Log In

Z/ZG: Our Confidence in Our Short Thesis Continues to Grow

November 8th, 2017

Even through the prism of what some might argue are “jade colored glasses”, we cannot find enormous fault with Zillow’s 3Q17 earnings results and 4Q17 outlook.  The company delivered a modest topline beat largely due to better than...

READ MORE >

Z/ZG: The Hunter Becomes the Hunted - Feedback From 380+ Real Estate Agents

August 21st, 2017

The attached powerpoint presentation summarizes our findings from our 8th annual survey of real estate agents in the United States.  

READ MORE >

Z/ZG: An Earnings Conference Call “For the Ages” That Reminds Us Why Zillow Has Become Our Top Short Idea; The...

August 9th, 2017

Redfin is trying to get rid of buyers' agents, and we'll see how that goes. As I said previously though, we are focused on doing something different. We are brokerage-agnostic is the way for...

READ MORE >

Z/ZG: Seven Causes for Concern (at least) as Zillow Management Pushes the “Narrative”

July 26th, 2017

Approximately two weeks ago, Spencer Rascoff, CEO of Zillow published a post on LinkedIn entitled: “Why Some Investors Care About Culture”.  In the post, Mr. Rascoff lauded two (unnamed) investors that are large...

READ MORE >

Z/ZG: Define Small

May 5th, 2017

“Mark, on the CFPB, we don't break out the amount of the revenue that comes from co-marketing efforts, but we have said and it continues to be the case that it's a small portion of overall revenue.” Kathleen Phillips, CFO Zillow, 1Q17 Earnings Conf. Call....

READ MORE >

Z/ZG: These Questions Need to Be Asked; It’s Time to Address the RESPA/CFPB Issue

May 4th, 2017

“Prior to and during the live conference call, investors may submit questions via Sli.do (www.slido.com).  By entering the event code #ZEarnings on the Sli.do homepage, participants will be placed into the queue where they...

READ MORE >

Z/ZG: Is Zillow’s Lender Co-Marketing Strategy under Increased Scrutiny from the CFPB?

March 9th, 2017

Approximately 18-months ago, we published a report entitled: “Is Zillow’s ARPA Growth Miracle Over? The Demise of the “MSA” in the Mortgage Channel Suggests It Could Be, Reducing Estimates”.  In...

READ MORE >

Z/ZG: Investing for Growth or the Cost of Doing Business? A Closer Look at the “Funnel” Suggests Growth for this...

February 8th, 2017

In many ways the investment case for or against Zillow increasingly can be distilled to one single question: Does the company’s current cost structure reflect investments for growth or simply...

READ MORE >

Current Ideas

CTC

SHORT

$101

ATGE

SHORT

$15

AYI

SHORT

$108

HCG.TO

SHORT

$0

RON.TO

SHORT

$9

BIG

SHORT

$28

ESI

SHORT

$0

BGG

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

TTC

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

Z

SHORT

$14.00

NA.TO

SHORT

$22

ING.PA

SHORT

$35

ZU

SHORT

$15

TRLA

SHORT

$20

MCRS

SHORT

$31

APOL

SHORT

$35

OPEN

SHORT

$30

BCO

LONG

$35

WWE

LONG

$25

KNL

PAIR - LONG KNL/SHORT MLHR

25%

XOXO

LONG

$20

CSGP

SHORT

$100

GCA

LONG

$8

IPSU

LONG

$20

MLHR

SHORT

$22

ARC

LONG

$12.50

LOOP

PAIR - LONG CSGP/SHORT LOOP

40%

THQI

LONG

$35

WPO

SHORT

$275

COCO

SHORT

$0

HNI

SIG

RGR