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ARP: Quick Thoughts on ARP's Earnings Results, Our Revised Estimates, ARP's Secular Growth Strategy Starts to Emerge

August 4th, 2010

Obviously this is an earnings call we did not get right. In our preview of the quarter, we argued that ARP was poised to deliver revenue and earnings upside for the second quarter based in large part on...

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BCO: Some Modest Operating Momentum Starting to Emerge, Revising Estimates

July 29th, 2010

BCO reported 2Q10 results this morning. You can read the full earnings release here. Overall, the company delivered both topline and bottomline outperformance for the first time in many quarters. Although management tempered its full year...

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Finally a Bottom in the Reprographics Industry? Channel Checks Suggest So, ARP Positioned for a Solid Q2 Beat

July 28th, 2010

In April, we argued that the reprographics industry was showing signs of imminent revenue stabilization, despite what continued to be weakness in the macro-economic data related to non-residential construction...

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GCA's Loss of Its Harrah's Contract Throws Stock Into a "Doubt Spiral" - Four Reasons Why We Think the Stock Can Trade...

July 22nd, 2010

GCA shares sold off an astonishing 44.4% yesterday on massive volume (19.2MM shares) following the announcement that the company had received notice from Harrah's that the casino operator would not...

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Just When We Thought BCO's Days of "Death by 1000 Cuts" Were Over... Still the Results Were Not as Bad as the Headline...

April 29th, 2010

BCO reported 1Q10 results this morning.  You can read the full release here.  Overall we would characterize the results as disappointing in light of the improvement in the global economy over the...

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From Headwinds to Tailwinds - 2010 Should Bring Solid Earnings Growth and FCF Generation for BCO

April 27th, 2010

We introduced BCO as a long idea approximately 9-months ago, you can read our original report here.  It has not been our best call. The stock has effectively gone no where while equity markets have ripped.  On Thursday,...

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CSGP: Noisy Quarter Shouldn't Overshadow Acceleration in Core Business, Traction for Showcase.com

April 20th, 2010

Approximately two months ago we introduced a pair trade idea to go long CSGP against a short position in LOOP.  You can read our original report here.  Thus far the trade has not delivered the type of return we...

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Reprographics Industry Slowly Stabilizing, ARP On Track for 2010 FCF of $60MM, More Insights on BIM's Impact

April 8th, 2010

We recently conducted a survey of 30-35 independent reprographers to gain a better understanding of industry-wide trends during 1Q10, their outlook for 2Q10 and the rest of 2010, and how BIM has impacted the...

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Conversations with ARP Management: Answering the BIM Question

March 25th, 2010

We recently had the opportunity to speak with senior management of ARP.  Although we discussed a number of issues that will impact ARP shares in the near-term, our primary focus was on the strategic direction of the company in light of the increased usage...

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GCA 4Q09: Block, Tackle and Generate Cash

March 12th, 2010

This report was originally published on 2/22/10.We introduced GCA (8.05 ↓0.86%) as a long idea approximately 4-months ago, since that time shares have appreciated more than 20%.  GCA will report its 4Q09 earnings after the market closes on Tuesday, February 23rd....

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When the Castle Is Under Siege It Helps To Have a Wide Moat: Long CSGP/Short LOOP

March 12th, 2010

This report was originally published on 2/11/10.A few years ago, Warren Buffet stated to Fortune magazine:“The key to investing is not assessing how much an industry is going to affect society, or how much it will grow, but rather...

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BCO Happily Says Goodbye to 2009; 2010 Should Be Back to Basics – Steady Organic Growth and Solid FCF Generation

March 12th, 2010

This report was originally published on 2/3/10.Normally when a non-financial services company issues an earnings release that is more than 25 pages, it usually is cause for significant concern.  However...

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ARP Raises Guidance for 4Q09 Revenues, EPS – Consensus Estimates Appear Too Low for 2010

March 12th, 2010

This report was originally published on 1/27/10.After the close today, ARP (7.65 ↓1.80%) issued a press release indicating that the company now expects to beat its prior revenue and EPS guidance for 4Q09.  You can read the...

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Feedback from Independent Reprographers Suggests the Potential for ARP to Beat Estimates is High, AIA Billings Index...

March 12th, 2010

This report was originally published on 1/20/10.We introduced ARP (7.64 ↓1.93%)as an investment idea approximately 9-months ago. At that time we thought the stock had considerable upside based in...

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BCO’s “Danza Con El Diablo” Continues – Venezuela Remains an Overhang

March 11th, 2010

This report was originally published on 12/21/09.After the close today, BCO (27.21 ↑0.55%) announced its intention to repatriate cash held in Venezuela at the “parallel rate” opposed to the “official rate”, which the company has...

