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BGG/TTC: BGG, “Shooting Star” Price Action Aside, Stock Appears Poised for Gains

October 20th, 2011

As we anticipated, BGG reported 1Q12 results that were well above consensus expectations.  The magnitude of revenue upside was larger than we expected, but the company’s loss per share was roughly inline with our forecast. ...

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BGG/TTC: BGG, Looking for an Irene Based Beat for 1Q12

October 19th, 2011

The performance of BGG shares this year have been nothing short of “head scratching”.  We recognize that the spring/summer selling season for outdoor power equipment proved to be a disappointment and the company’s initial guidance for FY12 was below our...

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TTC: Now Comes the Hard Part, Still Favor Long BGG/Short TTC

August 18th, 2011

For the first time in a long time, TTC reported quarterly results that fell short of expectations.  While some investment firms and analysts are willing to look past the company’s “product rework” expense in the quarter as a “one-time” item, we...

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BGG/TTC: BGG, What the Market Is (Or Isn’t) Telling Us About Value

August 11th, 2011

Admittedly, BGG’s 4Q11 results and initial FY12 EPS guidance were well below our expectations. Our channel checks indicated that sell through of outdoor power equipment weakened from 1Q11 to 2Q11 and that trends in June and July were modestly worse...

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BGG/TTC: BGG 4Q11 Preview, Highlights from Proprietary Outdoor Power Equipment Dealer Survey, Still Favor Long...

August 10th, 2011

We have been recommending a pair trade: long BGG/short TTC for approximately 9-12 months.  Thus far the trade has not been a winner, generating a modest (-3.0%) loss compared to a relatively healthy...

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BGG: 3Q11 Yields a Solid Beat, Mgmt. Sets a Low Bar for the Rest of the Fiscal Year

April 28th, 2011

BGG shares rallied modestly today, despite the significant outperformance posted by the company on both the top and bottomline for 3Q11. We attribute the tepid stock price response to the relatively muted outlook for 4Q11 provided by...

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BGG/TTC: Survey Results from Outdoor Power Equipment Dealers Adds Credence to Our Long BGG/Short TTC Pair Trade

April 27th, 2011

We have been recommending a pair trade: long BGG/short TTC for approximately 6-9 months.  Thus far the trade has not been a winner, generating a modest gain 1.5% compared to a robust 26.5% increase for the...

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TTC: Near Term Earnings Upside Appears Priced In, Still Favor Long BGG/Short TTC

February 17th, 2011

TTC reported 1Q11 results today that were well above consensus expectations.  You can read the full release here.  Despite the large upside delivered for 1Q11, the upward revision to FY11 guidance, and communication of a FY14 operating...

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BGG: 2Q11 Earnings Not As Impressive As Headline Results Suggest, Waiting for Signs of Spring

January 28th, 2011

BGG reported 2Q11 results that we would characterize as far less impressive as the headline numbers would suggest.  In general, it appears that relatively strong demand in Australia and Asia combined with slightly earlier...

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BGG: Survey Results from Outdoor Power Equipment Dealers and 2Q11 Preview

January 26th, 2011

We have been recommending a pair trade: long BGG/short TTC for approximately three months.  Thus far the trade has not been a winner, generating a modest loss (-0.3%) compared to a whopping 21.3% gain for the S&P 500.  As a reminder, the...

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BGG: Channel Sell Through Slowed Over Past 3-Months, but Earnings Upside for the Quarter Still Seems Likely

October 19th, 2010

We have been recommending a pair trade: long BGG/short TTC for approximately three months.  Thus far the trade has not been a winner, generating a (-4.7%) return compared to a 9.4% gain for the S&P 500.  As...

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TTC: Large 3Q10 Beat As Expected, Guides Inline, Headwinds Should Start to Emerge in FY11, Still Favor Long BGG/Short...

August 19th, 2010

TTC reported strong 3Q10 result this morning,  you can read the full release here.  On the heels of BGG's blow-out numbers, it should come as no surprise that TTC delivered significant upside to...

