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WPO 10-K Highlights – Program Review at Kaplan University, Kaplan Resolves 25% CDR Issue at a Few Schools

March 12th, 2010

This report was originally published on 3/4/10.We recently discussed WPO (446.15 ↓1.20%)’s 4Q09 results, which have prompted a 5.8% rally in shares.  In our review, we highlighted how we were eagerly...

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PAA Research SMid Cap Portfolio Update – Closing out ZIPR Investment Idea with 77% Gain

March 12th, 2010

This report was originally published on 3/2/10.We wanted to provide you with an update on the performance of our SMid Cap portfolio, which we introduced on 9/3/09. As a reminder this is a “mock” portfolio with an initial...

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WPO 4Q09: Margin Improvement at Newspaper and Broadcasting Divisions Overshadow Sequential Decline in Margins at Kaplan...

March 12th, 2010

WPO reported 4Q09 results this morning. You can read all of the details here.  The company’s revenue and EPS of $1.238 billion and $8.71 beat the lone set of analysts estimates out there of $1.16...

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Chart of the Week: Do Your Remember When APOL Was Known For Enrolling High Quality Working Adults?

March 12th, 2010

This report was originally published on 2/21/10.Our entry for chart of the week is sure to send a painful reminder to shareholders of APOL(63.11 ↓0.52%) about Friday’s sell-off.  APOL provided initial guidance for...

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ESI 10-K Highlights, the “More You Learn, the More You Earn” Student Covenant Continues to Slip Away While Cohort...

March 12th, 2010

This report was originally published on 2/21/10.ESI released its annual 10-K filing on Friday. We wanted to provide you with a few key observations and revisit some of the original tenets of our...

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COCO Continues to Struggle With High Cohort Default Rates – “Self Regulation” Is Not Only Likely, It’s Necessary

March 12th, 2010

This report was originally published on 2/9/10.In an 8-K filing this morning, COCO (17.72 ↑1.72%) disclosed its draft 2-year cohort default rate (CDR) data for FY08, which was released to...

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Quick Comments on COCO’s 2Q10 Results: Higher Retention Sparks Revenue Upside, Starts Fall Short, EPS Beat Driven by...

March 12th, 2010

This report was originally published on 2/2/10.COCO reported 1Q10 results this morning.  You can read the full press releasehere. Overall the company delivered upside to consensus on both the top...

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PAA Research For-Profit Education Survey Suggests Enrollment Growth for the Winter Term Remained Robust, Some Slowdown...

March 12th, 2010

This report was originally published on 1/26/10.We recently conducted a survey of privately-held for-profit postsecondary education institutions.  Our goal was to gain a better understanding of...

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ESI Reports a Solid Quarter, New “Private Student Loan Program” Optically Looks Good, Economically “Kicks the Can...

March 12th, 2010

This report was originally published on 1/21/10.ESI reported 4Q09 results this morning. You can read the full press releasehere. Overall we would characterize the results as a solid beat relative to...

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ESI 4Q09 Preview: The Last Days of Operating Margin Leverage?

March 12th, 2010

This report was originally published on 1/19/10.ESI will report 4Q09 results on Thursday, before the market opens.  Here are the issues which we expect to be at the forefront of investor concerns heading into and subsequent to the company’s earnings...

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ZIPR Blows Away 4Q09 Revenue Estimates, Continued Market Share Gains Should Lead to Positive EBITDA and FCF in 2010

March 12th, 2010

This report was originally published on 1/6/10.ZipRealty Inc. announced preliminary revenue results for 4Q09.  You can read the full releasehere.  Overall, the company topped consensus revenue...

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The Dept. of Education Fires A Shot Across the Bow of the Higher Learning Commission (HLC)

March 11th, 2010

This report was published on 12/17/09.The education stocks are trading off today following the release of a memorandum from the Department of Education’s Office of Inspector General (OIG).   You can find the memorandumhere. ...

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Channel Checks With Independent Jewelers Indicate Trends Might Not Be As Bad as the Zales November Comp Would Have You...

March 11th, 2010

This report was originally published on 12/16/09.Shares of SIG (29.54 ↓0.94%) have pulled back in the past 10-days following ZLC (3.03↓6.19%)’s 10-Q filing, in which Zale’s reported...

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Unofficial FY07 3-Year Cohort Default Rates Come In-line With Expectations, Now Comes the Hard Part for COCO and WPO

March 11th, 2010

This report was originally published on 12/14/09.The Department of Education released unofficial 3-year cohort default rate data this morning.  You can find the DOE’s press release here, which also...

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Preparing for the Release of Unofficial 3-Year Cohort Default Rate Data – Follow the Script, At the Very Least...

March 11th, 2010

This report was originally published on 12/9/09.We have expressed our concerns in the past about the impact the transition from a 2-year to a 3-year cohort default rate calculation could have on the...

