Log In

WPO: The Song Remains the Same, Lowering Estimates to Reflect Weakening Prospects for Kaplan

August 3rd, 2012

In many respects, WPO’s 2Q12 earnings results represent a complete validation of our short thesis on the stock.  At a time when it appears most bulls on the stock own it based on some theoretical breakup value, two...

READ MORE >

For-Profit EDU: Checks with Privately Held Institutions Suggest Trends Are Not Getting Better; Be Wary of the 150%...

July 24th, 2012

Make no mistake, as we navigate earnings season in the for-profit education space over the next 2-3 weeks, the poor operating results from DeVry will look like an accurate gauge of the operating...

READ MORE >

For-Profit EDU: The CFPB Frames the Private Student Lending Industry

July 20th, 2012

Early this morning, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) released its long awaited report on the Private Student Loan (PSL) industry.  The report provides a broad overview of the characteristics of the private student loan market for the...

READ MORE >

My Interview in Barron's

July 1st, 2012

In case you missed it, I recently had the opportunity to speak with Leslie Norton of Barron's about PAA Research, our approach to idea generation, and some of our latest thoughts on for-profit education, payment processing and OPEN, Z, BGG, and TTC.  You can find the full interview HERE.

READ MORE >

For-Profit EDU: Another Log on the Fire? The Pell Grant Party Might Be Over

June 20th, 2012

There is little doubt that the for-profit postsecondary education sector has been under siege for the past 2-3 years.  Most stocks in the space are trading at or near their 52-week lows and at valuations most investors and management teams in...

READ MORE >

For-Profit EDU: As Some Try to Celebrate “Less Worse” Metrics, Starts Deteriorate and a Fundamental Inflection...

April 24th, 2012

Today the 1Q12 earnings season in the for-profit postsecondary education sector kicks off in earnest.  Thus far, many of the 12 issues that we thought would matter most this year have weighed...

READ MORE >

WPO: 10-K High (and Low) Lights; 2012 Could Be As Good As It Gets for Quite Some Time, Revised Estimates

March 2nd, 2012

Admittedly, WPO’s 4Q11 results beat our estimates by a wide margin.  Normally this type of EPS upside would yield a more meaningful reaction in any given company’s stock price – that did not happen.  WPO...

READ MORE >

For-Profit EDU: Will Winter Term/4Q11 Results Represent an Inflection Point for the Industry? Checks with Private...

January 25th, 2012

Yesterday we published a lengthy report that outlined the 12 issues that we think will have the greatest impact on the enrollment, revenue, EPS and stock sentiment of the publicly traded for-profit...

READ MORE >

For-Profit EDU: As the Focus Turns To “Brand and Price”, The 12 Issues That Will Matter Most in For-Profit...

January 24th, 2012

Perhaps it happens every year, but the relative outperformance of last year’s losers compared to the prior year’s winners has been particularly pronounced thus far in 2012.  The 25 worst...

READ MORE >

WPO: Steady As She Goes…. In Decline

November 4th, 2011

In many respects, WPO’s 3Q11 earnings results represent a complete validation of our short thesis on WPO shares.  At a time when it appears most bulls on the stock own it based on some theoretical breakup value, two unalienable truths remain clear: 1) WPO management has no...

READ MORE >

For-Profit EDU: More of the Same, Checks with Private Institutions Suggest Primary Fundamental Issues Likely Remained...

October 17th, 2011

What a difference a few months can make.  To put the performance of the publicly traded for-profit postsecondary education companies in perspective for the past few months, we thought it might be...

READ MORE >

For-Profit EDU: More Details Emerge on the Extent of Online Fraud Rings, APOL Outlines Its Exposure

October 11th, 2011

In an article on Insidehighered.com today entitled “Hitting Hard at Fraud”, more details on the extent of online fraud rings in higher education have emerged.  As a reminder, two weeks ago, the Department of...

READ MORE >

For-Profit EDU: Highlights from Our Conference Call with a Representative from an Influential Consumer Advocacy Group

October 5th, 2011

Earlier today PAA Research hosted a conference call with Deanne Loonin of the National Consumer Law Center, one of the best known and most influential non-profit consumer advocacy organizations in the...

READ MORE >

REMINDER: For-Profit EDU - TODAY at 2:30PM EST, PAA Research Conf. Call with Deanne Loonin of the National Consumer Law...

October 5th, 2011

PAA Research will host a conference call TODAY at 2:30PM ET with Deanne Loonin of the National Consumer Law Center, one of the best known and most influential non-profit consumer advocacy...

READ MORE >

REMINDER THIS WED: For-Profit EDU, Wed. 10/5 at 2:30PM, PAA Research Conf. Call with Industry Expert on Student Loans...

October 3rd, 2011

PAA Research will host a conference call at 2:30PM ET Wednesday October 5th with Deanne Loonin of the National Consumer Law Center, one of the best known and most influential non-profit consumer...

READ MORE >

For-Profit EDU: OIG Report on Online Fraud Rings Could Have Serious Implications for the Sector

September 29th, 2011

Earlier this week, the Department of Education’s Office of Inspector General published an investigative program advisory report on “Online Education Fraud Rings”.  The report was sent to Federal Student Aid (FSA) and...

READ MORE >

INVITE: For-Profit EDU, Wed. 10/5 at 2:30PM, PAA Research Conf. Call with Industry Expert on Student Loans and the...

