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IPSU - US Sugar Market Update, Revising FY10 Estimates, Evaluating IPSU's Potential Suitors

March 29th, 2010

On a year-to-date basis, shares of IPSU have dramatically underperformed the S&P 500 and other major benchmarks, despite what we believe is a compelling earnings story and an enormous disconnect between the current market...

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Can AYI's 2Q10 Results Justify the Run-up in the Stock? What Channel Feedback Tells Us - Closing Out Our Long AYI/Short...

March 26th, 2010

Approximately four months ago we introduced a pair trade: long AYI/short HUBB based on our view that AYI shares were poised for mean reversion in stock price performance relative to those of HUBB and...

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Conversations with ARP Management: Answering the BIM Question

March 25th, 2010

We recently had the opportunity to speak with senior management of ARP.  Although we discussed a number of issues that will impact ARP shares in the near-term, our primary focus was on the strategic direction of the company in light of the increased usage...

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MLHR Misses, Street Estimates for FY10 and FY11 Still Look TOO High

March 22nd, 2010

MLHR reported 3Q10 results after the close.  You can read the full earnings release here.  Overall the company missed on both the top and bottom line.  We introduced MLHR as a short idea earlier this week based on our expectations that revenue...

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In the Office Furniture Market the Second Derivative Is Improving, but Maybe Not Quickly Enough – Closing Out Our...

March 14th, 2010

In July of 2009 we introduced a pair trade: Long MLHR/Short HNI.  Our thesis at that time was predicated on the following: MLHR is a superior company to HNI based on almost every financial...

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WPO 10-K Highlights – Program Review at Kaplan University, Kaplan Resolves 25% CDR Issue at a Few Schools

March 12th, 2010

This report was originally published on 3/4/10.We recently discussed WPO (446.15 ↓1.20%)’s 4Q09 results, which have prompted a 5.8% rally in shares.  In our review, we highlighted how we were eagerly...

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PAA Research SMid Cap Portfolio Update – Closing out ZIPR Investment Idea with 77% Gain

March 12th, 2010

This report was originally published on 3/2/10.We wanted to provide you with an update on the performance of our SMid Cap portfolio, which we introduced on 9/3/09. As a reminder this is a “mock” portfolio with an initial...

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WPO 4Q09: Margin Improvement at Newspaper and Broadcasting Divisions Overshadow Sequential Decline in Margins at Kaplan...

March 12th, 2010

WPO reported 4Q09 results this morning. You can read all of the details here.  The company’s revenue and EPS of $1.238 billion and $8.71 beat the lone set of analysts estimates out there of $1.16...

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GCA 4Q09: Block, Tackle and Generate Cash

March 12th, 2010

This report was originally published on 2/22/10.We introduced GCA (8.05 ↓0.86%) as a long idea approximately 4-months ago, since that time shares have appreciated more than 20%.  GCA will report its 4Q09 earnings after the market closes on Tuesday, February 23rd....

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Chart of the Week: Do Your Remember When APOL Was Known For Enrolling High Quality Working Adults?

March 12th, 2010

This report was originally published on 2/21/10.Our entry for chart of the week is sure to send a painful reminder to shareholders of APOL(63.11 ↓0.52%) about Friday’s sell-off.  APOL provided initial guidance for...

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ESI 10-K Highlights, the “More You Learn, the More You Earn” Student Covenant Continues to Slip Away While Cohort...

March 12th, 2010

This report was originally published on 2/21/10.ESI released its annual 10-K filing on Friday. We wanted to provide you with a few key observations and revisit some of the original tenets of our...

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The Five Primary Questions We Asked IPSU Management

March 12th, 2010

This report was originally published on 2/15/10.We recently had the opportunity to speak with IPSU (14.82 ↓0.60%)’s CFO, Hal Mechler and other members of  company management to get answers to a few lingering questions we had following the company’s 1Q10...

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PAA Research SMid Cap Portfolio Update

March 12th, 2010

This report was originally published on 2/15/10.We wanted to provide you with an update on the performance of our SMid Cap portfolio, which we introduced on 9/3/09. As a reminder this is a “mock” portfolio with an initial value of $100 million. We plan to manage the portfolio...

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When the Castle Is Under Siege It Helps To Have a Wide Moat: Long CSGP/Short LOOP

March 12th, 2010

This report was originally published on 2/11/10.A few years ago, Warren Buffet stated to Fortune magazine:“The key to investing is not assessing how much an industry is going to affect society, or how much it will grow, but rather...

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IPSU: Valuing Wholesome Sweeteners, Other Tidbits from the 10Q

March 12th, 2010

This report was originally published on 2/9/10.IPSU issued its 1Q10 10-Q filing this morning.  For the first time, IPSU provided P&L disclosure on Wholesome Sweeteners and Santos separately.  In the past, we have argued that the company’s ownership...

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COCO Continues to Struggle With High Cohort Default Rates – “Self Regulation” Is Not Only Likely, It’s Necessary

March 12th, 2010

This report was originally published on 2/9/10.In an 8-K filing this morning, COCO (17.72 ↑1.72%) disclosed its draft 2-year cohort default rate (CDR) data for FY08, which was released to...