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Details of Department of Education Negotiated Rulemaking Proposals Leak Out – Incentive Comp and Program...

March 11th, 2010

This report was originally published 12/1/09.The U.S. Department of Education (DOE) distributed its first round of proposals to the negotiated rulemaking panel on Monday on Program Integrity Issues...

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WPO Alters Revenue Recognition Policy for Kaplan Higher Education, More Enrollment Reconcilliation

March 11th, 2010

This report was originally published on 11/8/09.In a recent letter to Warren Buffet, we voiced our concerns about what seem to be growing regulatory issues at Washington Post Company (WPO 444.32 ↓2.02%)’s most...

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WPO’s 3Q09 Results, What is an Enrollment at Kaplan? COCO’s 10-Q Filing

March 11th, 2010

This report was originally published on 10/30/09.We wanted to address a few issues related the for-profit education sector: WPO (445.09↓1.85%)’s 3Q09 results, a few thoughts on COCO (17.28 ↓1.20%)’s 10-Q filing and a playbook for the...

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Closing Our Our SWHC Short Idea With a 10.6% Return

March 11th, 2010

This report was originally published on 10/28/09.We are closing out our short idea in Smith and Wesson (SWHC 4.74 ↑0.42%).  We are also removing the SWHC short position from our PAA Research SMid Cap portfolio.  Even though we think consensus estimates remain...

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Apollo Group’s 4Q09 Results Send Shockwaves: Could the SEC Inquiry Relate to Accounting for Student Withdrawals? APOL...

March 11th, 2010

This report was originally published 10/28/09.Readers of our research know that we have been bearish on the for-profit education sector for the past few quarters based on our concerns about growing...

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COCO’s Upcoming 1Q10 Results: More Bad-Debt Expense “Slight of Hand”? How Long Can Lead Cost Deflation Last?

March 11th, 2010

This report was originally published on 10/27/09.Corinthian Colleges, Inc. will report 1Q10 results on Thursday before the market opens.  Overall we expect the company to post inline results highlighted...

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Quick Thoughts on ESI’s 3Q09 Results: Low Quality EPS Beat, Bad-Debt Expense Continues to Grow, First Ever Seq....

March 11th, 2010

ESI reported 3Q09 result this morning. You can find the release here.  Overall the company beat by approximately $5 million on the topline and $0.03 on the bottomline. Here are our quick...

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ESI 3Q09 Preview, Backing Into FY10 Consensus – Margins Don’t Grow to the Sky Do They?

March 11th, 2010

This report was originally published 10/21/09.ESI reports 3Q09 earnings and fall term enrollments Thursday morning.  In general, we have discussed at great length our concerns about what we view as structural issues with the...

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COCO Takes a Bigger Bite in California – Analyzing the Heald Capital (Heald College Acquisition)

March 11th, 2010

This report was originally published on 10/20/09.Corinthian Colleges (COCO 17.39 ↓0.57%), Inc. announced it has reached an agreement to acquire Heald Capital, the owner of Heald Colleges for a total consideration of...

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At Least For Now For the Bulls In For-Profit Education “It Just Doesn’t Matter”, Next Up Earnings and “NegReg”

March 10th, 2010

This report was originally published 10/14/09.A hearing was held today by the House Committee on Education and Labor entitled: “Ensuring Student Eligibility Requirements for Federal Aid”.  You...

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Dear Mr. Buffet: About the Washington Post Company….

March 10th, 2010

This report was originally published on September 15th, 2009.Please note, the following is a letter PAA Research recently sent to Warren Buffet, Chairman and CEO of Berkshire  Hathaway, Inc.. We thought our readers might find the analysis of Washington Post and...

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SF Weekly Article Harshly Criticizes COCO’s Business Practices

March 10th, 2010

This report was originally published on 9/30/09.SF Weekly has published an article today about Corinthian Colleges and the broader for-profit education sector.  You can find the article here.  Overall the article appears to villify the for-profit...

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The “Obama Effect” One Year Later – What Firearms Dealers Are Saying Now

March 10th, 2010

This report was originally published 9/30/09.There is little debate that President Obama’s most effective economic stimulus has been for the broader firearms industry.  As soon as it became clear in October of last year that Obama would...

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A Question of Recourse – The GAO Report Might Not Have Been As Bad As Feared, but It Still Confirmed Our Short Thesis

March 10th, 2010

This report was originally published on 9/22/09.For those of you that have followed our research since inception, you are probably intimately familiar with our concerns about the for-profit education...

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The Winners and Losers from the FY07 Cohort Default Data

March 10th, 2010

This report was originally published on 9/15/09.Yesterday, the Department of Education released student loan cohort default rate data for the 2007 fiscal year.  Overall, the national student loan cohort default rate (CDR) increased from 5.2% to 6.7%.  As we...

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