Log In

EXPI/HOUS/RDFN/RMAX/Z/ZG/CSGP/DOUG/COMP: Winners and Losers From the Proposed NAR Settlement; 10 Things That WILL...

March 21st, 2024

Last Friday was a rough trading day in the residential real estate services space for ardent supporters of the efficient market hypothesis. After all, the original case against the National...

READ MORE >

OSTK: The Good, the Bad, and the Pathway to Massive Shareholder Value Creation

September 22nd, 2023

Following OSTK over the past 4-years has been nothing short of exhausting. Over the past 6-12 months, we have grown increasingly disappointed and frustrated with OSTK’s execution miscues, market share losses, poorly crafted investor...

READ MORE >

OSTK: The Waiting Is the Hardest Part in this Game of “Survive and Advance”; OSTK Shares Feel Washed Out

October 27th, 2022

“Where’s all the stores? Ain’t Dere no more!” Benny Grunch and the Bunch. WWLTV New Orleans https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gb_dE9oKSN4 NINETEEN.  That’s the...

READ MORE >

OSTK: If This Is as Bad as It Can Get, OSTK Could Be a Huge Winner in This Game of “Survival of the Fittest”

July 29th, 2022

Truth be told, when we hopped out of bed this morning and quickly reviewed OSTK’s 2Q22 operating results we started to gird ourselves for another day of frustration and grew worried we might see a...

READ MORE >

OSTK: Ten Reasons Things Will Get Better from Here for OSTK and Its Shareholders

April 29th, 2022

We lack imagination as investors.  It is the hallmark of every bull and bear market that we underestimate the upside and cannot fathom the downside for the companies in which we invest long or short.  This statement not only...

READ MORE >

OSTK: The SEC’s Approval of the BSTX Exchange Could Represent a Seminal Event in the History of Capital Markets and...

January 28th, 2022

In Russell Napier’s phenomenal book Anatomy of the Bear (which we will likely review again over the weekend), the author suggests that one of the hallmarks of bear markets is that good news...

READ MORE >

OSTK: Something Has to Give - OSTK’s Retail Business Could Be Trading at Less than

January 26th, 2022

If you were to pick two factors over the past 8-12 weeks with which you would never want your company to be associated it would be supposed COVID19 “winner” and tech.  Well as far as...

READ MORE >

EXPI/RLGY: Real Estate Wars - The “White Hot” Housing Market Has Masked a RACE to the Bottom Among Residential Real...

August 17th, 2021

The race to the bottom in broker economics.

READ MORE >

EXPI: As Good As It Will Ever Get? Now EXPI Faces the Struggle of Trying to Become a Real Brokerage Firm

March 12th, 2021

“I think, even starting in early 2020, we really backed off the top line number of 10% gross margin for core brokerage, just because as we learned more about how all this mixes together, it would be tough to...

READ MORE >

OSTK: When Striving for Greatness, Never Bury the Lead

February 25th, 2021

Two weeks ago OSTK shares traded north of $110/share.  OSTK shares have declined (-35%) in just 10-trading days.  This begs one simple question: what the hell happened?  First and foremost, if you’re a longtime follower of OSTK this type of...

READ MORE >

OSTK: Accelerating the Evolution of Overstock, Raising Price Objective to $140

January 26th, 2021

“Pelion” – a huge or difficult task. “In Greek mythology, the twins Otus and Ephialtes piled Mount Pelion on Mount Ossa and both on Mount Olympus in an attempt to reach heaven and attack the gods. The word is...

READ MORE >

OSTK: Is Overstock the Cheapest Stock We Follow? Twenty-one Questions for 2021; Raising Price Objective to $128

January 15th, 2021

Overstock.com is a rapidly growing, profitable ecommerce platform generating significant free cash flow that also owns a promising portfolio of blockchain based technology companies.  How rare is that?...

READ MORE >

EXPI: When Stock Price Is Your Only Fundamental, It’s Time To Sell; Introducing EXPI as a Short Idea with a Price...

September 28th, 2020

The stock market has been extraordinarily kind to “fake it until you make it” stories that operate in large total addressable markets (TAM).  If you run a long/short book in any...

READ MORE >

OSTK: The Flywheel Is Really Cranking Now and the Impact of the GSA Contract Could Be Bigger Than COVID-19; Raising...

July 30th, 2020

Overstock.com is a rapidly growing, profitable ecommerce platform generating significant free cash flow that also owns a promising portfolio of blockchain based technology companies.  How rare...

READ MORE >

OSTK: The Evolution of Overstock; Raising Estimates and Price Objective to $45

June 12th, 2020

“Extinction is the rule. Survival is the exception.” Carl Sagan On a day in which renewed concerns about the impact of COVID19 on the US economy drove the S&P 500 more than (-5%) lower the question of which...

READ MORE >

OSTK: Sitting With “Pocket Aces”, All OSTK Needs to Do Is Hold Serve; Raising Estimates (Meaningfully)

May 1st, 2020

               “Aces are larger than life and greater than mountains” Mike Caro Neither the most ardent bull nor the...

READ MORE >

OSTK: In a World Where Stocks Continually Get Cheaper, OSTK Now Trading at a Discount to Cash, Could Be One of the...

March 16th, 2020

“So the biggest thing is, we've effectively imposed a view that we want to drive more leverage on the ad cost. So that would manifest to the ad cost as a percentage of revenue. So as you...

READ MORE >

Z/ZG: Bob Seger and the Yield Curve – When the Cyclical Is Confused as the Secular

February 20th, 2020

“And I guess I lost my way There were oh so many roads I was living to run and running to live Never worried about paying or even how much I owed” Seger, Bob. “Against the Wind”. Against the Wind....

