Log In

BGG: 3Q11 Yields a Solid Beat, Mgmt. Sets a Low Bar for the Rest of the Fiscal Year

April 28th, 2011

BGG shares rallied modestly today, despite the significant outperformance posted by the company on both the top and bottomline for 3Q11. We attribute the tepid stock price response to the relatively muted outlook for 4Q11 provided by...

READ MORE >

BGG/TTC: Survey Results from Outdoor Power Equipment Dealers Adds Credence to Our Long BGG/Short TTC Pair Trade

April 27th, 2011

We have been recommending a pair trade: long BGG/short TTC for approximately 6-9 months.  Thus far the trade has not been a winner, generating a modest gain 1.5% compared to a robust 26.5% increase for the...

READ MORE >

TTC: Near Term Earnings Upside Appears Priced In, Still Favor Long BGG/Short TTC

February 17th, 2011

TTC reported 1Q11 results today that were well above consensus expectations.  You can read the full release here.  Despite the large upside delivered for 1Q11, the upward revision to FY11 guidance, and communication of a FY14 operating...

READ MORE >

BGG: 2Q11 Earnings Not As Impressive As Headline Results Suggest, Waiting for Signs of Spring

January 28th, 2011

BGG reported 2Q11 results that we would characterize as far less impressive as the headline numbers would suggest.  In general, it appears that relatively strong demand in Australia and Asia combined with slightly earlier...

READ MORE >

BGG: Survey Results from Outdoor Power Equipment Dealers and 2Q11 Preview

January 26th, 2011

We have been recommending a pair trade: long BGG/short TTC for approximately three months.  Thus far the trade has not been a winner, generating a modest loss (-0.3%) compared to a whopping 21.3% gain for the S&P 500.  As a reminder, the...

READ MORE >

BGG: Channel Sell Through Slowed Over Past 3-Months, but Earnings Upside for the Quarter Still Seems Likely

October 19th, 2010

We have been recommending a pair trade: long BGG/short TTC for approximately three months.  Thus far the trade has not been a winner, generating a (-4.7%) return compared to a 9.4% gain for the S&P 500.  As...

READ MORE >

TTC: Large 3Q10 Beat As Expected, Guides Inline, Headwinds Should Start to Emerge in FY11, Still Favor Long BGG/Short...

August 19th, 2010

TTC reported strong 3Q10 result this morning,  you can read the full release here.  On the heels of BGG's blow-out numbers, it should come as no surprise that TTC delivered significant upside to...

READ MORE >

BGG: Replacement Driven Demand, Monster FCF Highlight Strong 4Q10, Still Favor Long BGG, Short TTC

August 12th, 2010

We recently introduced a pair trade idea: long BGG/short TTC.  Thus far the trade has returned 2.1% compared to a 2.3% gain for the S&P 500.  We still think the pair trade has the potential to generate a total...

READ MORE >

Closing out BGG and TTC Shorts with 21.2% and 7.3% Gains, Going Long BGG Against Short Position in TTC

July 19th, 2010

Approximately three months ago we introduced two short ideas in the outdoor power equipment space: BGG and TTC.  Since that time shares of BGG have sold off 21.2%, while those of TTC have declined 7.3% compared to a...

READ MORE >

TTC: 2Q10 Upside More than Overshadowed by Threat of Slowdown in the US, Golf and European Headwinds

May 21st, 2010

TTC reported 2Q10 results earlier today.  You can read the full release here.  The company's earnings results were inline with TTC's positive pre-announcement on 5/13.Key Observations from TTC's 2Q10 ResultsHere are...

READ MORE >

Time to Grab the "Bull" by the Horns, Getting Short TTC and BGG

April 19th, 2010

The outdoor power equipment sector is an industry whose revenue growth trends have historically been driven by three primary factors: home sales, general consumer confidence, and weather.  It should come as no surprise given these factors that unit sales...

READ MORE >

Current Ideas

AYI

SHORT

$129

RON.TO

SHORT

$9

BIG

SHORT

$28

ESI

SHORT

$0

DV

SHORT

$15

BGG

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

TTC

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

Z

SHORT

$14.00

NA.TO

SHORT

$22

HCG.TO

SHORT

$20

ING.PA

SHORT

$35

ZU

SHORT

$15

TRLA

SHORT

$20

MCRS

SHORT

$31

APOL

SHORT

$35

OPEN

SHORT

$30

BCO

LONG

$35

WWE

LONG

$25

KNL

PAIR - LONG KNL/SHORT MLHR

25%

XOXO

LONG

$20

CSGP

SHORT

$100

GCA

LONG

$8

IPSU

LONG

$20

MLHR

SHORT

$22

ARC

LONG

$12.50

LOOP

PAIR - LONG CSGP/SHORT LOOP

40%

THQI

LONG

$35

WPO

SHORT

$275

COCO

SHORT

$0

HNI

SIG

RGR