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EXPI/HOUS/RDFN/RMAX/Z/ZG/CSGP/DOUG/COMP: Winners and Losers From the Proposed NAR Settlement; 10 Things That WILL...

March 21st, 2024

Last Friday was a rough trading day in the residential real estate services space for ardent supporters of the efficient market hypothesis. After all, the original case against the National...

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Z/ZG: Bob Seger and the Yield Curve – When the Cyclical Is Confused as the Secular

February 20th, 2020

“And I guess I lost my way There were oh so many roads I was living to run and running to live Never worried about paying or even how much I owed” Seger, Bob. “Against the Wind”. Against the Wind....

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Z/ZG: How Do You Spell Valuation Compression? “I-N-V-E-N-T-O-R-Y V-A-L-U-A-T-I-O-N A-D-J-U-S-T-M-E-N-T”; Other Key...

August 8th, 2019

“And I just wanted to talk about my attitude or our attitude toward iBuying. As we tried to make clear over the past 6 months, the demand is real and it's very strong. So we are quite...

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Z/ZG: Set an Insanely Low Bar, Step Over It, Celebrate… Really Though, In the Context of a 4-5 Year “Scorched...

May 10th, 2019

“Look, look, you don't have to be any good. I mean all you have to do is have someone less good along with you. That's the whole theory behind fishing” Murdock, Dwight...

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Z/ZG: Things You Didn’t Hear on the Conf. Call – The iBuyer Biz as “Table Stakes”, the Keller Williams Threat,...

February 22nd, 2019

“I still think that the target model that we've laid out, dating all the way back to the IPO, and again, at the Investor Day a couple of weeks ago, is the right margin framework for the...

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Z/ZG: Who Could Have Predicted…. The Treacherous Transition from Quantity to Quality Crushes Another Lead Generation...

November 7th, 2018

In our note following Zillow’s 2Q18 results we wrote the following about the changes to how leads are delivered for the company’s Premier Agent advertising program (subsequently dubbed PA...

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The Tipping Point Has Been Reached - Introducing a New Pair Trade Long RDFN/Short RLGY, Update to our Zillow Short...

October 22nd, 2018

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Z/ZG: A Closer Look at the Homes Division - Is Profitability Really the Goal? Not When You Sell Homes at a 3-4% Premium...

August 17th, 2018

“At this point, we're clearly bias towards scale over profitability, but because we've been selling the houses so much faster than we anticipated, the return on equity has been better...

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Z/ZG: There Must Be a Pony in There Somewhere, An Ode to Zillow’s “Napkin Math” as the Company Attempts to Evolve...

August 7th, 2018

“Then he clambered to the top of the pile, dropped to his knees, and began gleefully digging out scoop after scoop with his bare hands. 'What do you think you're doing?' the...

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Z/ZG: Where’s George Carlin When You Need Him? New York State Allegedly Says No to the Premier Agent Program for...

May 8th, 2018

“About this time, someone is telling you to get on the plane. "Get on the plane. Get on the plane." I say….. I'm getting IN the plane! IN the plane! Let Evil Knievel get ON...

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Z/ZG: What Did Zillow Really Announce? The Company’s Decision To Start Buying Homes Isn’t the Most Important...

April 13th, 2018

With management’s usual flair for the dramatic and acute sense of self-importance, Zillow announced yesterday that it plans to buy and sell homes on the open market through expansion of the...

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Z/ZG: Listen to Management Carefully and You’ll Hear All You Need to Know About the Structural, Secular, and...

February 9th, 2018

“Somethin' ain't right. Gonna get myself, I'm gonna get myself Gonna get myself connected I ain't gonna go blind For the light which is reflected I see through...

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Z/ZG: Our Confidence in Our Short Thesis Continues to Grow

November 8th, 2017

Even through the prism of what some might argue are “jade colored glasses”, we cannot find enormous fault with Zillow’s 3Q17 earnings results and 4Q17 outlook.  The company delivered a modest topline beat largely due to better than...

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Z/ZG: The Hunter Becomes the Hunted - Feedback From 380+ Real Estate Agents

August 21st, 2017

The attached powerpoint presentation summarizes our findings from our 8th annual survey of real estate agents in the United States.  

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Z/ZG: An Earnings Conference Call “For the Ages” That Reminds Us Why Zillow Has Become Our Top Short Idea; The...

August 9th, 2017

Redfin is trying to get rid of buyers' agents, and we'll see how that goes. As I said previously though, we are focused on doing something different. We are brokerage-agnostic is the way for...

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Z/ZG: Seven Causes for Concern (at least) as Zillow Management Pushes the “Narrative”

July 26th, 2017

Approximately two weeks ago, Spencer Rascoff, CEO of Zillow published a post on LinkedIn entitled: “Why Some Investors Care About Culture”.  In the post, Mr. Rascoff lauded two (unnamed) investors that are large...

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Z/ZG: Define Small

May 5th, 2017

“Mark, on the CFPB, we don't break out the amount of the revenue that comes from co-marketing efforts, but we have said and it continues to be the case that it's a small portion of overall revenue.” Kathleen Phillips, CFO Zillow, 1Q17 Earnings Conf. Call....

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Z/ZG: These Questions Need to Be Asked; It’s Time to Address the RESPA/CFPB Issue

May 4th, 2017

“Prior to and during the live conference call, investors may submit questions via Sli.do (www.slido.com).  By entering the event code #ZEarnings on the Sli.do homepage, participants will be placed into the queue where they...

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Z/ZG: Is Zillow’s Lender Co-Marketing Strategy under Increased Scrutiny from the CFPB?

March 9th, 2017

Approximately 18-months ago, we published a report entitled: “Is Zillow’s ARPA Growth Miracle Over? The Demise of the “MSA” in the Mortgage Channel Suggests It Could Be, Reducing Estimates”.  In...

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Z/ZG: Investing for Growth or the Cost of Doing Business? A Closer Look at the “Funnel” Suggests Growth for this...

February 8th, 2017

In many ways the investment case for or against Zillow increasingly can be distilled to one single question: Does the company’s current cost structure reflect investments for growth or simply...

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Current Ideas

EXPI

SELL/SHORT

$4

HUSQ.B

SELL

$50

UFPI

SELL/SHORT

$45

TREX

SHORT

$18

PRDO

SELL/SHORT

$5

STRA

SELL/SHORT

$42

CWH

LONG

$75

OSTK

LONG

$128

CM

SELL/SHORT

$50

RY

SELL/SHORT

$50

ARC

LONG

$5.50

AYI

SHORT

$50

BIG

SHORT

$28

WWE

LONG

$65

XOXO

LONG

$37

RLGY

PAIR TRADE

$10

RDFN

PAIR TRADE

$30

BCO

LONG

$35

ING.PA

SHORT

$35

TRUP

SELL/SHORT

$10

CTC

SHORT

$101

ATGE

SHORT

$15

HCG.TO

SHORT

$0

RON.TO

SHORT

$9

ESI

SHORT

$0

BGG

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

TTC

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

Z

SHORT

$14.00

NA.TO

SHORT

$22

ZU

SHORT

$15

TRLA

SHORT

$20

MCRS

SHORT

$31

APOL

SHORT

$35

OPEN

SHORT

$30

KNL

PAIR - LONG KNL/SHORT MLHR

25%

CSGP

SHORT

$100

GCA

LONG

$8

IPSU

LONG

$20

MLHR

SHORT

$22

LOOP

PAIR - LONG CSGP/SHORT LOOP

40%

THQI

LONG

$35

WPO

SHORT

$275

COCO

SHORT

$0

HNI

SIG

RGR