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ESI: After The Worst Fall Term Enrollment Intake in ESI’s History, It’s Clear the Emperor Has No Clothes, Taking...

October 25th, 2012

Losing Altitude and Gaining Speed…..At the simplest level, here are the five things that you need to know about ESI following the company’s 3Q12 earnings release and fall term enrollment...

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For-Profit EDU: Checks with Privately Held Institutions Suggest We’re On the Cusp of Yet Another Round of Meaningful...

October 15th, 2012

On Tuesday, October 16th APOL will kick-start the earnings season in the for-profit postsecondary education sector.  Investor expectations for the company’s results, particularly surrounding new...

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ESI: More Correspondence with the SEC, but It’s not related to the Off-Balance Sheet Treatment of PEAKS

September 25th, 2012

More Correspondence with the SEC….We just wanted to flag a round of correspondence between ESI and the SEC that occurred in July and August of this year.  The letters were just released through the SEC’s...

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ESI: Where Did the Cash Go? ESI’s Leverage Looms Large as Prospective FCF Generation Dwindles, Reducing Target to $30

July 26th, 2012

Fundamentals Are Breaking Down…. And Liquidity Now Becomes a Real ConcernFor some the 2Q12 earnings season will be remembered as the quarter in which the publicly traded for-profit postsecondary...

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For-Profit EDU: Checks with Privately Held Institutions Suggest Trends Are Not Getting Better; Be Wary of the 150%...

July 24th, 2012

Make no mistake, as we navigate earnings season in the for-profit education space over the next 2-3 weeks, the poor operating results from DeVry will look like an accurate gauge of the operating...

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For-Profit EDU: The CFPB Frames the Private Student Lending Industry

July 20th, 2012

Early this morning, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) released its long awaited report on the Private Student Loan (PSL) industry.  The report provides a broad overview of the characteristics of the private student loan market for the...

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My Interview in Barron's

July 1st, 2012

In case you missed it, I recently had the opportunity to speak with Leslie Norton of Barron's about PAA Research, our approach to idea generation, and some of our latest thoughts on for-profit education, payment processing and OPEN, Z, BGG, and TTC.  You can find the full interview HERE.

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For-Profit EDU: Another Log on the Fire? The Pell Grant Party Might Be Over

June 20th, 2012

There is little doubt that the for-profit postsecondary education sector has been under siege for the past 2-3 years.  Most stocks in the space are trading at or near their 52-week lows and at valuations most investors and management teams in...

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ESI: Running Out of Bullets? The EPS Beat Means Little in the Context of Weakening Student Metrics and Evaporating FCF

April 26th, 2012

It’s True They Did Beat, But….ESI reported 1Q12 revenue and EPS results that were significantly better than consensus estimates.  Despite the overall outperformance, there are CLEAR signs now that...

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For-Profit EDU: As Some Try to Celebrate “Less Worse” Metrics, Starts Deteriorate and a Fundamental Inflection...

April 24th, 2012

Today the 1Q12 earnings season in the for-profit postsecondary education sector kicks off in earnest.  Thus far, many of the 12 issues that we thought would matter most this year have weighed...

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ESI: Why Did ESI Get a New Credit Facility? Revisiting Our Daisy Chain of Events

March 28th, 2012

If we have learned anything over the past 12 years in which we have been following ESI as analysts and investors it is this: never underestimate the guile of the company’s management team, particularly when it comes to crafting...

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ESI: 4Q11 EPS Beat Belies Significant Operational Red Flags

January 26th, 2012

It’s True They Did Beat, But….ESI reported 4Q11 revenue and EPS results that were significantly better than consensus estimates.  Despite the overall outperformance, many of the critical underlying metrics the company reported were weak and/or should...

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For-Profit EDU: Will Winter Term/4Q11 Results Represent an Inflection Point for the Industry? Checks with Private...

January 25th, 2012

Yesterday we published a lengthy report that outlined the 12 issues that we think will have the greatest impact on the enrollment, revenue, EPS and stock sentiment of the publicly traded for-profit...

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For-Profit EDU: As the Focus Turns To “Brand and Price”, The 12 Issues That Will Matter Most in For-Profit...

January 24th, 2012

Perhaps it happens every year, but the relative outperformance of last year’s losers compared to the prior year’s winners has been particularly pronounced thus far in 2012.  The 25 worst...

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Current Ideas

EXPI

SELL/SHORT

$4

HUSQ.B

SELL

$50

UFPI

SELL/SHORT

$45

TREX

SHORT

$18

PRDO

SELL/SHORT

$5

STRA

SELL/SHORT

$42

CWH

LONG

$75

OSTK

LONG

$128

CM

SELL/SHORT

$50

RY

SELL/SHORT

$50

ARC

LONG

$5.50

AYI

SHORT

$50

BIG

SHORT

$28

WWE

LONG

$65

XOXO

LONG

$37

RLGY

PAIR TRADE

$10

RDFN

PAIR TRADE

$30

BCO

LONG

$35

ING.PA

SHORT

$35

TRUP

SELL/SHORT

$10

CTC

SHORT

$101

ATGE

SHORT

$15

HCG.TO

SHORT

$0

RON.TO

SHORT

$9

ESI

SHORT

$0

BGG

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

TTC

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

Z

SHORT

$14.00

NA.TO

SHORT

$22

ZU

SHORT

$15

TRLA

SHORT

$20

MCRS

SHORT

$31

APOL

SHORT

$35

OPEN

SHORT

$30

KNL

PAIR - LONG KNL/SHORT MLHR

25%

CSGP

SHORT

$100

GCA

LONG

$8

IPSU

LONG

$20

MLHR

SHORT

$22

LOOP

PAIR - LONG CSGP/SHORT LOOP

40%

THQI

LONG

$35

WPO

SHORT

$275

COCO

SHORT

$0

HNI

SIG

RGR