September 26th, 2011

PAA Research will host a conference call at 2:30PM ET Wednesday October 5th with Deanne Loonin of the National Consumer Law Center, one of the best known and most influential non-profit consumer...

READ MORE >

WPO: Time Is On Our Side – Thoughts from WPO’s 2011 Shareholder Day

September 13th, 2011

On Friday, WPO management hosted its bi-annual shareholder day.  If ever we had any doubts about our long term secular short case for WPO shares, they were all but removed following a series of management presentations.  Based on the tenor and...

READ MORE >

For-Profit EDU: The Simple vs. the Complex, Checks with Private Institutions Indicate Further Deterioration in...

July 20th, 2011

For the past six weeks, we feel like we have been “spitting into the wind” when it comes to our bearish call on stocks in the for-profit postsecondary education sector.  Despite our best efforts...

READ MORE >

For-Profit EDU: 12 Reasons Why We Remain Bearish; Observations from Our Proprietary Paid Search Analysis

July 12th, 2011

In the 6 trading days following APOL’s earnings release, the shares of publicly traded for-profit postsecondary education companies have rallied anywhere from 10-20% compared to a modest sell-off of (-0.2%) for...

READ MORE >

For-Profit EDU: Did the Dept. of Education Really Blink?

June 2nd, 2011

Details of the Department of Education’s Gainful Employment regulation were released this evening.  The full regulation will likely be published tomorrow on the Department of Education’s website here or here, or ultimately in the Federal Register by Friday...

READ MORE >

For-Profit EDU: Proposed Cuts to IL MAP Funding Could Establish an Alarming (and Increasingly Common) Precedent

May 16th, 2011

In a move that has received little attention among investors in the for-profit postsecondary education space, approximately 10-days ago, the Appropriations Higher Education Committee in the House of...

READ MORE >

For-Profit EDU: Checks with Private Institutions Indicate Enrollment Slowdown Continues to Gain Steam

April 20th, 2011

For an industry that has distinguished itself in the equity markets as a consistent source of trading opportunities, the “whip-saw” action in the for-profit education sector in the first four months of the year has...

READ MORE >

For-Profit EDU: The Cal Grant Precedent

April 19th, 2011

In a move that has been largely overlooked by most investors in the for-profit postsecondary education space, Governor Jerry Brown (CA-D) signed Senate Bill 70 into law on March 24, 2011.  While SB 70 includes many other elements aimed at reducing unwieldy budget deficits in...

READ MORE >

For-Profit EDU: What’s at Stake in the Pell Grant Debate – The Potential EPS Impact is Bigger than You Might Think

April 13th, 2011

There was a time not too long ago when investors in the for-profit postsecondary education sector viewed those institutions that generated a high percentage of their revenues from Pell Grant funding...

READ MORE >

For-Profit EDU: Why the Amended Complaint Against DV Might Be Worth Reading

March 8th, 2011

From what we can gather, few investors if any have paid close attention to the progress of the various securities class action suits filed against almost every one of the publicly traded for-profit postsecondary education companies.  We are...

READ MORE >

WPO: The Long Retrenchment At Kaplan Begins, Assessing WPO’s Earnings Power Going Forward

February 24th, 2011

Approximately 18-months ago, we scribed a letter to Warren Buffet, Chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway about his sizeable ownership stake in the Washington Post Company. It might have been an audacious endeavor on our part...

READ MORE >

Winners and Losers from the FY08 3-Year CRD Data – The Usual Suspects

February 4th, 2011

The Department of Education released “trial” 3-year cohort default rate data this morning on an national level and institution by institution basis. Before we get into a discussion of the national level data and some of our findings on a school...

READ MORE >

For-Profit Education: 4Q10 FAFSA Data Confirms Enrollment Slowdown Across ALL of Higher Education

January 24th, 2011

Today the US Department of Education released data on the number of Free Applications for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) submitted during 4Q10-11 (calendar fourth quarter of 2010).   In our view the FAFSA data provided by...

READ MORE >

For-Profit Postsecondary Education: Checks with Private Institutions Indicate STRA Was Not an Anomaly, the Slowdown Is...

January 19th, 2011

For an industry that has distinguished itself in the equity markets as a consistent source of trading opportunities, the “whip-saw” action in the for-profit education sector in the first few...

READ MORE >

Scroll to load more

Current Ideas

CTC

SHORT

$101

ATGE

SHORT

$15

AYI

SHORT

$108

HCG.TO

SHORT

$0

RON.TO

SHORT

$9

BIG

SHORT

$28

ESI

SHORT

$0

BGG

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

TTC

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

Z

SHORT

$14.00

NA.TO

SHORT

$22

ING.PA

SHORT

$35

ZU

SHORT

$15

TRLA

SHORT

$20

MCRS

SHORT

$31

APOL

SHORT

$35

OPEN

SHORT

$30

BCO

LONG

$35

WWE

LONG

$25

KNL

PAIR - LONG KNL/SHORT MLHR

25%

XOXO

LONG

$20

CSGP

SHORT

$100

GCA

LONG

$8

IPSU

LONG

$20

MLHR

SHORT

$22

ARC

LONG

$12.50

LOOP

PAIR - LONG CSGP/SHORT LOOP

40%

THQI

LONG

$35

WPO

SHORT

$275

COCO

SHORT

$0

HNI

SIG

RGR