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AYI: Nowhere to Hide - PAA Research's Fourth Quarter Lighting Agent Survey

December 12th, 2017

PAA Research surveys lighting agents across the country on a semi-annual basis.  The latest survey was conducted in the first few weeks of November.  35 lighting agents responded to our survey.     

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ATGE: How Much Would You Pay to Change a Story? For ATGE the Price STARTS at $7.5 Million

December 5th, 2017

In a move that has been telegraphed for some time but occurred sooner than expected, ATGE announced that it has reached an agreement with Cogswell Education to “sell” DVU.  The headline purchase price is $1,...

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BIG: A Low Quality Earnings Beat Is the Least Worrisome of the Red Flags

December 4th, 2017

Expanded square footage, broader product offerings and SKU sets (gray!), more liberal down payment options through Progressive, and the Big Lots private label credit card couldn’t prevent BIG from witnessing massive deceleration in growth...

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CM.TO/RY.TO: “You Come at the King(s), You Best Not Miss”; The Credit Cycle is Here - Time to get Short

November 28th, 2017

The gravity of this statement from The Wire’s Omar Little is not lost on us. Time and time again in the two and half years that we have been following the Canadian housing market investors have suggested to...

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HCG.TO: Credit Contraction? B-20 Impact? IFRS-9 Gambit? And the Big Question: What Business Is HCG Really in Now?

November 15th, 2017

Meet the new Boss, same as the old Boss?  When Yousry Bissada steps up to the mic today to discuss the performance of HCG during the first three months of his stewardship, we’re almost certain...

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Z/ZG: Our Confidence in Our Short Thesis Continues to Grow

November 8th, 2017

Even through the prism of what some might argue are “jade colored glasses”, we cannot find enormous fault with Zillow’s 3Q17 earnings results and 4Q17 outlook.  The company delivered a modest topline beat largely due to better than...

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AYI: Time to Turn Out the Lights? The LED Adoption Cycle Could Be Cresting

November 7th, 2017

“We are often asked about the vitality and conditions of the key end markets we serve. We now know that the overall growth rate of the lighting market over the last 2 quarters was essentially flat and even slightly down compared with the...

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ATGE: Games People Play – Management Continues to Try to “Fake It Until They Make It” While Diluting the Core...

November 3rd, 2017

“Games people play, You take it or leave it Things that they say, Just don't make it right If I'm tellin' you the truth right now, do you believe it Games people play in...

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FOR-PROFIT EDU: STRA and CPLA - A Merger Forged Out of Necessity, If Not Fear of Survival

October 30th, 2017

This morning STRA and CPLA announced their intention to “merge” in an all-stock deal.  CPLA shareholders will receive 0.875 shares of STRA stock for each share they own.  Although this transaction has been...

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CTC: We’ve Seen This Story Before and It Doesn’t End Well, Time to Get Short

October 9th, 2017

“We’re focused on growth in e-commerce….I don’t think enough companies worry about obsolescence. We think about it all the time.” Kevan Gorrie, CEO Pure Industrial REIT 2/9/17 (Canada...

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AYI: As Management Makes It Up as They Go Along, It’s Becoming Clear This Is No Longer a Growth Company

October 5th, 2017

For some investors and analysts, today was yet another grand exercise in banging your head against the wall, which some have affectionately (or not so affectionately) called short selling.  We recognize why...

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CSGP: Collision Course – After $1.1B+ Spend on Multi-Family Lead Gen, Growth Prospectively Will Need to Come at the...

September 14th, 2017

“We're very excited to take the online lead in the segment with such spectacular growth. As we integrate ForRent, we believe that we can offer their perspective renters access to the most...

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BIG: After Months of Frustration We Now Can See the Beginning of the End

August 25th, 2017

“I guess the best thing that I can say is from a strategic standpoint, Seasonal and Furniture and Soft Home seem to be categories that not everybody is focused on.” Timothy A. Johnson, Big Lots CFO, 8/25/17 2Q17 Earnings Conf....

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Z/ZG: The Hunter Becomes the Hunted - Feedback From 380+ Real Estate Agents

August 21st, 2017

The attached powerpoint presentation summarizes our findings from our 8th annual survey of real estate agents in the United States.  

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ATGE: Boxed Into a Corner as We Approach Stall Speed

August 18th, 2017

“Our transformation is well underway, as reflected in our heightened focus on our student-centric culture, our new corporate name and our improving financial performance.” Lisa Wardell, CEO Adtalem Global Education, Inc. 8/17/17 Well at least...

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Z/ZG: An Earnings Conference Call “For the Ages” That Reminds Us Why Zillow Has Become Our Top Short Idea; The...

