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BGG/TTC: Housing, Operating Efficiency, and FCF Improvements Indicate BGG Might Finally Flex Its Earnings Muscles

October 18th, 2012

The Spring/Summer 2012 selling season will not be remembered fondly by participants in the outdoor power equipment marketplace.  Severe drought through much of the US and ongoing economic in weakness led...

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BGG/TTC: Drought Aside, Earnings Visibility and FCF Prospects Are Improving Rapidly for BGG

August 9th, 2012

BGG shares traded off modestly today following 4Q12 results and initial FY13 guidance that were both below consensus expectations.  Two factors weighed on the company’s 2Q12 and significantly dampened the company’s FY13...

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My Interview in Barron's

July 1st, 2012

In case you missed it, I recently had the opportunity to speak with Leslie Norton of Barron's about PAA Research, our approach to idea generation, and some of our latest thoughts on for-profit education, payment processing and OPEN, Z, BGG, and TTC.  You can find the full interview HERE.

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BGG/TTC: BGG, This Needed to Happen, Now the Stock Becomes Even More Compelling

January 27th, 2012

Admittedly, we did not expect something like this.  Suffice it to say BGG’s 2Q12 earnings results and conference call included a number of unexpected outcomes both operationally and strategically.  Obviously the big news of the day was...

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BGG/TTC: BGG 2Q12 Preview, Highlights from Proprietary Outdoor Power Equipment Dealer Survey, Still Favor Long...

January 25th, 2012

If there has been any sector that has served as the backbone of the recent rally in the market it has been the homebuilders.  Most of the largest publicly traded homebuilders have witnessed stock...

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BGG/TTC: BGG, “Shooting Star” Price Action Aside, Stock Appears Poised for Gains

October 20th, 2011

As we anticipated, BGG reported 1Q12 results that were well above consensus expectations.  The magnitude of revenue upside was larger than we expected, but the company’s loss per share was roughly inline with our forecast. ...

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BGG/TTC: BGG, Looking for an Irene Based Beat for 1Q12

October 19th, 2011

The performance of BGG shares this year have been nothing short of “head scratching”.  We recognize that the spring/summer selling season for outdoor power equipment proved to be a disappointment and the company’s initial guidance for FY12 was below our...

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TTC: Now Comes the Hard Part, Still Favor Long BGG/Short TTC

August 18th, 2011

For the first time in a long time, TTC reported quarterly results that fell short of expectations.  While some investment firms and analysts are willing to look past the company’s “product rework” expense in the quarter as a “one-time” item, we...

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BGG/TTC: BGG, What the Market Is (Or Isn’t) Telling Us About Value

August 11th, 2011

Admittedly, BGG’s 4Q11 results and initial FY12 EPS guidance were well below our expectations. Our channel checks indicated that sell through of outdoor power equipment weakened from 1Q11 to 2Q11 and that trends in June and July were modestly worse...

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BGG/TTC: BGG 4Q11 Preview, Highlights from Proprietary Outdoor Power Equipment Dealer Survey, Still Favor Long...

August 10th, 2011

We have been recommending a pair trade: long BGG/short TTC for approximately 9-12 months.  Thus far the trade has not been a winner, generating a modest (-3.0%) loss compared to a relatively healthy...

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Current Ideas

CTC

SHORT

$101

ATGE

SHORT

$15

AYI

SHORT

$108

HCG.TO

SHORT

$0

RON.TO

SHORT

$9

BIG

SHORT

$28

ESI

SHORT

$0

BGG

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

TTC

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

Z

SHORT

$14.00

NA.TO

SHORT

$22

ING.PA

SHORT

$35

ZU

SHORT

$15

TRLA

SHORT

$20

MCRS

SHORT

$31

APOL

SHORT

$35

OPEN

SHORT

$30

BCO

LONG

$35

WWE

LONG

$25

KNL

PAIR - LONG KNL/SHORT MLHR

25%

XOXO

LONG

$20

CSGP

SHORT

$100

GCA

LONG

$8

IPSU

LONG

$20

MLHR

SHORT

$22

ARC

LONG

$12.50

LOOP

PAIR - LONG CSGP/SHORT LOOP

40%

THQI

LONG

$35

WPO

SHORT

$275

COCO

SHORT

$0

HNI

SIG

RGR