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Solving the Credit Crisis..... In Higher Education

June 18th, 2010

Over the past 48 hours a significant change has occurred in the operating landscape for proprietary higher education institutions.  While most investors and sell-side analysts debate the eventual outcome of the Department of Education's "gainful employment" proposal,...

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WPO: 1Q10 Results Do Little To Change Our Short Thesis, Our Revised Estimates

May 10th, 2010

WPO reported 1Q10 results on 5/7.  Overall, the results did little to alter our short thesis on the stock.  The company beat our estimates on the topline but fell short of our EPS forecast due to lower than expected profitability at the...

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COCO's 3Q10 Results Might Signal the Last Days of Margin Expansion, The Questions that Should Be Asked, Establishing a...

May 4th, 2010

COCO reported 3Q10 earnings results this morning.  You can read the full release here.  Overall, we would characterize the results as more or less inline, but they will likely be viewed as a...

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ESI's 1Q10 Results Were Stronger Than Expected, but Leave Us With Plenty of Questions

April 22nd, 2010

ESI reported 1Q10 results this morning that topped PAA Research and consensus expectations. You can read the full release here.   Here are the quick highlights: Revenues and EPS of $384.0 million and $2.46 beat consensus...

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ESI 1Q10 Preview, New Lawsuit Raises More Questions About ESI's Regulatory Compliance Practices

April 19th, 2010

ESI will report 1Q10 results on Thursday, 4/22 before the market opens.  Based on the feedback from our recent survey of privately held for-profit education institutions, we think enrollment momentum across ESI's network of...

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A "Must Read" Report for Any Investor in the For-Profit Education Sector Heading Into 1Q10 Earnings Season

April 14th, 2010

In the for-profit postsecondary education sector, controversy never dies and it seems like trading opportunities are omnipresent. After a one-month period during which news flow within the industry slowed to a...

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Surprising Observations From the ACICS Key Operating Statistics Report for 2009

April 9th, 2010

Earlier this week, the Accrediting Council for Independent Colleges and Schools (ACICS) finally released its Key Operating Statistics report for FY09 (6/30/09).  You can find the full report here.  The report includes a comprehensive...

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WPO 10-K Highlights – Program Review at Kaplan University, Kaplan Resolves 25% CDR Issue at a Few Schools

March 12th, 2010

This report was originally published on 3/4/10.We recently discussed WPO (446.15 ↓1.20%)’s 4Q09 results, which have prompted a 5.8% rally in shares.  In our review, we highlighted how we were eagerly...

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WPO 4Q09: Margin Improvement at Newspaper and Broadcasting Divisions Overshadow Sequential Decline in Margins at Kaplan...

March 12th, 2010

WPO reported 4Q09 results this morning. You can read all of the details here.  The company’s revenue and EPS of $1.238 billion and $8.71 beat the lone set of analysts estimates out there of $1.16...

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Chart of the Week: Do Your Remember When APOL Was Known For Enrolling High Quality Working Adults?

March 12th, 2010

This report was originally published on 2/21/10.Our entry for chart of the week is sure to send a painful reminder to shareholders of APOL(63.11 ↓0.52%) about Friday’s sell-off.  APOL provided initial guidance for...

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ESI 10-K Highlights, the “More You Learn, the More You Earn” Student Covenant Continues to Slip Away While Cohort...

March 12th, 2010

This report was originally published on 2/21/10.ESI released its annual 10-K filing on Friday. We wanted to provide you with a few key observations and revisit some of the original tenets of our...

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COCO Continues to Struggle With High Cohort Default Rates – “Self Regulation” Is Not Only Likely, It’s Necessary

March 12th, 2010

This report was originally published on 2/9/10.In an 8-K filing this morning, COCO (17.72 ↑1.72%) disclosed its draft 2-year cohort default rate (CDR) data for FY08, which was released to...

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Quick Comments on COCO’s 2Q10 Results: Higher Retention Sparks Revenue Upside, Starts Fall Short, EPS Beat Driven by...

March 12th, 2010

This report was originally published on 2/2/10.COCO reported 1Q10 results this morning.  You can read the full press releasehere. Overall the company delivered upside to consensus on both the top...

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PAA Research For-Profit Education Survey Suggests Enrollment Growth for the Winter Term Remained Robust, Some Slowdown...

March 12th, 2010

This report was originally published on 1/26/10.We recently conducted a survey of privately-held for-profit postsecondary education institutions.  Our goal was to gain a better understanding of...

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ESI Reports a Solid Quarter, New “Private Student Loan Program” Optically Looks Good, Economically “Kicks the Can...

March 12th, 2010

This report was originally published on 1/21/10.ESI reported 4Q09 results this morning. You can read the full press releasehere. Overall we would characterize the results as a solid beat relative to...

