Log In

Implications of Explosive Keyword Price Inflation on the For-Profit Education Sector

November 23rd, 2010

Over the past several months there has been a growing bifurcation in the for-profit postsecondary education industry between those companies that have enacted significant "self regulation" measures in order to improve compliance with...

READ MORE >

COCO: Management's Strategy Appears to be "It's Not Our Fault", Debt Levels Now Appear to be a Major Problem

November 2nd, 2010

In our 1Q11 earnings preview for COCO, we argued that the company's first quarter earnings could represent a seminal event.  As we stated in our preview:"The decisions management makes over the next 3-6 months...

READ MORE >

COCO: The Burden of Proof Falls on Management, Re-Examining the Value of Heald

November 1st, 2010

COCO will report 1Q11 earnings before the market opens on Tuesday, November 2nd.  In our view, the company finds itself in an extraordinarily precarious position irrespective of what happens with the Dept. of Educationa's Gainful Employment...

READ MORE >

3Q10 FAFSA Volumes Provide Further Confirmation That Enrollment Trends Are Rolling Over

October 26th, 2010

Over the past few weeks, three large, publicly traded for-profit postsecondary education companies reported earnings.  The general feedback from each company (APOL, CPLA, and ESI) has been fairly similar: 1) new student starts have...

READ MORE >

The Credit Hour Issue Escalates

October 18th, 2010

For the past 6-7 months we have argued that the definition of a credit hour could become a significant regulatory issue in the higher education space, one that has generally overlooked by most investors.  As a reminder, upon the passage of NegReg 2009 the Department of Education will...

READ MORE >

A View from Privately Held For-Profit Postsecondary Education Institutions - Here Comes the Enrollment Slowdown

October 8th, 2010

Investing in the for-profit education sector over the past 2-3 months has been almost entirely about one's ability to tap into various DC lobbying groups, read the "tea leaves" from public statements from...

READ MORE >

The Catalysts in the For-Profit Education Sector Over the Next 6-8 Weeks - It's Not All About Gainful Employment

September 23rd, 2010

Volatility has always been a hallmark of the publicly traded for-profit education companies.  In the ten+ years we have been following the sector, the number of trading opportunities have been seemingly...

READ MORE >

COCO Runs Itself Into Regulatory "Maelstrom", Expect Full Year Operating Losses for the Next Several Years

August 20th, 2010

Our short thesis on COCO has never been predicated on a change in the regulatory landscape governing the for-profit postsecondary education sector.  While the outcomes of NegReg 2009 and potential legislation by...

READ MORE >

We Thought the Repayment Rate Data Would Be Bad, It Was Worse - After "Black Monday" What Will Be the Lingering...

August 16th, 2010

On July 23rd, stocks in the for-profit education sector "ripped" after the release of the Department of Education's initial proposal on "gainful employment".  At that time, many investors thought...

READ MORE >

"Repayment Rate" Provision of Gainful Employment Is Not Nearly as "Toothless" as You Might Think

July 23rd, 2010

At long last the details on the Department of Education's proposal for its "gainful employment" were released. You can read an excellent summary of the proposal as well as responses from Senator Harkin, Harris Miller (CCA),...

READ MORE >

A View From Privately Held For-Profit Postsecondary Institutions

July 21st, 2010

Even though we are only 24 hours away from the first earnings report of the season from a publicly traded for-profit education provider, investor focus remains firmly on the eventual outcome of the Department of Education's "gainful employment" proposal....

READ MORE >

Solving the Credit Crisis..... In Higher Education

June 18th, 2010

Over the past 48 hours a significant change has occurred in the operating landscape for proprietary higher education institutions.  While most investors and sell-side analysts debate the eventual outcome of the Department of Education's "gainful employment" proposal,...

READ MORE >

COCO's 3Q10 Results Might Signal the Last Days of Margin Expansion, The Questions that Should Be Asked, Establishing a...

May 4th, 2010

COCO reported 3Q10 earnings results this morning.  You can read the full release here.  Overall, we would characterize the results as more or less inline, but they will likely be viewed as a...

READ MORE >

A "Must Read" Report for Any Investor in the For-Profit Education Sector Heading Into 1Q10 Earnings Season

April 14th, 2010

In the for-profit postsecondary education sector, controversy never dies and it seems like trading opportunities are omnipresent. After a one-month period during which news flow within the industry slowed to a...

READ MORE >

Surprising Observations From the ACICS Key Operating Statistics Report for 2009

April 9th, 2010

Earlier this week, the Accrediting Council for Independent Colleges and Schools (ACICS) finally released its Key Operating Statistics report for FY09 (6/30/09).  You can find the full report here.  The report includes a comprehensive...

READ MORE >

Current Ideas

EXPI

SELL/SHORT

$4

HUSQ.B

SELL

$50

UFPI

SELL/SHORT

$45

TREX

SHORT

$18

PRDO

SELL/SHORT

$5

STRA

SELL/SHORT

$42

CWH

LONG

$75

OSTK

LONG

$128

CM

SELL/SHORT

$50

RY

SELL/SHORT

$50

ARC

LONG

$5.50

AYI

SHORT

$50

BIG

SHORT

$28

WWE

LONG

$65

XOXO

LONG

$37

RLGY

PAIR TRADE

$10

RDFN

PAIR TRADE

$30

BCO

LONG

$35

ING.PA

SHORT

$35

TRUP

SELL/SHORT

$10

CTC

SHORT

$101

ATGE

SHORT

$15

HCG.TO

SHORT

$0

RON.TO

SHORT

$9

ESI

SHORT

$0

BGG

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

TTC

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

Z

SHORT

$14.00

NA.TO

SHORT

$22

ZU

SHORT

$15

TRLA

SHORT

$20

MCRS

SHORT

$31

APOL

SHORT

$35

OPEN

SHORT

$30

KNL

PAIR - LONG KNL/SHORT MLHR

25%

CSGP

SHORT

$100

GCA

LONG

$8

IPSU

LONG

$20

MLHR

SHORT

$22

LOOP

PAIR - LONG CSGP/SHORT LOOP

40%

THQI

LONG

$35

WPO

SHORT

$275

COCO

SHORT

$0

HNI

SIG

RGR