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CSGP: A Year From Now, Who Will Remember Brad Bellflower? Cutting Adjusted EBITDA and EPS Estimates

June 8th, 2015

Now that was a press release straight out of the late 1990’s tech company playbook.  Even for a management team that’s renown for its constant self-promotion and “smoke and mirrors” games with growth metrics,...

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ESI: A Grand Exercise in Greater Fool Theory as the March to Zero Continues

June 2nd, 2015

It’s as if the SEC never filed suit against ESI, the CEO, and the CFO….The 100%+ rally in shares of ESI over the past three trading days has been truly something to behold.  The stock has been acting like the typical villain in a horror...

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Z: Game Changer? The Age of Upstream Might Finally Be Upon Us As Brokers Attempt to Reassert Control over the Flow of...

May 15th, 2015

“Beware the the “tions” of 2015, Especially Those Related to Project Upstream….”-          PAA Research, 1/29/15“There’s something brewing here that really makes me think that...

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Z: Purposeful Obfuscation of Slowing Metrics and Other Key Takeaways from Zillow’s Earnings Release and Analyst Calls

May 13th, 2015

Heading into the company’s 1Q15 earnings call we thought we might get the following from Zillow: Messy 1Q15 results - check New metrics that would be impossible to reconcile with historical...

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ESI: The ZERO Scenario Is Finally Here and the For-Profit Education Space Might Never Be the Same

May 12th, 2015

“You shouldn’t talk to that guy, he’s a liar”You might be thinking that’s a quote from someone talking about Kevin Modany, but in fact this is a quote FROM Kevin Modany which was said to a reporter when he was...

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HCG.TO: A Web of Inconsistencies, As We Look Back to the 1990’s

May 8th, 2015

Among Canadian financial services companies Home Capital Group has had a remarkable run of generating strong loan growth, 20%+ ROE, and most importantly for investors, significant shareholder returns.  The stock is up 40 fold over the past 15 years! ...

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CSGP: Why Are Investors Excited About CoStar’s Capital Intensive, Margin Dilutive Market Share Grab in Rentals?

May 1st, 2015

“Yeah. I'm not buying that stock [Apartment finder] at that price [14x EBITDA]. I will buy that stock at half that price.”-          Andy Florance, CEO CoStar Group, Inc. 4/30/15Just an...

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WWE: Starting to Play the Game? Churn Concerns Continue to Persist

April 30th, 2015

In general as a public company, WWE has done a poor job of managing investor expectations.  Management has yet to fully figure out how to play the game of underpromising and overdelivering.  This dynamic was particularly problematic in 2014 when...

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Z: Stretching to Achieve Growth and Shrinking the TAM – Zillow’s Inventory Issues Result in New Policies that...

April 24th, 2015

For the past year, we have been arguing that Zillow has a major advertising inventory problem.  The growth of the company’s premier agent featured listing program combined with deals Zillow has...

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DV: APOL by Another Name? Lowering Target to $25

April 23rd, 2015

We’re thinking of a for-profit education company that operates a large national university with a strong presence in nursing, a big online platform, and a heavy mix of bachelor’s degree students that also owns a group of international universities.  Can you guess...

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Z: Is It Time to Question This Management Team? Taking our Price Objective to $50

April 15th, 2015

Well that was interesting.  This is not our first rodeo in a heavily shorted battleground stock, but for some reason each experience often reveals something new about potential trading action.  Today’s action certainly underscores a...

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Current Ideas

EXPI

SELL/SHORT

$4

HUSQ.B

SELL

$50

UFPI

SELL/SHORT

$45

TREX

SHORT

$18

PRDO

SELL/SHORT

$5

STRA

SELL/SHORT

$42

CWH

LONG

$75

OSTK

LONG

$128

CM

SELL/SHORT

$50

RY

SELL/SHORT

$50

ARC

LONG

$5.50

AYI

SHORT

$50

BIG

SHORT

$28

WWE

LONG

$65

XOXO

LONG

$37

RLGY

PAIR TRADE

$10

RDFN

PAIR TRADE

$30

BCO

LONG

$35

ING.PA

SHORT

$35

TRUP

SELL/SHORT

$10

CTC

SHORT

$101

ATGE

SHORT

$15

HCG.TO

SHORT

$0

RON.TO

SHORT

$9

ESI

SHORT

$0

BGG

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

TTC

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

Z

SHORT

$14.00

NA.TO

SHORT

$22

ZU

SHORT

$15

TRLA

SHORT

$20

MCRS

SHORT

$31

APOL

SHORT

$35

OPEN

SHORT

$30

KNL

PAIR - LONG KNL/SHORT MLHR

25%

CSGP

SHORT

$100

GCA

LONG

$8

IPSU

LONG

$20

MLHR

SHORT

$22

LOOP

PAIR - LONG CSGP/SHORT LOOP

40%

THQI

LONG

$35

WPO

SHORT

$275

COCO

SHORT

$0

HNI

SIG

RGR