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ESI 4Q09 Preview: The Last Days of Operating Margin Leverage?

March 12th, 2010

This report was originally published on 1/19/10.ESI will report 4Q09 results on Thursday, before the market opens.  Here are the issues which we expect to be at the forefront of investor concerns heading into and subsequent to the company’s earnings...

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The Dept. of Education Fires A Shot Across the Bow of the Higher Learning Commission (HLC)

March 11th, 2010

This report was published on 12/17/09.The education stocks are trading off today following the release of a memorandum from the Department of Education’s Office of Inspector General (OIG).   You can find the memorandumhere. ...

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Unofficial FY07 3-Year Cohort Default Rates Come In-line With Expectations, Now Comes the Hard Part for COCO and WPO

March 11th, 2010

This report was originally published on 12/14/09.The Department of Education released unofficial 3-year cohort default rate data this morning.  You can find the DOE’s press release here, which also...

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Preparing for the Release of Unofficial 3-Year Cohort Default Rate Data – Follow the Script, At the Very Least...

March 11th, 2010

This report was originally published on 12/9/09.We have expressed our concerns in the past about the impact the transition from a 2-year to a 3-year cohort default rate calculation could have on the...

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Details of Department of Education Negotiated Rulemaking Proposals Leak Out – Incentive Comp and Program...

March 11th, 2010

This report was originally published 12/1/09.The U.S. Department of Education (DOE) distributed its first round of proposals to the negotiated rulemaking panel on Monday on Program Integrity Issues...

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WPO Alters Revenue Recognition Policy for Kaplan Higher Education, More Enrollment Reconcilliation

March 11th, 2010

This report was originally published on 11/8/09.In a recent letter to Warren Buffet, we voiced our concerns about what seem to be growing regulatory issues at Washington Post Company (WPO 444.32 ↓2.02%)’s most...

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WPO’s 3Q09 Results, What is an Enrollment at Kaplan? COCO’s 10-Q Filing

March 11th, 2010

This report was originally published on 10/30/09.We wanted to address a few issues related the for-profit education sector: WPO (445.09↓1.85%)’s 3Q09 results, a few thoughts on COCO (17.28 ↓1.20%)’s 10-Q filing and a playbook for the...

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Apollo Group’s 4Q09 Results Send Shockwaves: Could the SEC Inquiry Relate to Accounting for Student Withdrawals? APOL...

March 11th, 2010

This report was originally published 10/28/09.Readers of our research know that we have been bearish on the for-profit education sector for the past few quarters based on our concerns about growing...

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COCO’s Upcoming 1Q10 Results: More Bad-Debt Expense “Slight of Hand”? How Long Can Lead Cost Deflation Last?

March 11th, 2010

This report was originally published on 10/27/09.Corinthian Colleges, Inc. will report 1Q10 results on Thursday before the market opens.  Overall we expect the company to post inline results highlighted...

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Quick Thoughts on ESI’s 3Q09 Results: Low Quality EPS Beat, Bad-Debt Expense Continues to Grow, First Ever Seq....

March 11th, 2010

ESI reported 3Q09 result this morning. You can find the release here.  Overall the company beat by approximately $5 million on the topline and $0.03 on the bottomline. Here are our quick...

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ESI 3Q09 Preview, Backing Into FY10 Consensus – Margins Don’t Grow to the Sky Do They?

March 11th, 2010

This report was originally published 10/21/09.ESI reports 3Q09 earnings and fall term enrollments Thursday morning.  In general, we have discussed at great length our concerns about what we view as structural issues with the...

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COCO Takes a Bigger Bite in California – Analyzing the Heald Capital (Heald College Acquisition)

March 11th, 2010

This report was originally published on 10/20/09.Corinthian Colleges (COCO 17.39 ↓0.57%), Inc. announced it has reached an agreement to acquire Heald Capital, the owner of Heald Colleges for a total consideration of...

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At Least For Now For the Bulls In For-Profit Education “It Just Doesn’t Matter”, Next Up Earnings and “NegReg”

March 10th, 2010

This report was originally published 10/14/09.A hearing was held today by the House Committee on Education and Labor entitled: “Ensuring Student Eligibility Requirements for Federal Aid”.  You...

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Dear Mr. Buffet: About the Washington Post Company….

March 10th, 2010

This report was originally published on September 15th, 2009.Please note, the following is a letter PAA Research recently sent to Warren Buffet, Chairman and CEO of Berkshire  Hathaway, Inc.. We thought our readers might find the analysis of Washington Post and...

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SF Weekly Article Harshly Criticizes COCO’s Business Practices

March 10th, 2010

This report was originally published on 9/30/09.SF Weekly has published an article today about Corinthian Colleges and the broader for-profit education sector.  You can find the article here.  Overall the article appears to villify the for-profit...

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