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NA.TO: Hope Is Not a Risk Management Strategy

February 24th, 2016

"So let's talk about oil and gas. So, earlier Marianne mentioned our intention to increase our reserves for 2016 to reflect current market fundamentals. So, at the end of 2015 for the Commercial Bank, we held a 6% allowance as part of that effort we are going to – we...

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NA.TO: Taking a Closer Look at NA’s Commercial Loan Book as the Pitfalls of Recency Bias Come Front and Center;...

January 13th, 2016

Do you remember the late 1980’s and early 1990’s in Canada? It was a dark period in the country’s economic history as a combination of a collapse in crude oil prices in the mid-1980’s,...

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NA.TO/HCG.TO: Four Things I Learned in the Past Week about Canadian Financial Institutions – Rhetoric vs. Reality

December 7th, 2015

We spent much of last week reading, listening, and analyzing the slew of earnings releases, financial supplements, and conference calls from the largest banks across Canada.  Had we known the results and...

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Canadian Housing: The Demographic Crisis No One Seems to Talk About

October 5th, 2015

Let’s play a little game called “guess the country with a pending demographic crisis”. Here are some hints to start out with, for this country:   1) the median age has increased from 32.9 in 1990 to 40.5 in 2015, 2) the percentage of population...

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NA.TO: Surprising Capital Raise Could Spook Investors, It Might Not Be the Last…

October 1st, 2015

After the close, National Bank of Canada announced that it plans to raise $300MM through a common equity offering of 7.2MM shares at a price of $41.90. The deal is “bought” and is expected to close on 10/9/15.  Considering that much...

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Canadian Housing: The Pressure Point – MIC’s and Private Mortgages Have Become the Central Lynchpin Holding Up the...

July 16th, 2015

“The vulnerability associated with household indebtedness remains important and is edging higher, owing to an increase in the level of household debt and the ongoing negative impact on incomes from...

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NA.TO/HCG.TO/RON.TO: The Canadian Housing Market - Dancing on the Edge of a Razor Blade, Time to Get Short

March 10th, 2015

“Get busy with the facts, No zodiacs or almanacs, No maniacs in polyester slacks, Just the facts…. The small gets big, It’s a rig…. You better run homeboy, A fact’s a fact… Roll the...

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Current Ideas

EXPI

SELL/SHORT

$4

HUSQ.B

SELL

$50

UFPI

SELL/SHORT

$45

TREX

SHORT

$18

PRDO

SELL/SHORT

$5

STRA

SELL/SHORT

$42

CWH

LONG

$75

OSTK

LONG

$128

CM

SELL/SHORT

$50

RY

SELL/SHORT

$50

ARC

LONG

$5.50

AYI

SHORT

$50

BIG

SHORT

$28

WWE

LONG

$65

XOXO

LONG

$37

RLGY

PAIR TRADE

$10

RDFN

PAIR TRADE

$30

BCO

LONG

$35

ING.PA

SHORT

$35

TRUP

SELL/SHORT

$10

CTC

SHORT

$101

ATGE

SHORT

$15

HCG.TO

SHORT

$0

RON.TO

SHORT

$9

ESI

SHORT

$0

BGG

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

TTC

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

Z

SHORT

$14.00

NA.TO

SHORT

$22

ZU

SHORT

$15

TRLA

SHORT

$20

MCRS

SHORT

$31

APOL

SHORT

$35

OPEN

SHORT

$30

KNL

PAIR - LONG KNL/SHORT MLHR

25%

CSGP

SHORT

$100

GCA

LONG

$8

IPSU

LONG

$20

MLHR

SHORT

$22

LOOP

PAIR - LONG CSGP/SHORT LOOP

40%

THQI

LONG

$35

WPO

SHORT

$275

COCO

SHORT

$0

HNI

SIG

RGR