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ESI: More Correspondence with the SEC, but It’s not related to the Off-Balance Sheet Treatment of PEAKS

September 25th, 2012

More Correspondence with the SEC….We just wanted to flag a round of correspondence between ESI and the SEC that occurred in July and August of this year.  The letters were just released through the SEC’s...

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COCO: Another Log on the “Regulatory Fire”

September 18th, 2012

“The investment thesis for us is pretty straightforward, as I said earlier, career-oriented, that's a big deal to us. I mean, we're teaching students how to become prepared for their first job. Not only do we teach them and get them through the process, we also spend a...

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MCRS: “Square”ly in the Scope of the Mobile Payments and iOS Revolutions, Time to Get Short

August 23rd, 2012

“I just charge additional license fees for these iPad implementations, so it actually drives business”Peter Rodgers, EVP Investor Relations and Business Development MICROS Systems, Inc.That’s it, nothing to see here....

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COCO: All Available Levers Pulled, The Focus Should Increasingly Turn to COCO’s Liquidity and Leverage

August 20th, 2012

After gapping down earlier in the morning, COCO shares rallied over the course of the day to end down only 1% following 4Q12 results and management commentary that should create significant cause for concern among...

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BGG/TTC: Drought Aside, Earnings Visibility and FCF Prospects Are Improving Rapidly for BGG

August 9th, 2012

BGG shares traded off modestly today following 4Q12 results and initial FY13 guidance that were both below consensus expectations.  Two factors weighed on the company’s 2Q12 and significantly dampened the company’s FY13...

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Z: All About the Metrics

August 8th, 2012

Zillow shares traded off sharply after hours yesterday following earnings results that were good, but perhaps not strong enough relative to “whisper numbers”.  Additionally, the company filed a shelf offering which included the option for significant stock holders to sell as much as 3.6MM...

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THQI: Waiting on Darksiders…

August 7th, 2012

Realistically THQI’s 1Q13 results were more or less a side show.  The company did not release any new games in the quarter, so the focus of the earnings call was primarily on THQI’s release slate and efforts to reposition itself in the marketplace.  In one week, THQI will release...

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WPO: The Song Remains the Same, Lowering Estimates to Reflect Weakening Prospects for Kaplan

August 3rd, 2012

In many respects, WPO’s 2Q12 earnings results represent a complete validation of our short thesis on the stock.  At a time when it appears most bulls on the stock own it based on some theoretical breakup value, two...

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OPEN: Another OPEX Driven Beat Aside, the Signposts of Growth Maturation and Competitive Pressures Continue to Pile Up

August 3rd, 2012

With OPEN shares down 24% in the past month and now trading at what some might think is an attractive 18.7x consensus EPS for 2013 we shouldn’t be completely surprised by the strength in the stock...

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WWE: Our Revised Estimates, The Catalysts for WWE for the Next 6-Months

August 2nd, 2012

WWE’s 2Q12 results were more or less inline with expectations.  Based on the strong buy rate for Wrestlemania 28 and subsequent PPV events, it’s clear that WWE’s creative cycle has turned a corner.  Over time we expect this to lead to...

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WWE: Positive Developments Continue to Be Overlooked in Light of the Ongoing Uncertainty Surrounding the WWE Network

August 1st, 2012

It has been a grueling slog for WWE shareholders over the past 6-9 months.  Over the past 3-4 months the company crushed expectations for 1Q12, delivered the highest selling Wrestlemania in history,...

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ESI: Where Did the Cash Go? ESI’s Leverage Looms Large as Prospective FCF Generation Dwindles, Reducing Target to $30

July 26th, 2012

Fundamentals Are Breaking Down…. And Liquidity Now Becomes a Real ConcernFor some the 2Q12 earnings season will be remembered as the quarter in which the publicly traded for-profit postsecondary...

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For-Profit EDU: Checks with Privately Held Institutions Suggest Trends Are Not Getting Better; Be Wary of the 150%...

July 24th, 2012

Make no mistake, as we navigate earnings season in the for-profit education space over the next 2-3 weeks, the poor operating results from DeVry will look like an accurate gauge of the operating...

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For-Profit EDU: The CFPB Frames the Private Student Lending Industry

July 20th, 2012

Early this morning, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) released its long awaited report on the Private Student Loan (PSL) industry.  The report provides a broad overview of the characteristics of the private student loan market for the...

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My Interview in Barron's

July 1st, 2012

In case you missed it, I recently had the opportunity to speak with Leslie Norton of Barron's about PAA Research, our approach to idea generation, and some of our latest thoughts on for-profit education, payment processing and OPEN, Z, BGG, and TTC.  You can find the full interview HERE.

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Current Ideas

EXPI

SELL/SHORT

$4

HUSQ.B

SELL

$50

UFPI

SELL/SHORT

$45

TREX

SHORT

$18

PRDO

SELL/SHORT

$5

STRA

SELL/SHORT

$42

CWH

LONG

$75

OSTK

LONG

$128

CM

SELL/SHORT

$50

RY

SELL/SHORT

$50

ARC

LONG

$5.50

AYI

SHORT

$50

BIG

SHORT

$28

WWE

LONG

$65

XOXO

LONG

$37

RLGY

PAIR TRADE

$10

RDFN

PAIR TRADE

$30

BCO

LONG

$35

ING.PA

SHORT

$35

TRUP

SELL/SHORT

$10

CTC

SHORT

$101

ATGE

SHORT

$15

HCG.TO

SHORT

$0

RON.TO

SHORT

$9

ESI

SHORT

$0

BGG

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

TTC

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

Z

SHORT

$14.00

NA.TO

SHORT

$22

ZU

SHORT

$15

TRLA

SHORT

$20

MCRS

SHORT

$31

APOL

SHORT

$35

OPEN

SHORT

$30

KNL

PAIR - LONG KNL/SHORT MLHR

25%

CSGP

SHORT

$100

GCA

LONG

$8

IPSU

LONG

$20

MLHR

SHORT

$22

LOOP

PAIR - LONG CSGP/SHORT LOOP

40%

THQI

LONG

$35

WPO

SHORT

$275

COCO

SHORT

$0

HNI

SIG

RGR