Log In

For-Profit EDU: The Career College Crisis of Summer 2014; Checks Suggest Continued Weakness in Fundamentals – Where...

July 28th, 2014

“The cheaters usually get caught--just never soon enough. Plenty more heads will roll.” Anonymous executive in the for-profit education space Given our longstanding bearish stance on...

READ MORE >

For-Profit EDU: The Stocks Have Been Telling Us For the Past 6-Months That the Fall Term Enrollment Intake Would...

October 22nd, 2013

“It’s real the pain you feel, you trust, you must confess Is someone getting the best, the best, the best of you?”-          Foo FightersOften wrong, never in doubt…. If we could use...

READ MORE >

WPO: The Irrational Bid Scenario Now Comes Into Play and Catalysts Are Limited, Closing Out Our Short Idea With a...

August 6th, 2013

This is something we obviously did not see coming, but based on the action in WPO shares over the past 6-months perhaps someone else did.  In retrospect, we should have given greater attention to...

READ MORE >

For-Profit EDU: Just When You Think You Have All of the Answers, We Change the Questions; Feedback from Privately Held...

July 24th, 2013

“And you all know how the story go….Not bad meaning bad but bad meaning good…”-          Run-DMCWith all due respect to Monsieurs Simmons, McDaniels, and Mizell we doubt that they...

READ MORE >

For-Profit EDU: Checks with Privately Held Institutions Suggest We’re On the Cusp of Yet Another Round of Meaningful...

October 15th, 2012

On Tuesday, October 16th APOL will kick-start the earnings season in the for-profit postsecondary education sector.  Investor expectations for the company’s results, particularly surrounding new...

READ MORE >

WPO: The Song Remains the Same, Lowering Estimates to Reflect Weakening Prospects for Kaplan

August 3rd, 2012

In many respects, WPO’s 2Q12 earnings results represent a complete validation of our short thesis on the stock.  At a time when it appears most bulls on the stock own it based on some theoretical breakup value, two...

READ MORE >

For-Profit EDU: Checks with Privately Held Institutions Suggest Trends Are Not Getting Better; Be Wary of the 150%...

July 24th, 2012

Make no mistake, as we navigate earnings season in the for-profit education space over the next 2-3 weeks, the poor operating results from DeVry will look like an accurate gauge of the operating...

READ MORE >

For-Profit EDU: The CFPB Frames the Private Student Lending Industry

July 20th, 2012

Early this morning, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) released its long awaited report on the Private Student Loan (PSL) industry.  The report provides a broad overview of the characteristics of the private student loan market for the...

READ MORE >

My Interview in Barron's

July 1st, 2012

In case you missed it, I recently had the opportunity to speak with Leslie Norton of Barron's about PAA Research, our approach to idea generation, and some of our latest thoughts on for-profit education, payment processing and OPEN, Z, BGG, and TTC.  You can find the full interview HERE.

READ MORE >

For-Profit EDU: Another Log on the Fire? The Pell Grant Party Might Be Over

June 20th, 2012

There is little doubt that the for-profit postsecondary education sector has been under siege for the past 2-3 years.  Most stocks in the space are trading at or near their 52-week lows and at valuations most investors and management teams in...

READ MORE >

For-Profit EDU: As Some Try to Celebrate “Less Worse” Metrics, Starts Deteriorate and a Fundamental Inflection...

April 24th, 2012

Today the 1Q12 earnings season in the for-profit postsecondary education sector kicks off in earnest.  Thus far, many of the 12 issues that we thought would matter most this year have weighed...

READ MORE >

WPO: 10-K High (and Low) Lights; 2012 Could Be As Good As It Gets for Quite Some Time, Revised Estimates

March 2nd, 2012

Admittedly, WPO’s 4Q11 results beat our estimates by a wide margin.  Normally this type of EPS upside would yield a more meaningful reaction in any given company’s stock price – that did not happen.  WPO...

READ MORE >

For-Profit EDU: Will Winter Term/4Q11 Results Represent an Inflection Point for the Industry? Checks with Private...

January 25th, 2012

Yesterday we published a lengthy report that outlined the 12 issues that we think will have the greatest impact on the enrollment, revenue, EPS and stock sentiment of the publicly traded for-profit...

READ MORE >

For-Profit EDU: As the Focus Turns To “Brand and Price”, The 12 Issues That Will Matter Most in For-Profit...

January 24th, 2012

Perhaps it happens every year, but the relative outperformance of last year’s losers compared to the prior year’s winners has been particularly pronounced thus far in 2012.  The 25 worst...

READ MORE >

WPO: Steady As She Goes…. In Decline

November 4th, 2011

In many respects, WPO’s 3Q11 earnings results represent a complete validation of our short thesis on WPO shares.  At a time when it appears most bulls on the stock own it based on some theoretical breakup value, two unalienable truths remain clear: 1) WPO management has no...

READ MORE >

For-Profit EDU: More of the Same, Checks with Private Institutions Suggest Primary Fundamental Issues Likely Remained...

October 17th, 2011

What a difference a few months can make.  To put the performance of the publicly traded for-profit postsecondary education companies in perspective for the past few months, we thought it might be...

READ MORE >

For-Profit EDU: More Details Emerge on the Extent of Online Fraud Rings, APOL Outlines Its Exposure

October 11th, 2011

In an article on Insidehighered.com today entitled “Hitting Hard at Fraud”, more details on the extent of online fraud rings in higher education have emerged.  As a reminder, two weeks ago, the Department of...

READ MORE >

For-Profit EDU: Highlights from Our Conference Call with a Representative from an Influential Consumer Advocacy Group

October 5th, 2011

Earlier today PAA Research hosted a conference call with Deanne Loonin of the National Consumer Law Center, one of the best known and most influential non-profit consumer advocacy organizations in the...

READ MORE >

REMINDER: For-Profit EDU - TODAY at 2:30PM EST, PAA Research Conf. Call with Deanne Loonin of the National Consumer Law...

October 5th, 2011

PAA Research will host a conference call TODAY at 2:30PM ET with Deanne Loonin of the National Consumer Law Center, one of the best known and most influential non-profit consumer advocacy...

READ MORE >

REMINDER THIS WED: For-Profit EDU, Wed. 10/5 at 2:30PM, PAA Research Conf. Call with Industry Expert on Student Loans...

October 3rd, 2011

PAA Research will host a conference call at 2:30PM ET Wednesday October 5th with Deanne Loonin of the National Consumer Law Center, one of the best known and most influential non-profit consumer...

READ MORE >

Current Ideas

HCG.TO

SHORT

$0

AYI

SHORT

$129

RON.TO

SHORT

$9

BIG

SHORT

$28

ESI

SHORT

$0

DV

SHORT

$15

BGG

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

TTC

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

Z

SHORT

$14.00

NA.TO

SHORT

$22

ING.PA

SHORT

$35

ZU

SHORT

$15

TRLA

SHORT

$20

MCRS

SHORT

$31

APOL

SHORT

$35

OPEN

SHORT

$30

BCO

LONG

$35

WWE

LONG

$25

KNL

PAIR - LONG KNL/SHORT MLHR

25%

XOXO

LONG

$20

CSGP

SHORT

$100

GCA

LONG

$8

IPSU

LONG

$20

MLHR

SHORT

$22

ARC

LONG

$12.50

LOOP

PAIR - LONG CSGP/SHORT LOOP

40%

THQI

LONG

$35

WPO

SHORT

$275

COCO

SHORT

$0

HNI

SIG

RGR