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Canadian Banks/HCG.TO: Buy High, Sell Low; What Passes as Prudent Capital Allocation and Risk Management in the...

November 19th, 2019

“I think it's -- the work that's being done in our underwriting team to accurately price for risk. There's a lot of work that's going into the evaluation of business for self...

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Canadian Banks: Earnings Season Was a Disappointment, It Could Have and Should Have Been Much Worse; Take a Gander at...

June 6th, 2019

Heading into earnings season for the Big 6 Canadian banks, we were almost certain that a great deal of the discussion on the analyst conference calls would be centered around loan performance in...

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HCG.TO: The IFRS-9 Accounting Shenanigans Continue

May 9th, 2019

“Yes, because of forward looking, some of the economic scenarios have moderated. So our residential, despite the growth in the portfolio, some of that provision was released” Bradley Kotush.  Home Capital Group CFO. 1Q19 Earnings Conf. Call....

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Where's the Bid? A New, More Troubling Era In Canadian Housing

April 10th, 2019

Over the past few weeks, we conducted a survey of more than 250 real estate agents across Canada. Click on the link below to view our presentation which outlines our research on the Canadian housing market at a high level and the critical findings from our...

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HCG.TO: With NIM Compression and Impaired Loans Up 65%+ YOY, HCG Played the IFRS-9 Remeasurement Game to Boost Earnings

February 22nd, 2019

“….right now, some of those predictive models are saying that there is going to be a more benign economic environment in the future, which would probably then lead to models to come up...

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HCG.TO: On a March to Nowhere, the Structural Flaws of the “New HCG” Have Started to Become Clear

August 14th, 2018

For several years now, we have wondered aloud what HCG’s financial profile would look like in a scenario in which the company was forced to introduce true underwriting rigor to its mortgage origination...

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Canadian Housing: Reflexivity Cuts Both Ways, Negative Feedback Loops Have Started to Emerge

March 29th, 2018

We hope you will consider this report for your weekend reading list. Over the past few weeks we surveyed more than 300 real estate agents in Canada. The attached presentation outlines the feedback we received from those agents...

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HCG.TO: Originate or Die, It’s That Simple, the “Devil” of Course Is in the Details

February 15th, 2018

“Against this backdrop, management and the Board are reassessing the corporate strategy and are focused on finalizing the Company’s long-term strategy during the first half of 2018 to help grow the business, create...

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HCG.TO: Credit Contraction? B-20 Impact? IFRS-9 Gambit? And the Big Question: What Business Is HCG Really in Now?

November 15th, 2017

Meet the new Boss, same as the old Boss?  When Yousry Bissada steps up to the mic today to discuss the performance of HCG during the first three months of his stewardship, we’re almost certain...

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HCG.TO: Is There a Plan to Create Sustainable Earnings as a Slowing GTA Housing Market, B-20 Guidelines, and IFRS-9...

August 3rd, 2017

Are HCG investors really better off than they were three months ago?  At that time, HCG faced a liquidity crisis that the company narrowly survived.  The stock price, which many would argue...

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HCG.TO: There’s Declining Book Value/Share and Not Much Else, Why Pay More than Warren? Moving Price Objective to $10

June 22nd, 2017

In what can only be described as a shocking development to most participants in the Canadian financial ecosystem, HCG announced late last night that Berkshire Hathaway will provide the company with a...

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HCG.TO: “Existence of Material Uncertainty – Future Funding Capabilities”, Reiterating $0 Price Objective

May 12th, 2017

HCG reported 1Q17 adjusted EPS of….. Just kidding.  Make no mistake the entity known as Home Capital Group and its primary lending subsidiary, Home Trust no longer exist.  As we argued a few...

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HCG.TO: Liquidation Looks Increasingly Likely, Reiterating $0 Price Objective

April 26th, 2017

               “If it keeps on rainin', levee's goin' to break If it keeps on rainin', levee's goin' to break When the levee breaks I'll have no place to...

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HCG.TO: Truthless, Rudderless, and Now Possibly Valueless, Taking Price Objective to $0

April 20th, 2017

“But I can't end the call without a little ditty that someone passed on to me of how people in the 19th century dealt with shorts. And the little ditty goes something like this. He who sells what isn't his'n, must...

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Current Ideas

EXPI

SELL/SHORT

$4

HUSQ.B

SELL

$50

UFPI

SELL/SHORT

$45

TREX

SHORT

$18

PRDO

SELL/SHORT

$5

STRA

SELL/SHORT

$42

CWH

LONG

$75

OSTK

LONG

$128

CM

SELL/SHORT

$50

RY

SELL/SHORT

$50

ARC

LONG

$5.50

AYI

SHORT

$50

BIG

SHORT

$28

WWE

LONG

$65

XOXO

LONG

$37

RLGY

PAIR TRADE

$10

RDFN

PAIR TRADE

$30

BCO

LONG

$35

ING.PA

SHORT

$35

TRUP

SELL/SHORT

$10

CTC

SHORT

$101

ATGE

SHORT

$15

HCG.TO

SHORT

$0

RON.TO

SHORT

$9

ESI

SHORT

$0

BGG

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

TTC

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

Z

SHORT

$14.00

NA.TO

SHORT

$22

ZU

SHORT

$15

TRLA

SHORT

$20

MCRS

SHORT

$31

APOL

SHORT

$35

OPEN

SHORT

$30

KNL

PAIR - LONG KNL/SHORT MLHR

25%

CSGP

SHORT

$100

GCA

LONG

$8

IPSU

LONG

$20

MLHR

SHORT

$22

LOOP

PAIR - LONG CSGP/SHORT LOOP

40%

THQI

LONG

$35

WPO

SHORT

$275

COCO

SHORT

$0

HNI

SIG

RGR