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Canon’s Takeover Bid for Oce N.V. Validates Value of ARP Shares

March 11th, 2010

This report was originally published on 11/16/09.CanonInc. today announced its intention to launch a takeover bid for Oce N.V., a leading manufacturer of digital printing systems and document management service provider.  Canon (CAJ 44.5...

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Global Cash Access Holdings, Inc. (GCA): A Cheap Way to Play a Gaming Recovery

March 11th, 2010

This report was originally published on 11/4/2009.Similar to other consumer oriented sectors, there are growing signs that a trough in activity in the gaming sector has been reached or is rapidly approaching.  Let’s look at a few recent...

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BCO: 3Q09 Operational Beat Clouded by One-Time Gains and Higher Tax Rate

March 11th, 2010

This report was originally published on 10/29/09.The Brink’s Company (BCO 27.09 ↑0.11%) reported 3Q09 result this morning.  You c an read the full release here.  There were a number of “puts and takes” in the quarter that have clouded...

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BCO: A Name for the Contrarian Value Crowd – Increased Diamond Transaction Volume, Currency, Should Boost 3Q09 Results

March 11th, 2010

This report was originally published on 10/26/09.We introduced the Brink’s Company (BCO 27.05 ↓0.04%) as what we thought would be a compelling long idea a few months ago based on the...

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ARP’s Revenue “Air-Pocket”, FCF Is Still Impressive, The Outlook from Reprographers

March 10th, 2010

This report was originally published 10/6/09.ARP shares are off sharply today in response to a press release in which the company announced it was lowering guidance for the year and had recently completed an amendment to its...

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The Forensic Accountants Were Defrauded, Huron Consulting Caught in an Accounting Scandal

March 10th, 2010

This report was originally published 7/31/09.Huron Consulting announced an earnings restatement, changes to management and lowered guidance for the fiscal year after the close today – in short a complete disaster for...

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Despite Weakness in the AIA Billings Index, Channel Checks Suggest Another Quarter of Upside Out of ARP – Looking at...

March 10th, 2010

This report was originally published 7/31/09.We continue to recommend purchase of ARP shares, even after the 50% gain in the stock since we first introduced the idea.  The company will report...

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The Brink’s Company Is STILL a Good Place to Keep Your Cash

March 10th, 2010

This report was originally published 7/30/09.In our original post on the Brink’s Company, we argued that the company would perform well in the current economic environment based on the steady secular growth of cash in circulation (cash is still king),...

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Recent Correction in ARP Shares Brings the FCF Yield Back to 20%+

March 8th, 2010

This report was originally published on 6/24/09.Since reaching its YTD high of $10.11 on June 5, ARP shares have witnessed a 20% correction. At today’s price, ARP shares now sport a free cash flow (FCF) yield of 20%. After generating $20 million in FCF...

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The Brink’s Company (BCO): A Safe Place To Keep Your Cash

March 8th, 2010

This report was originally published 6/8/09.If we have learned anything over the past 12-18 months, it has been that “cash is king”.  Not only is cash king, but it is a significant growth business on a global basis.  Even with the proliferation of credit...

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Chairman Schapiro’s Testimony Highlights an Increasingly Active SEC – HURN Will Benefit

March 8th, 2010

This report was originally published 6/2/09Mary L. Schapiro, Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) testified before the Subcommittee on Financial Services and General Government today. The purpose of the...

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Huron Consulting Group: An Investment Made with a More Aggressive SEC in Mind

March 8th, 2010

This report was originally published on 5/29/09.To say the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has been embarrassed over the past few years would be an understatement. It is hard to imagine a worse period for the SEC than what the agency...

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AIA Architecture Billings Index for April 2009 Supportive of Our Free Cash Flow Outlook for ARP

March 8th, 2010

This report was originally published on 5/20/09.The American Institute of Architects (AIA) released their Architecture Billings Index (ABI) for April 2009 today. Overall, the ABI index has been proven to be a solid indicator...

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ARP is a Cash Cow. If That’s the Worst of It, We’ll Take All We Can Get

March 7th, 2010

This report was originally published on 5/7/09.ARP reported 1Q09 results after the close. You can read the detail here. The quick highlights are as follows: Revenues were inline with street consensus, but the company had clear positive...

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Comments from a Reprographics Industry Veteran

March 7th, 2010

This report was originally published on 5/6/09.We had the opportunity to speak with a three-decade veteran of the reprographics industry to get a better sense of his views on the state of the marketplace, the competitive landscape, consolidation opportunities, and the...

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