Tag Archives: Short Ideas

The “Obama Effect” One Year Later – What Firearms Dealers Are Saying Now

September 30, 2009 – 9:13 am

There is little debate that President Obama’s most effective economic stimulus has been for the broader firearms industry.  As soon as it became clear in October of last year that Obama would win the presidential election, gun sales took off.  Gun owners and firearms activists became concerned that a Democrat controlled Congress and White House [...]

By PAA Research | Posted in Firearms, Short Ideas | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , | Comments (0)

Sturm, Ruger Strong 2Q09 Results, but Orders are Falling and Channel Inventories Rising – Back to Normalcy in the Firearms Market

July 29, 2009 – 8:55 pm

Sturm, Ruger& Company, Inc. reported 2Q09 results after the close.  You can view the results here.  The company reported revenues and EPS of $72.4 million (vs. $36.9 million 2Q08) and $0.46 (vs. $0.11 2Q08).  EPS beat the lone estimate available by $0.20.  We think EPS upside was largely factored into the stock following SWHC’s earnings [...]

By PAA Research | Posted in Firearms, Short Ideas | Also tagged , , , , , | Comments (1)

ESI’s Bad-Debt Expense and Questions We Would Like Answered on ESI’s Conference Call

July 23, 2009 – 10:20 am

ESI reported 2Q09 results this morning.  You can get all of the details here.  Overall the company reported bigger upside to consensus estimates than we expected ($317.1MM and $1.87 actual vs. $306.1MM and $1.73). As we stated yesterday, we thought the company would beat estimates, but the upside was stronger than we expected.  YOY new [...]

By PAA Research | Posted in For-profit Education, Short Ideas | Also tagged , , , | Comments (0)

Performance of Sallie Mae’s “Non-Traditional” (aka for-profit) Loan Book Looks Frightening, A Few Thoughts on ESI’s Upcoming 2Q09 Earnings Release

July 22, 2009 – 1:11 pm

We wanted to highlight a few details from Sallie Mae’s earnings release last night and subsequent conference call that we think are important to followers of ITT Educational Services, Inc., Career Education Corp. and Corinthian Colleges, Inc. As we have discussed previously, we are closely watching the performance of Sallie Mae’s “non-traditional” [...]

By PAA Research | Posted in For-profit Education, Short Ideas | Also tagged , , , , , , | Comments (2)

The June NICS Background Checks Are In – Another Sequential Month to Month Decline

July 16, 2009 – 11:54 am

The June data for the number of background checks conducted under the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) was released this morning. Overall, the total number of background checks increased 18.1% on a YOY basis, but declined 5.4% from May to 968,145. The overall number of background checks is at the [...]

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June Traffic Data Suggests A Further Slowdown in Firearm Sales

July 14, 2009 – 1:30 pm

As we have noted in the past, we are actively following website traffic to the leading online gun dealers to gain a better gauge of current and future demand for firearms. Outside of the monthly data from the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS), we view website traffic to the leading online gun [...]

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Can the Income Based Repayment Plan Save ESI from A Tidal Wave of Student Loan Defaults?

July 5, 2009 – 1:30 pm

In our original post on ITT Educational Services, Inc., we argued that the company’s business model was structurally broken because it was no longer clear that students earned a positive return on their educational investment. After more than a decade of increasing tuition at an annual rate twice that of inflation, the affordability equation for [...]

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What To Do About Smith and Wesson (SWHC) Now

June 19, 2009 – 3:03 pm

SWHC shares have rallied dramatically today following the company’s positive pre-announcement after the close yesterday. As we highlighted in our original post on both SWHC and Sturm, Ruger (RGR), consensus estimates for SWHC’s 4Q09 were too low. In fact, here’s exactly what we wrote:
“We expect SWHC to beat 4Q09 earnings expectations, which will be [...]

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Survey Shows the Elasticity of Demand Is Starting to Creep Into the Higher Education Sector – The Acceptance Rates at Some SUNY Schools Are Lower than Some in the Ivy League

June 11, 2009 – 4:51 pm

One of the more remarkable aspects of the U.S. higher education system over the past two decades has been the relative inelasticity of demand in response to constantly rising tuition. Tuition at both public and private schools has more than doubled in the past 15-years, far outpacing the overall rate of inflation, yet [...]

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Another Decline in Traffic to Leading Online Gun Dealers, Query Data Suggest Gun Sales Will Continue To Slow

June 8, 2009 – 3:04 pm

In our original post on Smith and Wesson and Sturm, Ruger, we argued that declining traffic to leading online gun dealers in April was a critical indicator that firearm sales would fall off sharply. According to Compete.com, the total number of unique visitors to the leading online gun dealers in April declined 11.6% from [...]

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