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Z: Five Questions We’re Thinking about This Week, Including: Do Internet Leads in Real Estate Convert at Less than 1%?

March 23rd, 2015

2015 is shaping up to be an incredibly challenging year for Zillow.  The ground is shifting rapidly in the residential real estate space as legacy brokerage firms and media companies (think News...

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Z: Trulia 10-K Observations – Rapid Deceleration in Growth Is the Headline

March 2nd, 2015

This morning Trulia filed its 2014 10-K.  As you might remember, on the conference call discussing Zillow’s 4Q14 earnings and the closing of the acquisition management was unwilling to provide much detail on Trulia’s 4Q14 financial...

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Z: Pricing Looks to be the Lever of Last Resort; Plenty of Potential Negative Catalysts on the Horizon

February 18th, 2015

As long time followers of PAA Research know, we have a fair amount of experience dealing with heavily shorted stocks.  This is not our first rodeo with a stock that experiences a vicious rally that seems to have been...

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TRLA: Closing Out TRLA Short Idea with (-62.3%) Loss, 0.1% Alpha Generation, Z Remains Our Top Short Idea

February 17th, 2015

We are closing out our TRLA short idea with a (-62.3%) loss following the company's acquisition by Zillow.  Many, if not most elements of our short thesis on TRLA did indeed play out: in almost every way the...

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CSGP: Throwing the Marketing Gauntlet Down in Rentals Could Have Negative Implications for Everyone, Including CSGP and...

February 17th, 2015

“So hold on tight, with all your might… Cause MC's [market caps] crumble when we rumble… Cause in this battle, I’m takin no prisoners, I’m slayin MC's right on the...

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Z/TRLA: Beware the “tions” of 2015, Especially Those Related to Project Upstream

January 29th, 2015

“I’m wide awake. I’m wide awake. Wide awake. I’m not sleeping. Oh, no, no, no….. If I could, you know I would. If I could, I would. Let it go….” U2, “Bad”, The Unforgettable Fire In this wonderful song...

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Z: Cuts to Featured Listings for Premier Agents Suggest Zillow’s Advertising Inventory Problems Could Be Escalating...

September 5th, 2014

Approximately two months ago we published a report backed by a review of more than 2,000 listings in 50+ markets on Zillow (“Z: Look at the Listings, the Zillow Ecosystem Might Not Be What You...

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Z: When You’re Trying to Change the Narrative Why Let the Details Get in the Way of a Good Story - The Truth about...

August 6th, 2014

Now it’s starting to make sense.  Now we understand why Zillow agreed to pay $3.5B for a company which by almost every measure is 2nd or 3rd rate in the listings aggregation space.  Now we are...

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Z/TRLA: What Is and What Might Never Be – Views from 400 Agents on Zillow, Trulia, and Housing

July 24th, 2014

We recognize that there are rumors in the market that Zillow could be in talks to acquire Trulia.  We will have more extensive comments shortly, but we wanted to provide you with some insight on what the agent community...

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Z: Look at the Listings, the Zillow Ecosystem Might Not Be What You Think It Is – the Fallacies of the Bull Case

June 30th, 2014

“You can observe a lot by watching”-          Yogi BerraAs Zillow shares climb to levels we previously never thought possible (amazingly in the absence of any material new news) we have spent...

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Z: Is Zillow Becoming a Pricing Story? That’s Not Necessarily a Good Thing

May 8th, 2014

Was it good enough? Time and time again that was the question we were attempting to answer in our conversations with investors after Zillow reported 1Q14 results and provided initial 2Q14 guidance yesterday.  The trading action after hours...

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Z: Eight (Reasons) Is Enough, Time to Get Short with a Price Objective of $55

April 8th, 2014

In the context of what has transpired in the broader Internet space over the past two weeks, Zillow shareholders have to be feeling pretty good about themselves, or at the very least quite fortunate.  After all, the 8-10% sell-off in Z...

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TRLA: They Had No Choice, Now Come the Tough Questions

February 14th, 2014

Well, now we know why…. In early December, TRLA announced a convertible notes offering which was eventually upsized to $200 million.  The notes convert at $35.93/share, or roughly 2% below where TRLA shares closed yesterday.  The timing of the notes offering...

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TRLA: Share Losses Have Accelerated, How Will the Company Respond?

February 12th, 2014

It all sounds so intoxicating doesn’t it? To company management (and presumably bulls on the stock) Trulia is a leading rapidly growing mobile based residential real estate search platform integrated with a cloud based CRM system.  How many investor...

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TRLA: A Storm Is Brewing Between Brokers and MLS’s, Assessing the Potential Collateral Damage for TRLA and Z

October 10th, 2013

“There’s something brewing here that really makes me think that the people in this room need to rethink their role.  Some of you[MLS representatives]  may be in denial. You don’t know that there’s a...

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Current Ideas

EXPI

SELL/SHORT

$4

HUSQ.B

SELL

$50

UFPI

SELL/SHORT

$45

TREX

SHORT

$18

PRDO

SELL/SHORT

$5

STRA

SELL/SHORT

$42

CWH

LONG

$75

OSTK

LONG

$128

CM

SELL/SHORT

$50

RY

SELL/SHORT

$50

ARC

LONG

$5.50

AYI

SHORT

$50

BIG

SHORT

$28

WWE

LONG

$65

XOXO

LONG

$37

RLGY

PAIR TRADE

$10

RDFN

PAIR TRADE

$30

BCO

LONG

$35

ING.PA

SHORT

$35

TRUP

SELL/SHORT

$10

CTC

SHORT

$101

ATGE

SHORT

$15

HCG.TO

SHORT

$0

RON.TO

SHORT

$9

ESI

SHORT

$0

BGG

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

TTC

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

Z

SHORT

$14.00

NA.TO

SHORT

$22

ZU

SHORT

$15

TRLA

SHORT

$20

MCRS

SHORT

$31

APOL

SHORT

$35

OPEN

SHORT

$30

KNL

PAIR - LONG KNL/SHORT MLHR

25%

CSGP

SHORT

$100

GCA

LONG

$8

IPSU

LONG

$20

MLHR

SHORT

$22

LOOP

PAIR - LONG CSGP/SHORT LOOP

40%

THQI

LONG

$35

WPO

SHORT

$275

COCO

SHORT

$0

HNI

SIG

RGR