READ MORE >

OSTK: Is Anyone Paying Attention? Taking a Closer Look at tZERO’s Monetization Model

November 25th, 2019

               “In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” Benjamin Graham This oft...

READ MORE >

OSTK: The End of the Post Patrick Purge? OSTK Shares Now Trade at a 50%+ Discount To Our Estimate of Current...

November 13th, 2019

We thought we knew what we were getting into when we wrote up OSTK as a long idea less than two months ago. Since that time, shares have crashed more than (-50%) – obviously we made some...

READ MORE >

OSTK: With the “Byrne” Overhang Eliminated and a Plethora of Potential Positive Catalysts Ahead, Time to Go Long

September 19th, 2019

Before we get into the issue of the day, we wanted to provide some perspective on how we’re thinking about OSTK based on a similar investment idea we introduced roughly 8-years ago.  The...

READ MORE >

Z/ZG: How Do You Spell Valuation Compression? “I-N-V-E-N-T-O-R-Y V-A-L-U-A-T-I-O-N A-D-J-U-S-T-M-E-N-T”; Other Key...

August 8th, 2019

“And I just wanted to talk about my attitude or our attitude toward iBuying. As we tried to make clear over the past 6 months, the demand is real and it's very strong. So we are quite...

READ MORE >

Z/ZG: Set an Insanely Low Bar, Step Over It, Celebrate… Really Though, In the Context of a 4-5 Year “Scorched...

May 10th, 2019

“Look, look, you don't have to be any good. I mean all you have to do is have someone less good along with you. That's the whole theory behind fishing” Murdock, Dwight...

READ MORE >

Z/ZG: Things You Didn’t Hear on the Conf. Call – The iBuyer Biz as “Table Stakes”, the Keller Williams Threat,...

February 22nd, 2019

“I still think that the target model that we've laid out, dating all the way back to the IPO, and again, at the Investor Day a couple of weeks ago, is the right margin framework for the...

READ MORE >

Z/ZG: Who Could Have Predicted…. The Treacherous Transition from Quantity to Quality Crushes Another Lead Generation...

November 7th, 2018

In our note following Zillow’s 2Q18 results we wrote the following about the changes to how leads are delivered for the company’s Premier Agent advertising program (subsequently dubbed PA...

READ MORE >

Z/ZG: A Closer Look at the Homes Division - Is Profitability Really the Goal? Not When You Sell Homes at a 3-4% Premium...

August 17th, 2018

“At this point, we're clearly bias towards scale over profitability, but because we've been selling the houses so much faster than we anticipated, the return on equity has been better...

READ MORE >

Z/ZG: There Must Be a Pony in There Somewhere, An Ode to Zillow’s “Napkin Math” as the Company Attempts to Evolve...

August 7th, 2018

“Then he clambered to the top of the pile, dropped to his knees, and began gleefully digging out scoop after scoop with his bare hands. 'What do you think you're doing?' the...

READ MORE >

Z/ZG: Where’s George Carlin When You Need Him? New York State Allegedly Says No to the Premier Agent Program for...

May 8th, 2018

“About this time, someone is telling you to get on the plane. "Get on the plane. Get on the plane." I say….. I'm getting IN the plane! IN the plane! Let Evil Knievel get ON...

READ MORE >

Z/ZG: What Did Zillow Really Announce? The Company’s Decision To Start Buying Homes Isn’t the Most Important...

April 13th, 2018

With management’s usual flair for the dramatic and acute sense of self-importance, Zillow announced yesterday that it plans to buy and sell homes on the open market through expansion of the...

READ MORE >

Z/ZG: Listen to Management Carefully and You’ll Hear All You Need to Know About the Structural, Secular, and...

February 9th, 2018

“Somethin' ain't right. Gonna get myself, I'm gonna get myself Gonna get myself connected I ain't gonna go blind For the light which is reflected I see through...

READ MORE >

Scroll to load more

Current Ideas

EXPI

SELL/SHORT

$4

HUSQ.B

SELL

$50

UFPI

SELL/SHORT

$45

TREX

SHORT

$18

PRDO

SELL/SHORT

$5

STRA

SELL/SHORT

$42

CWH

LONG

$75

OSTK

LONG

$128

CM

SELL/SHORT

$50

RY

SELL/SHORT

$50

ARC

LONG

$5.50

AYI

SHORT

$50

BIG

SHORT

$28

WWE

LONG

$65

XOXO

LONG

$37

RLGY

PAIR TRADE

$10

RDFN

PAIR TRADE

$30

BCO

LONG

$35

ING.PA

SHORT

$35

TRUP

SELL/SHORT

$10

CTC

SHORT

$101

ATGE

SHORT

$15

HCG.TO

SHORT

$0

RON.TO

SHORT

$9

ESI

SHORT

$0

BGG

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

TTC

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

Z

SHORT

$14.00

NA.TO

SHORT

$22

ZU

SHORT

$15

TRLA

SHORT

$20

MCRS

SHORT

$31

APOL

SHORT

$35

OPEN

SHORT

$30

KNL

PAIR - LONG KNL/SHORT MLHR

25%

CSGP

SHORT

$100

GCA

LONG

$8

IPSU

LONG

$20

MLHR

SHORT

$22

LOOP

PAIR - LONG CSGP/SHORT LOOP

40%

THQI

LONG

$35

WPO

SHORT

$275

COCO

SHORT

$0

HNI

SIG

RGR