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OPEN: When Did This Become a Cost-Cutting Story? Peak EPS Could Be Closer Than You Think

February 8th, 2012

At the highest level here are the headlines about OPEN’s 4Q11 earnings results and subsequent earnings conference call: 1) the company delivered a low quality beat, 2) underlying operating metrics for the most part were...

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OPEN: Stock Rips As the Company Loses Share in Euro., Faces Increased Competition in the US, 4Q11 Should Show More Sign...

February 7th, 2012

Stop us if you’ve heard this one before: a heavily shorted stock, which was one of the worst performing names in its sector in 2011 has now rallied more than 20% to start the year.  Of course in...

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OPEN: The Growth Story Unravels Just As Competition Appears Poised to Step Up, Lowering Price Objective to $30

November 2nd, 2011

In the lengthy report we published on OPEN on Monday (backed by a survey of 110-120 restaurant owners) we outlined a number key issues that we expected to become discounted in the stock over the next...

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OPEN: The NA Moat Is More Vulnerable Than You Think – A More Realistic TAM Analysis, Lowering Price Objective to $37

October 31st, 2011

In the 7+ months since we introduced OPEN as a short idea, we have been in a position where the stock has gained more than 40% against us and now trades more than 40% below where we initiated our...

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OPEN: The North American “Moat” Looks to be Increasingly Under Siege

September 8th, 2011

OPEN shares traded off sharply today in response to GOOG’s announcement that it had acquired Zagat, a worldwide publisher of ratings and reviews of restaurants and other businesses.  The Zagat restaurant surveys, launched more than 30 years...

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OPEN: The Growth Story Is Cracking Sooner Than Expected, Lowering Price Objective to $48

August 2nd, 2011

Approximately 5-months ago, we introduced OPEN as a short idea based on the following thesis: 1. OPEN’s electronic reservation booking system (ERB) in many respects is a solution without a problem 2. Restaurants view the...

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OPEN: 2Q11 Preview, Competition Matters

August 1st, 2011

If you happen to be looking at OPEN for the first time, you might be wondering: what’s the big deal about the stock from a pure performance perspective?  Year-to date the stock has gained a measly 0.5%, compared to a 2.8% gain for the S&P 500.  Obviously, OPEN has been...

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OPEN: Competition Continues to Eat Away at OPEN’s Total Addressable Market (TAM)

June 24th, 2011

Approximately 12-weeks ago, we introduced OPEN as a short idea.  You can read our original 40-page report by clicking here.  The principal elements of our short thesis are as follows: 1. OPEN’s electronic reservation booking system...

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OPEN: Unassailable OPEN? We Don’t Think So, 1Q11 Preview

May 3rd, 2011

Approximately 8-weeks ago, we introduced OPEN as a short idea.  You can read our original 40-page report by clicking here.  The principal elements of our short thesis are as follows: 1. OPEN’s electronic reservation booking system (ERB) in many respects...

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OPEN: Evaluating OPEN’s Competitive Challenges in Europe – Is Market Leadership in Europe “Fait Accompli”?

March 17th, 2011

Approximately 2-weeks ago, we introduced OPEN as a short idea.  You can read our original 40-page report by clicking here.  The principal elements of our short thesis are as follows: 1. OPEN’s...

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OPEN: The “TAM” Fallacy and the Implications of a Solution without a Problem – Time to Get Short

March 2nd, 2011

Let’s get this out of the way early on – we are firm believers in the concept that valuation is not a short thesis, or more simply stated valuation is not a thesis.  Ask any hedge fund manager who has relied on...

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