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Delays in Port Wentworth Ramp-up, Concerns About Raw Sugar Costs Don’t Change the Asset Value for IPSU

March 12th, 2010

This report was originally published on 2/5/10.IPSUshares are off 10%+ today following release of the company’s 1Q10 earnings results. Overall, revenues fell short of our expectations, but EPS of $14.84 (including...

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IPSU’s 1Q10 Results Should Illuminate Asset Value, $3.00+ Annual Earnings Power is Still on the Come

March 12th, 2010

This report was originally published on 2/4/10.IPSUwill report 1Q10 results tomorrow before the market opens.  We estimate the company could report EPS in excess of $15.00 based on the company’s settlement of its...

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BCO Happily Says Goodbye to 2009; 2010 Should Be Back to Basics – Steady Organic Growth and Solid FCF Generation

March 12th, 2010

This report was originally published on 2/3/10.Normally when a non-financial services company issues an earnings release that is more than 25 pages, it usually is cause for significant concern.  However...

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Quick Comments on COCO’s 2Q10 Results: Higher Retention Sparks Revenue Upside, Starts Fall Short, EPS Beat Driven by...

March 12th, 2010

This report was originally published on 2/2/10.COCO reported 1Q10 results this morning.  You can read the full press releasehere. Overall the company delivered upside to consensus on both the top...

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PAA Research SMid Cap Portfolio Update

March 12th, 2010

This report was originally published on 2/1/10.We wanted to provide you with an update on the performance of our SMid Cap portfolio, which we introduced on 9/3/09. As a reminder this is a “mock” portfolio with an initial value of $100 million. We plan to manage the portfolio...

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ARP Raises Guidance for 4Q09 Revenues, EPS – Consensus Estimates Appear Too Low for 2010

March 12th, 2010

This report was originally published on 1/27/10.After the close today, ARP (7.65 ↓1.80%) issued a press release indicating that the company now expects to beat its prior revenue and EPS guidance for 4Q09.  You can read the...

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PAA Research For-Profit Education Survey Suggests Enrollment Growth for the Winter Term Remained Robust, Some Slowdown...

March 12th, 2010

This report was originally published on 1/26/10.We recently conducted a survey of privately-held for-profit postsecondary education institutions.  Our goal was to gain a better understanding of...

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Traditional Capital Markets Activity Continues Its Recovery, TWPG Remains Well Positioned to Benefit

March 12th, 2010

This report was originally published on 1/25/10.In our original report on Thomas Weisel (TWPG 3.96 ↑1.02%) Partners entitled “Getting Back to the Basics in the Capital Markets” we argued that TWPG shares were...

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ESI Reports a Solid Quarter, New “Private Student Loan Program” Optically Looks Good, Economically “Kicks the Can...

March 12th, 2010

This report was originally published on 1/21/10.ESI reported 4Q09 results this morning. You can read the full press releasehere. Overall we would characterize the results as a solid beat relative to...

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Feedback from Independent Reprographers Suggests the Potential for ARP to Beat Estimates is High, AIA Billings Index...

March 12th, 2010

This report was originally published on 1/20/10.We introduced ARP (7.64 ↓1.93%)as an investment idea approximately 9-months ago. At that time we thought the stock had considerable upside based in...

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PAA Research SMid Cap Portfolio Update

March 12th, 2010

This report was originally published on 1/19/10.We wanted to provide you with an update on the performance of our SMid Cap portfolio, which we introduced on 9/3/09. As a reminder this is a “mock” portfolio with an initial value of $100 million. We plan to manage the portfolio...

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ESI 4Q09 Preview: The Last Days of Operating Margin Leverage?

March 12th, 2010

This report was originally published on 1/19/10.ESI will report 4Q09 results on Thursday, before the market opens.  Here are the issues which we expect to be at the forefront of investor concerns heading into and subsequent to the company’s earnings...

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One Week After Launch, Sell Through Indicators for Darksiders Suggest Potential Upside to Our Previous Estimates

March 12th, 2010

This report was originally published on 1/13/10.Approximately 2-weeks ago we published a report highlighting our positive expectations for Darksiders, THQI (6.5 ↓0.31%)’s second major launch of owned...

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A View From Outdoor Power Equipment Dealers – Waiting on Weather…

March 12th, 2010

This report was originally published on 1/13/10.Over the past 9-months we have twice introduced the shares of BGG (18.3 ↓0.27%) as a short sale candidate: once in front of the company’s 3Q09 results and the second time in advance of Briggs...

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CTC

SHORT

$101

ATGE

SHORT

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AYI

SHORT

$108

HCG.TO

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RON.TO

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BIG

SHORT

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ESI

SHORT

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BGG

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

TTC

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

Z

SHORT

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NA.TO

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ING.PA

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ZU

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APOL

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OPEN

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BCO

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WWE

LONG

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KNL

PAIR - LONG KNL/SHORT MLHR

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XOXO

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CSGP

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GCA

LONG

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IPSU

LONG

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MLHR

SHORT

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ARC

LONG

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LOOP

PAIR - LONG CSGP/SHORT LOOP

40%

THQI

LONG

$35

WPO

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$275

COCO

SHORT

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HNI

SIG

RGR