from the “Core” and Potential Network Economics

November 15th, 2012

It seems like only 5-6 months ago we were lamenting a similar dynamic surrounding WWE shares.  Here we are again, with WWE shares plumbing decade lows even though there are ample signs that the company’s core product continues...

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XOXO: After Another Quarter of EPS Upside and Strong FCF Generation, We Have to Ask: Where is the Love (from Investors)?

November 9th, 2012

Heading into XOXO’s 3Q12 earnings release we thought we knew the following: The Knot and the Bump franchises remained incredibly strong from a consumer engagement perspective Investors had...

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THQI: They Just Couldn’t Thread the Needle

November 6th, 2012

At no point over the past 3-years have we felt that we were in denial about the issues that THQI faced in trying to turn the company’s earnings prospects around.  We were intimately aware of the company’s disproportionate exposures to the very segments of the video game...

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Z: Sometimes It’s Important to Remember These Guys are “Empire Builders”…

November 6th, 2012

If you told us heading into the earnings print that Zillow would have added more than 4,000 premier agent subscribers in the third quarter, we almost certainly would have expected Zillow shares to trade higher.  Obviously that has not...

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OPEN: After Another Ho-Hum Quarter, the Six Lingering Questions We’re Thinking About

November 2nd, 2012

Heading into the company’s 3Q12 earnings release, OPEN shares had rallied 31.8% over the past 3-months compared to a meager 3.4% gain for the Nasdaq.  Clearly investor enthusiasm for OPEN shares continued to increase over the past...

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OPEN: Expecting 3Q12 Results to Add Further Credence to Our Maturation/Competition Thesis

November 1st, 2012

We had to laugh.  Approximately two weeks ago, rumors started to surface that YHOO under the stewardship of Marissa Mayer, might consider an acquisition of OPEN.  Outside of combining one high margin, mature business facing...

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COCO: The Games Continue…. The Three Most Important Questions for COCO Stakeholders Now

October 31st, 2012

In some respects, given all that has happened over the past 2-3 years in the for-profit postsecondary education space it’s hard to imagine that COCO is still hanging around.  After all, in an era when brand, price, and return...

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MCRS: Growth…… Is…… Slowing

October 26th, 2012

It’s hard to put our finger on it as to what element of MCRS’s 1Q13 earnings results added further validation to our short thesis, but there are more than a few signs there.  In our view, there were four or five items in the company’s 1Q13 results that should be viewed as...

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ESI: After The Worst Fall Term Enrollment Intake in ESI’s History, It’s Clear the Emperor Has No Clothes, Taking...

October 25th, 2012

Losing Altitude and Gaining Speed…..At the simplest level, here are the five things that you need to know about ESI following the company’s 3Q12 earnings release and fall term enrollment...

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MCRS: The Burden of Proof Has Shifted

October 24th, 2012

With one simple statement, the management of Urban Outfitters changed the entire perception surrounding the sustainability of incumbent providers of PC based POS software solutions to restaurants and retailers.  On September 27th at the Urban Outfitters investor day, the...

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Z: A Closer Look at the Rental Property Marketplace – Raising Estimates and Price Objective to $50

October 22nd, 2012

In the housing depression over the past five years, there has been one segment of the marketplace that has performed quite well – rentals. Historically, the rental property market has been largely comprised of...

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BGG/TTC: Housing, Operating Efficiency, and FCF Improvements Indicate BGG Might Finally Flex Its Earnings Muscles

October 18th, 2012

The Spring/Summer 2012 selling season will not be remembered fondly by participants in the outdoor power equipment marketplace.  Severe drought through much of the US and ongoing economic in weakness led...

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For-Profit EDU: Checks with Privately Held Institutions Suggest We’re On the Cusp of Yet Another Round of Meaningful...

October 15th, 2012

On Tuesday, October 16th APOL will kick-start the earnings season in the for-profit postsecondary education sector.  Investor expectations for the company’s results, particularly surrounding new...

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Current Ideas

EXPI

SELL/SHORT

$4

HUSQ.B

SELL

$50

UFPI

SELL/SHORT

$45

TREX

SHORT

$18

PRDO

SELL/SHORT

$5

STRA

SELL/SHORT

$42

CWH

LONG

$75

OSTK

LONG

$128

CM

SELL/SHORT

$50

RY

SELL/SHORT

$50

ARC

LONG

$5.50

AYI

SHORT

$50

BIG

SHORT

$28

WWE

LONG

$65

XOXO

LONG

$37

RLGY

PAIR TRADE

$10

RDFN

PAIR TRADE

$30

BCO

LONG

$35

ING.PA

SHORT

$35

TRUP

SELL/SHORT

$10

CTC

SHORT

$101

ATGE

SHORT

$15

HCG.TO

SHORT

$0

RON.TO

SHORT

$9

ESI

SHORT

$0

BGG

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

TTC

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

Z

SHORT

$14.00

NA.TO

SHORT

$22

ZU

SHORT

$15

TRLA

SHORT

$20

MCRS

SHORT

$31

APOL

SHORT

$35

OPEN

SHORT

$30

KNL

PAIR - LONG KNL/SHORT MLHR

25%

CSGP

SHORT

$100

GCA

LONG

$8

IPSU

LONG

$20

MLHR

SHORT

$22

LOOP

PAIR - LONG CSGP/SHORT LOOP

40%

THQI

LONG

$35

WPO

SHORT

$275

COCO

SHORT

$0

HNI

SIG

RGR