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Z: 20% of the Traffic (and growing) and Less Than 1% of the Spend; Zillow’s TAM Story Gets Better and Better

February 14th, 2013

Didn’t we go through the same experience last quarter?  Zillow beat revenue and EPS for 4Q12, operating metrics were stellar, and management guided lower in large part due to increased expectations for...

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Z: Sometimes It’s Important to Remember These Guys are “Empire Builders”…

November 6th, 2012

If you told us heading into the earnings print that Zillow would have added more than 4,000 premier agent subscribers in the third quarter, we almost certainly would have expected Zillow shares to trade higher.  Obviously that has not...

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Z: A Closer Look at the Rental Property Marketplace – Raising Estimates and Price Objective to $50

October 22nd, 2012

In the housing depression over the past five years, there has been one segment of the marketplace that has performed quite well – rentals. Historically, the rental property market has been largely comprised of...

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Z: All About the Metrics

August 8th, 2012

Zillow shares traded off sharply after hours yesterday following earnings results that were good, but perhaps not strong enough relative to “whisper numbers”.  Additionally, the company filed a shelf offering which included the option for significant stock holders to sell as much as 3.6MM...

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My Interview in Barron's

July 1st, 2012

In case you missed it, I recently had the opportunity to speak with Leslie Norton of Barron's about PAA Research, our approach to idea generation, and some of our latest thoughts on for-profit education, payment processing and OPEN, Z, BGG, and TTC.  You can find the full interview HERE.

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Current Ideas

EXPI

SELL/SHORT

$4

HUSQ.B

SELL

$50

UFPI

SELL/SHORT

$45

TREX

SHORT

$18

PRDO

SELL/SHORT

$5

STRA

SELL/SHORT

$42

CWH

LONG

$75

OSTK

LONG

$128

CM

SELL/SHORT

$50

RY

SELL/SHORT

$50

ARC

LONG

$5.50

AYI

SHORT

$50

BIG

SHORT

$28

WWE

LONG

$65

XOXO

LONG

$37

RLGY

PAIR TRADE

$10

RDFN

PAIR TRADE

$30

BCO

LONG

$35

ING.PA

SHORT

$35

TRUP

SELL/SHORT

$10

CTC

SHORT

$101

ATGE

SHORT

$15

HCG.TO

SHORT

$0

RON.TO

SHORT

$9

ESI

SHORT

$0

BGG

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

TTC

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

Z

SHORT

$14.00

NA.TO

SHORT

$22

ZU

SHORT

$15

TRLA

SHORT

$20

MCRS

SHORT

$31

APOL

SHORT

$35

OPEN

SHORT

$30

KNL

PAIR - LONG KNL/SHORT MLHR

25%

CSGP

SHORT

$100

GCA

LONG

$8

IPSU

LONG

$20

MLHR

SHORT

$22

LOOP

PAIR - LONG CSGP/SHORT LOOP

40%

THQI

LONG

$35

WPO

SHORT

$275

COCO

SHORT

$0

HNI

SIG

RGR