Tag Archives: ARP

ARP Raises Guidance for 4Q09 Revenues, EPS – Consensus Estimates Appear Too Low for 2010

January 27, 2010 – 7:23 pm

After the close today, ARP issued a press release indicating that the company now expects to beat its prior revenue and EPS guidance for 4Q09.  You can read the full release here.  Management did not specifically identify the sources or magnitude of revenue upside.  The company has increased its full year guidance for EPS from [...]

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Feedback from Independent Reprographers Suggests the Potential for ARP to Beat Estimates is High, AIA Billings Index Could Finally Eclipse 50 in 1Q10

January 20, 2010 – 10:02 pm

We introduced ARPas an investment idea approximately 9-months ago. At that time we thought the stock had considerable upside based in large part on the company’s market leadership position and strong free cash flow generation.  This would enable the company to weather the current economic downturn through strategic cost cutting and debt reduction.  For the [...]

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PAA Research SMid Cap Portfolio Update

December 21, 2009 – 1:54 am

We wanted to provide you with an update on the performance of our SMid Cap portfolio, which we introduced on 9/3/09. As a reminder this is a “mock” portfolio with an initial value of $100 million. We plan to manage the portfolio like a long/short equity hedge fund.
Here are the highlights of the performance since [...]

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PAA Research SMid Cap Portfolio Update

November 17, 2009 – 12:42 am

We wanted to provide you with an update on the performance of our SMid Cap portfolio, which we introduced on 9/3/09. You can find our initial report here. As a reminder this is a “mock” portfolio with an initial value of $100 million. We plan to manage the portfolio like a long/short equity hedge fund.
Here [...]

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Canon’s Takeover Bid for Oce N.V. Validates Value of ARP Shares

November 16, 2009 – 11:20 am

CanonInc. today announced its intention to launch a takeover bid for Oce N.V., a leading manufacturer of digital printing systems and document management service provider.  Canon will launch a tender offer in 1Q10 at Eur8.60/share, or a 70% premium to Oce’s closing price on Friday.  The tender offer will also represent a 100% premium to [...]

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ARP’s Revenue “Air-Pocket”, FCF Is Still Impressive, The Outlook from Reprographers

October 6, 2009 – 3:26 pm

ARP shares are off sharply today in response to a press release in which the company announced it was lowering guidance for the year and had recently completed an amendment to its credit facility.  You can find all of the details here.  Overall, the  company reduced its full year EPS guidance from $0.50-$0.75 to $0.27-$0.33, [...]

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Introducing the PAA Research SMid-Cap Portfolio

September 3, 2009 – 8:40 am

One of the biggest issues we have struggled with since inception at PAA Research is how to manage the difficulties of providing static recommendations in a dynamic market.  For example, we introduced short recommendations for SWHC and RGR based on our view that the ”Obama effect” on firearms sales was poised to wane and that both stocks [...]

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Despite Weakness in the AIA Billings Index, Channel Checks Suggest Another Quarter of Upside Out of ARP – Looking at the Company’s Next Growth Vehicle

July 31, 2009 – 2:00 pm

We continue to recommend purchase of ARP shares, even after the 50% gain in the stock since we first introduced the idea.  The company will report results on August 6th, after the market close. We have received a few questions from investors about the potential for a revenue or earnings short fall from ARP given the recent [...]

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Recent Correction in ARP Shares Brings the FCF Yield Back to 20%+

June 24, 2009 – 10:23 am

Since reaching its YTD high of $10.11 on June 5, ARP shares have witnessed a 20% correction. At today’s price, ARP shares now sport a free cash flow (FCF) yield of 20%. After generating $20 million in FCF in the first quarter, we think ARP is well on its way to generating $70+ million [...]

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AIA Architecture Billings Index for April 2009 Supportive of Our Free Cash Flow Outlook for ARP

May 20, 2009 – 12:58 pm

The American Institute of Architects (AIA) released their Architecture Billings Index (ABI) for April 2009 today. Overall, the ABI index has been proven to be a solid indicator of future non-residential construction with a lag of approximately 5-months. Here are the highlights from the April 2009 release:

The overall billings index declined slightly from 43.7 [...]

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