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BGG: Replacement Driven Demand, Monster FCF Highlight Strong 4Q10, Still Favor Long BGG, Short TTC

August 12th, 2010

We recently introduced a pair trade idea: long BGG/short TTC.  Thus far the trade has returned 2.1% compared to a 2.3% gain for the S&P 500.  We still think the pair trade has the potential to generate a total...

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Closing out BGG and TTC Shorts with 21.2% and 7.3% Gains, Going Long BGG Against Short Position in TTC

July 19th, 2010

Approximately three months ago we introduced two short ideas in the outdoor power equipment space: BGG and TTC.  Since that time shares of BGG have sold off 21.2%, while those of TTC have declined 7.3% compared to a...

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BGG: Crushes 3Q10 EPS Expectations, but Guides Lower - Four Reasons Why We Think The Stock Can Still See Downside

April 22nd, 2010

We recently introduced two short ideas: TTC and BGG.  Both are leading manufacturers in the outdoor power equipment market.  Our thesis on the two companies was as follows: Our channel checks indicated...

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Time to Grab the "Bull" by the Horns, Getting Short TTC and BGG

April 19th, 2010

The outdoor power equipment sector is an industry whose revenue growth trends have historically been driven by three primary factors: home sales, general consumer confidence, and weather.  It should come as no surprise given these factors that unit sales...

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A View From Outdoor Power Equipment Dealers – Waiting on Weather…

March 12th, 2010

This report was originally published on 1/13/10.Over the past 9-months we have twice introduced the shares of BGG (18.3 ↓0.27%) as a short sale candidate: once in front of the company’s 3Q09 results and the second time in advance of Briggs...

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PAA Research SMid Cap Portfolio Update, Closing Out BGG Short Trade Idea with a 7.4% Gain

March 11th, 2010

This report was originally published on 11/2/09.We wanted to provide you with an update on the performance of our SMid Cap portfolio, which we introduced on 9/3/09.  You can find our initial report here.  As a reminder this is...

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It’s Still Too Early for BGG, Getting Short Into Earnings as a Trading Call

March 10th, 2010

This report was originally published 10/19/09.One of the first investment ideas we introduced on this site was a short-term trading call onBriggs and Stratton (BGG 18.42 ↓0.65%).  You can read our original report here.  At that time we...

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Briggs and Stratton’s (BGG) 3Q09 – The “Holy Trinity” for Shorts? A Miss, Reduced Guidance and a Reduced...

March 6th, 2010

This report was originally published on 4/16/09.BGG reported 3Q09 results this AM and it appears that our expectations and thesis were right on point. Revenues and EPS of $673.8 million and $0.51,...

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One for You Traders Out There: Short BGG Into Earnings (this Thursday)

March 6th, 2010

This report was originally published 4/14/09BGG’s stock has increased 18% over the past month, which we attribute to the following: Increased investor appetite to own cyclicals, growing investor anticipation that a bottom in housing could be...

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Current Ideas

HCG.TO

SHORT

$0

AYI

SHORT

$129

RON.TO

SHORT

$9

BIG

SHORT

$28

ESI

SHORT

$0

DV

SHORT

$15

BGG

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

TTC

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

Z

SHORT

$14.00

NA.TO

SHORT

$22

ING.PA

SHORT

$35

ZU

SHORT

$15

TRLA

SHORT

$20

MCRS

SHORT

$31

APOL

SHORT

$35

OPEN

SHORT

$30

BCO

LONG

$35

WWE

LONG

$25

KNL

PAIR - LONG KNL/SHORT MLHR

25%

XOXO

LONG

$20

CSGP

SHORT

$100

GCA

LONG

$8

IPSU

LONG

$20

MLHR

SHORT

$22

ARC

LONG

$12.50

LOOP

PAIR - LONG CSGP/SHORT LOOP

40%

THQI

LONG

$35

WPO

SHORT

$275

COCO

SHORT

$0

HNI

SIG

RGR