August 9th, 2017

Redfin is trying to get rid of buyers' agents, and we'll see how that goes. As I said previously though, we are focused on doing something different. We are brokerage-agnostic is the way for...

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HCG.TO: Is There a Plan to Create Sustainable Earnings as a Slowing GTA Housing Market, B-20 Guidelines, and IFRS-9...

August 3rd, 2017

Are HCG investors really better off than they were three months ago?  At that time, HCG faced a liquidity crisis that the company narrowly survived.  The stock price, which many would argue...

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Z/ZG: Seven Causes for Concern (at least) as Zillow Management Pushes the “Narrative”

July 26th, 2017

Approximately two weeks ago, Spencer Rascoff, CEO of Zillow published a post on LinkedIn entitled: “Why Some Investors Care About Culture”.  In the post, Mr. Rascoff lauded two (unnamed) investors that are large...

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HCG.TO: There’s Declining Book Value/Share and Not Much Else, Why Pay More than Warren? Moving Price Objective to $10

June 22nd, 2017

In what can only be described as a shocking development to most participants in the Canadian financial ecosystem, HCG announced late last night that Berkshire Hathaway will provide the company with a...

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AYI: Product Price Deflation Has Become the Dominant Trend in Lighting - PAA Research's 2Q17 Lighting Agent Survey

June 7th, 2017

There has been a great deal of discussion in the investment community over the past 6-12 months about the slowdown in the lighting equipment industry.  Many investors as well as the lighting equipment...

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DV: When the “Charm Offensive” Ends and Reality Sets In, DV’s Nursing Problem Will Become the Central Issue, Meet...

May 23rd, 2017

“This is a notable earnings call for me as it marks 1 year since I assumed the CEO position in May of 2016. We have accomplished a great deal in a short period of time, and we're well...

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HCG.TO: “Existence of Material Uncertainty – Future Funding Capabilities”, Reiterating $0 Price Objective

May 12th, 2017

HCG reported 1Q17 adjusted EPS of….. Just kidding.  Make no mistake the entity known as Home Capital Group and its primary lending subsidiary, Home Trust no longer exist.  As we argued a few...

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Z/ZG: Define Small

May 5th, 2017

“Mark, on the CFPB, we don't break out the amount of the revenue that comes from co-marketing efforts, but we have said and it continues to be the case that it's a small portion of overall revenue.” Kathleen Phillips, CFO Zillow, 1Q17 Earnings Conf. Call....

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Z/ZG: These Questions Need to Be Asked; It’s Time to Address the RESPA/CFPB Issue

May 4th, 2017

“Prior to and during the live conference call, investors may submit questions via Sli.do (www.slido.com).  By entering the event code #ZEarnings on the Sli.do homepage, participants will be placed into the queue where they...

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HCG.TO: Liquidation Looks Increasingly Likely, Reiterating $0 Price Objective

April 26th, 2017

               “If it keeps on rainin', levee's goin' to break If it keeps on rainin', levee's goin' to break When the levee breaks I'll have no place to...

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HCG.TO: Truthless, Rudderless, and Now Possibly Valueless, Taking Price Objective to $0

April 20th, 2017

“But I can't end the call without a little ditty that someone passed on to me of how people in the 19th century dealt with shorts. And the little ditty goes something like this. He who sells what isn't his'n, must...

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AYI: Management Has a Vision, Just Not a Clear One, Lowering Price Objective to $108

April 4th, 2017

Truth be told, we’ve all seen this happen before: A management team gets praised for consistently beating numbers and its “long term vision” for the company during the early stage of a product/economic cycle. ...

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Current Ideas

WWE

LONG

$35

RY

SELL/SHORT

$70

CM

SELL/SHORT

$76

CTC

SHORT

$101

ATGE

SHORT

$15

AYI

SHORT

$108

HCG.TO

SHORT

$0

RON.TO

SHORT

$9

BIG

SHORT

$28

ESI

SHORT

$0

BGG

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

TTC

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

Z

SHORT

$14.00

NA.TO

SHORT

$22

ING.PA

SHORT

$35

ZU

SHORT

$15

TRLA

SHORT

$20

MCRS

SHORT

$31

APOL

SHORT

$35

OPEN

SHORT

$30

BCO

LONG

$35

KNL

PAIR - LONG KNL/SHORT MLHR

25%

XOXO

LONG

$20

CSGP

SHORT

$100

GCA

LONG

$8

IPSU

LONG

$20

MLHR

SHORT

$22

ARC

LONG

$12.50

LOOP

PAIR - LONG CSGP/SHORT LOOP

40%

THQI

LONG

$35

WPO

SHORT

$275

COCO

SHORT

$0

HNI

SIG

RGR